3 ms·

The main question is susceptibility. The projection for models have been wrong. Out by orders of magnitudes on deaths. According to them Sweden should have 10 t

The main question is susceptibility. The projection for models have been wrong. Out by orders of magnitudes on deaths. According to them Sweden should have 10 times the deaths they have. The most obvious answer is that quite a lot of the population are already not susceptible to this virus for whatever reason. And we also know that the excess death rate on the under 40s is negligible - which is the majority of the population. The median age of deaths is over 80 in Europe. Since it affects the older population more than the younger, you want to catch it as early as possible. Catching it next year is more likely to kill you than catching it this year. There is no longer any justification for holding back the majority of the population when we can just retire the old and ask them to keep out of the way until the virus fully burns out.

amiga_500 6y ago
This is bad advice. We have no idea if it can be caught twice. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-co...
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  We know that some process has caused deaths to drop to near-zero in the places that were disaster zones at the beginning of April, even though they're no longer shut down and haven't entirely eliminated the virus. It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. (Of course, since I'm sure I'll be called on this, the fact that herd immunity is possible does not by itself prove it's a wise course of action.)
  - nkurz 6y ago
    > It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. The first paragraph of the article amiga_500 linked says: "People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds." I don't think there is significant doubt that immunity exists; the question is how long it remains in effect. The drop in deaths that you mention would be compatible with a several month long effective immunity period, but a herd immunity approach would probably not work well if reinfection is possible every year.
  - amiga_500 6y ago
    Poor quality stuff. If this can be caught again, there is no natural herd immunity.
  - notacoward 6y ago
    > It's hard to imagine Hard for who? This is Epidemiology 101 stuff. You don't have to totally eliminate a virus to go back to normal. If the few infected individuals are quickly identified and isolated, along with contacts, outbreaks can be contained quite well. Test, trace, and isolate. We've been managing many other diseases this way for years. There's little mystery to it.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      The mystery is that the drop happened even in areas such as Sweden which did not do this.
      - amiga_500 6y ago
        People in Sweden did social distance, did stop going out to bars and cafes etc.
BadCookie 6y ago
> Since it affects the older population more than the younger, you want to catch it as early as possible. Catching it next year is more likely to kill you than catching it this year. That might be true if you assume that there will not be a vaccine AND that medicine will not advance in the near future. But we have already seen medicine get better at treating Covid. (For example, doctors have learned not to use ventilators so much and proning is used more often, from what I understand.) I would rather get Covid now than a few months ago both because the medicine has gotten better and because the hospitals in my area are less overwhelmed—despite the fact that I am a few months older now. Furthermore, if I do have to die from Covid, I'd rather live a little longer first! > retire the old and ask them to keep out of the way Plenty of high-risk folks are not of retirement age. And many who are older live with younger family members for various reasons. It is not feasible for all of the high-risk people to "keep out of the way." Who will take care of high-risk elderly and disabled people who need help with bathing and toileting? What should grandparents do who are the guardians of their grandchildren? It's obvious that you have not thought this through.

amiga_500 6y ago

This is bad advice. We have no idea if it can be caught twice. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-co...

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
We know that some process has caused deaths to drop to near-zero in the places that were disaster zones at the beginning of April, even though they're no longer shut down and haven't entirely eliminated the virus. It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. (Of course, since I'm sure I'll be called on this, the fact that herd immunity is possible does not by itself prove it's a wise course of action.)
- nkurz 6y ago
  > It's hard to imagine what that process could be if not immunity. The first paragraph of the article amiga_500 linked says: "People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds." I don't think there is significant doubt that immunity exists; the question is how long it remains in effect. The drop in deaths that you mention would be compatible with a several month long effective immunity period, but a herd immunity approach would probably not work well if reinfection is possible every year.
- amiga_500 6y ago
  Poor quality stuff. If this can be caught again, there is no natural herd immunity.
- notacoward 6y ago
  > It's hard to imagine Hard for who? This is Epidemiology 101 stuff. You don't have to totally eliminate a virus to go back to normal. If the few infected individuals are quickly identified and isolated, along with contacts, outbreaks can be contained quite well. Test, trace, and isolate. We've been managing many other diseases this way for years. There's little mystery to it.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    The mystery is that the drop happened even in areas such as Sweden which did not do this.
    - amiga_500 6y ago
      People in Sweden did social distance, did stop going out to bars and cafes etc.

BadCookie 6y ago

> Since it affects the older population more than the younger, you want to catch it as early as possible. Catching it next year is more likely to kill you than catching it this year. That might be true if you assume that there will not be a vaccine AND that medicine will not advance in the near future. But we have already seen medicine get better at treating Covid. (For example, doctors have learned not to use ventilators so much and proning is used more often, from what I understand.) I would rather get Covid now than a few months ago both because the medicine has gotten better and because the hospitals in my area are less overwhelmed—despite the fact that I am a few months older now. Furthermore, if I do have to die from Covid, I'd rather live a little longer first! > retire the old and ask them to keep out of the way Plenty of high-risk folks are not of retirement age. And many who are older live with younger family members for various reasons. It is not feasible for all of the high-risk people to "keep out of the way." Who will take care of high-risk elderly and disabled people who need help with bathing and toileting? What should grandparents do who are the guardians of their grandchildren? It's obvious that you have not thought this through.