4 ms·

Yes, if we assume a that 50% of the US population becomes infected, a .65% IFR means that over a million Americans will die. Yes, this does not count complicat

by nkurz 6y ago

Yes, if we assume a that 50% of the US population becomes infected, a .65% IFR means that over a million Americans will die. Yes, this does not count complications. That said, do you now agree that your earlier statement that "the lethality is at least 1%" is contradicted by the CDC's current best estimate? If so, it would be considered good etiquette to say so, and to thank the other posters for providing you with better information. Or if you still believe your statement is correct, you should explain why the CDC is wrong (or being misinterpreted) and point to an authority you feel is more trustworthy. As it stands, it feels like you are galloping: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop.

api 6y ago
1% may be a bit high, but over a million casualties is really quite awful. Are people okay with that? I would be less cynical on the US response were it not for the fact that so many other countries have handled this so much better.
- Hydraulix989 6y ago
  Assuming the COVID-19 IFR is 0.2 (as discussed earlier), then it's on-par with seasonal flu. In which case, we should continue taking normal precautions like widespread wearing masks and social distancing, while especially vulnerable persons should continue sheltering in place. Closing "non-essential" businesses or shuttering medically-necessary surgical procedures again (such as tumor removal operations) are still extreme measures. Stanford University Epidemiology Study: The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data (the SF Gate article originally covering this study was taken down): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v...
  - api 6y ago
    It's already well past a bad flu season with only a fraction of the number of typical flu infections. I have never heard of a flu that fills up ERs to past capacity as is now happening in many cities. People are still repeating that it's just a flu?
    - Hydraulix989 6y ago
      Who is saying that? I'm only comparing the IFR.

by nkurz 6y ago

api 6y ago

1% may be a bit high, but over a million casualties is really quite awful. Are people okay with that? I would be less cynical on the US response were it not for the fact that so many other countries have handled this so much better.

Hydraulix989 6y ago
Assuming the COVID-19 IFR is 0.2 (as discussed earlier), then it's on-par with seasonal flu. In which case, we should continue taking normal precautions like widespread wearing masks and social distancing, while especially vulnerable persons should continue sheltering in place. Closing "non-essential" businesses or shuttering medically-necessary surgical procedures again (such as tumor removal operations) are still extreme measures. Stanford University Epidemiology Study: The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data (the SF Gate article originally covering this study was taken down): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v...
- api 6y ago
  It's already well past a bad flu season with only a fraction of the number of typical flu infections. I have never heard of a flu that fills up ERs to past capacity as is now happening in many cities. People are still repeating that it's just a flu?
  - Hydraulix989 6y ago
    Who is saying that? I'm only comparing the IFR.