11 ms·

I wonder if this will be the start of an Exodus of manufacturing away from China. Corporations are constantly under scrutiny with their brand messaging and sign

I wonder if this will be the start of an Exodus of manufacturing away from China. Corporations are constantly under scrutiny with their brand messaging and signaling with respect to various conflicts involving China, Hong Kong and the unrest within the United States. India on the other hand, is a Democratic republic, might help alleviate some issues. If India plays its cards right, they may pave the way for a manufacturing revolution for their 1+ billion people. For better or worse, only time will tell.

pankajdoharey 6y ago
Manufacturing is not just about cheap skilled labour it is about resources aswell. India lacks both cheap "skilled" labour and mineral resources. They do have low and unskilled labour in high numbers though. Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia.
- wow_no 6y ago
  India has enormous mineral resources
  - pankajdoharey 6y ago
    Indias steel production depends on Australian imported Coal, Indias Power production also depends on Imported coal from Australia and neighbourhood countries. India has virtually no Rare earth minerals. Indias has 1μm Semicondictor fab facilities which are good for producing Intel 80386, but nothing above that.
- achow 6y ago
  >India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia This is first time hearing it. However flawed the elected officials are in India, they do represent the popular sentiments of the population at that time.
  - pankajdoharey 6y ago
    Just to illustrate what am talking about, just yesterday a politically well connected gangster who surrendered got encountered, this same gangster has been seen with the top brass politicians in India including the home minister. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/vikas-dubey-caught-alive-brought-dead/articleshow/76901667.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/vikas-dubey-caught... It is suspected that if he were to be questioned entire nexus with top politicians would have been revealed.
    - sbmthakur 6y ago
      The incident is shady but it doesn't prove India is as democratic as Russia. The encounter of a notorious gangster who has committed numerous crimes isn't the same as assassinating a major political opponent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Boris_Nemtsov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Boris_Nemtsov
      - pankajdoharey 6y ago
        Yes please look up in the thread i have given more examples.
    - ra7 6y ago
      Your link has no mention of anything you claim. I fail to understand how this illustrates your claim that India is about as democratic as Russia, which in itself is unbelievable.
      - pankajdoharey 6y ago
        The link suggests that the democratic institutions are weak and works on the whims of politicians which is what the original comment suggested. Th notorious ganster has been seen with the very same politicians. Let me give you few more examples : 1. Just recently Indian government created an entity called 'PM Care Fund' for the collection of funds during corona pandemic but created explicit laws that people cannot file an RTI (Right to Information) to know what the government is using the funds for. The ability to exercise democratic rights is an essential right in democracy, democracy isn't just elections. https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fund-not-a-public-authority-under-rti-act-pms-office https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fun... 2. The Supreme Court judges have come out in public addressing the public about governments intervention in Judiciary. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-crisis-all-not-okay-democracy-at-stake-say-four-seniormost-judges/article10028921.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-cris... Free and fare Judiciary and democratic institutions are fundamental to a democracy. I hope this substantiates the original comment.
- quantummkv 6y ago
  > India lacks both cheap "skilled" labour and mineral resources. They do have low and unskilled labour in high numbers though Skills do not develop in a vacuum. You need to have requirements for a particular skill before you can spend resources to train workers in those skills. And the lack of large resources is also not that big of a problem. Unlike some countries, India tends to start and maintain friendly relations with countries that have mineral wealth like Australia, etc. And the Indian navy has enough heft to open and secure those supply lines in case someone decides to start a war. > Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia. Um, no. India has democratic elections whose results are accepted by all the political parties involved. No political party has mounted an actual challenge against any result or vote count or claimed large scale election rigging. You might not like Modi. That's acceptable. But to go around claiming that democracy does not exist because your favorite lost the elections is frankly disingenuous.
  - pankajdoharey 6y ago
    >Skills do not develop in a vacuum. You need to have requirements for a particular skill before you can spend resources to train workers in those skills. Yes for that you need Education, Indias effort at education are abysmal at best, much of the unskilled labour is either not educated or educated in humanities. > You might not like Modi. That's acceptable. But to go around claiming that democracy does not exist because your favorite lost the elections is frankly disingenuous. I was never referring to elections, Democracy is more than elections. It is about public participation, India is run very much like a authoritarian regime with highly corrupt officials.
  - harichinnan 6y ago
    Parliamentary republic with brute majority would feel like a dictatorship. There's no real seperation of legislative and executive branches. Judiciary largely plays to win post retirement careers. But that usually gets fixed after an election or two. Democracies are often compared to China or Singapore on how they are inefficient in addressing long term issues. A parliamentary republic is a fair compromise between an autocracy and a gridlocked presidential republic like in US. If a brute majority mandate is used well, a party can bring along revolutionary changes in short notice.
- rational_indian 6y ago
  > Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia. Lol! A case of sour grapes?
  - pankajdoharey 6y ago
    I am not saying this, 4 Supreme Court judges have said this. RTI has been diluted so you dont get a reply to the anything. Democracy is more than elections.
    - kburman 6y ago
      Source?
      - pankajdoharey 6y ago
        I am sorry, i forgot to post the source earlier : https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-crisis-all-not-okay-democracy-at-stake-say-four-seniormost-judges/article10028921.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-cris...
- sbmthakur 6y ago
  > Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia. Could you share how did you gauge that? Different leaders (from different parties) have led India since Putin took Russia's helm: Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi
  - pankajdoharey 6y ago
    Yes just look at 'PM Care fund' it is explicitly outside of RTI, and thus prevents people from practising their democratic right to question usage of funds.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - sbmthakur 6y ago
      And what is the level of coverage of Russia's equivalent of RTI? (assuming they have one)
      - thewhitetulip 6y ago
        you are acting as if the BJP gave India the RTI. Congress gave the country RTI. and bjp has been systematically dismanteling RTI step by step. We won't have a functioning RTI in a few years. and the existing coverage of RTI in India is abysmal. This you'd know if you knew and read the facts. the govt has severely cut funding of RTI source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/over-63-per-cent-cut-in-budget-for-rti-cic/articleshow/62745532.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/ov... 63% cut in funding of RTI and CIC, both systems who are responsible for transparency.
        sbmthakur 6y ago
        To a hammer, everything looks like a nail. My comment was irrespective of party and your reply doesn't even answer my question. You may continue with your wild predictions.
- harichinnan 6y ago
  I have misgivings with the ruling party at center. But to claim that India isn't Democratic is like saying US is autocratic because of Trump. It's true, India needs to go back to it's secular roots. But the elections aren't faked.
  - pankajdoharey 6y ago
    Democracy is not just about elections. For instance one of the powers that people have in a democracy is to question the usage of funds and be able to get information about them. Similar to Freedom of Information act in US, India has RTI (Right to Information). But government has made explicit laws in some cases to keep institutions out of RTI so people cannot practice their right. Just recently during corona pandemic Indian government created a 'PM Care Fund' and passed explicit laws that it cannot be Audited or be under RTI, so there is no information on how much money people have donated for the cause or where is the government using it. https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fund-not-a-public-authority-under-rti-act-pms-office https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fun...
- puranjay 6y ago
  As critical as I have been of the current political regime in India, calling it "Putinesque democracy" is a gross exaggeration. My state is a prime example - it's governed by a party that came into being barely half a decade ago and its first election victory was largely fuelled by grassroots activists and workers. It's about as democratic as it can get. Even within the ruling party, democracy is quite active - the party presidents change every few years.
throwaway4425 6y ago
I think this will depend on how much of an ally they are in the future. If they are seen as an economic threat, like Japan in the 80s, the media will probably start to report more on the atrocities committed in Kashmir along with the new Citizenship Law that appears to target or disadvantaged Muslims. Vietnam might he another alternative, but they are also a communist country, so the optics might not be better than China.
- pankajdoharey 6y ago
  Believe it or not Capitalists love Communist countries as manufacturing hubs, they can circumvent labour laws, unions etc. Vietnam Is an ok destination for skilled labour but is hardly the resource heaven than China is.
- 0xFFFE 6y ago
  It is appalling how despite the availability of information online, people still choose not to verify what they hear on the MSM. Here is the link to the Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 on GOI website. It's only a 2 page document. http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2019/214646.pdf http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2019/214646.pdf It was amended to accommodate persecuted minorities from *neighboring countries" of India. It has nothing to do with the Citizens of India.
  - d3nj4l 6y ago
    This is blatant disinformation by omitting context. The CAA itself is discriminatory, since it does not apply to muslims, but in the context of the National Register of Citizens (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens) it becomes even more sinister. The NRC requires people to prove their citizenship through documentation, which is very difficult for large parts of India's population, who might be straight up illiterate or lack any kind of documentation whatsoever. The CAA makes it easier for non-Muslims to claim citizenship while Muslims slip through the cracks; that is the point of contention.
    - 6y ago
jariel 6y ago
There will be no 'exodus of existential consequence'. But there will be a shift away. China is producing a level of design and manufacture that nobody can compete with. Other countries can take on some of the low-end stuff, but there's just a lot they will not be able to do. China has an educated workforce that also works at very low wages, and a government bent on providing the infrastructure necessary to make it all work. Huawei is not going to be reproduced in Vietnam for example.
- puranjay 6y ago
  Agreed. China's wages have risen steadily to the point that they are substantially higher than the competition (Vietnam, India, etc.). Yet during the same time, their share of global manufacturing has also increased. Low wages are only part of the reason for China's manufacturing dominance. A lot has to do with supply chains, industrial expertise and skilled workforce.
dehrmann 6y ago
Maybe, but don't forget that Foxconn is Taiwanese, so there could be an idiosyncratic political angle to this, too.
puranjay 6y ago
One of the key reasons for manufacturers to move to India is the massive domestic market. Apple's devices have to be imported into India which attracts an import duty. Minus this tax, Apple's products would be substantially cheaper, which would help it sell a lot more units.
- pradn 6y ago
  While India is a leader (currently #2 behind China) in units of smartphones sold, their value is only ~20 billion of the ~500 billion USD smartphone market. I don't see extra sales in the superpremium tier being a strong motivator. In India, iPhones are luxury goods, where the higher price makes them more attractive. The sort of person who can afford ~8x average monthly earnings for a phone can also afford a ~6x multiplier. (That's why iPhones are popular in movies for villains and corrupt politicians.)
  - ra7 6y ago
    iPhone price in India is one of the highest anywhere in the world because of import duties. For a country obsessed with social status and a large upper middle class with increasing disposable income, a domestically manufactured cheaper iPhone will sell enough to make a real difference in Apple’s revenues.
    - manquer 6y ago
      Apple has no intention of diluting their brand by selling the same flagship phone cheap in India or anywhere else no matter the duty, their BOM is very very cheap, they can drop their price if they want to. The would rather sell SE , refurbs, older gen for such markets, while this is better than nothing and has some traction , a 2-3 year old tech is perhaps not as attractive when it will still cost $500 and more when better offerings are there Import duty is in 20-30% (just got hiked to 30 this year) range , while it is substantial making it zero will not change the market significantly in Apple’s favour given the massive price difference, no mainstream phone successfully sells at the 1500 price point the way only Apple can.
theduder99 6y ago
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/07/new-data-shows-us-companies-are-definitely-leaving-china/#503f555b40fe https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/07/new-data-s...

pankajdoharey 6y ago

Manufacturing is not just about cheap skilled labour it is about resources aswell. India lacks both cheap "skilled" labour and mineral resources. They do have low and unskilled labour in high numbers though. Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia.

wow_no 6y ago
India has enormous mineral resources
- pankajdoharey 6y ago
  Indias steel production depends on Australian imported Coal, Indias Power production also depends on Imported coal from Australia and neighbourhood countries. India has virtually no Rare earth minerals. Indias has 1μm Semicondictor fab facilities which are good for producing Intel 80386, but nothing above that.
achow 6y ago
>India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia This is first time hearing it. However flawed the elected officials are in India, they do represent the popular sentiments of the population at that time.
- pankajdoharey 6y ago
  Just to illustrate what am talking about, just yesterday a politically well connected gangster who surrendered got encountered, this same gangster has been seen with the top brass politicians in India including the home minister. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/vikas-dubey-caught-alive-brought-dead/articleshow/76901667.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/vikas-dubey-caught... It is suspected that if he were to be questioned entire nexus with top politicians would have been revealed.
  - sbmthakur 6y ago
    The incident is shady but it doesn't prove India is as democratic as Russia. The encounter of a notorious gangster who has committed numerous crimes isn't the same as assassinating a major political opponent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Boris_Nemtsov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Boris_Nemtsov
    - pankajdoharey 6y ago
      Yes please look up in the thread i have given more examples.
  - ra7 6y ago
    Your link has no mention of anything you claim. I fail to understand how this illustrates your claim that India is about as democratic as Russia, which in itself is unbelievable.
    - pankajdoharey 6y ago
      The link suggests that the democratic institutions are weak and works on the whims of politicians which is what the original comment suggested. Th notorious ganster has been seen with the very same politicians. Let me give you few more examples : 1. Just recently Indian government created an entity called 'PM Care Fund' for the collection of funds during corona pandemic but created explicit laws that people cannot file an RTI (Right to Information) to know what the government is using the funds for. The ability to exercise democratic rights is an essential right in democracy, democracy isn't just elections. https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fund-not-a-public-authority-under-rti-act-pms-office https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fun... 2. The Supreme Court judges have come out in public addressing the public about governments intervention in Judiciary. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-crisis-all-not-okay-democracy-at-stake-say-four-seniormost-judges/article10028921.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-cris... Free and fare Judiciary and democratic institutions are fundamental to a democracy. I hope this substantiates the original comment.
quantummkv 6y ago
> India lacks both cheap "skilled" labour and mineral resources. They do have low and unskilled labour in high numbers though Skills do not develop in a vacuum. You need to have requirements for a particular skill before you can spend resources to train workers in those skills. And the lack of large resources is also not that big of a problem. Unlike some countries, India tends to start and maintain friendly relations with countries that have mineral wealth like Australia, etc. And the Indian navy has enough heft to open and secure those supply lines in case someone decides to start a war. > Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia. Um, no. India has democratic elections whose results are accepted by all the political parties involved. No political party has mounted an actual challenge against any result or vote count or claimed large scale election rigging. You might not like Modi. That's acceptable. But to go around claiming that democracy does not exist because your favorite lost the elections is frankly disingenuous.
- pankajdoharey 6y ago
  >Skills do not develop in a vacuum. You need to have requirements for a particular skill before you can spend resources to train workers in those skills. Yes for that you need Education, Indias effort at education are abysmal at best, much of the unskilled labour is either not educated or educated in humanities. > You might not like Modi. That's acceptable. But to go around claiming that democracy does not exist because your favorite lost the elections is frankly disingenuous. I was never referring to elections, Democracy is more than elections. It is about public participation, India is run very much like a authoritarian regime with highly corrupt officials.
- harichinnan 6y ago
  Parliamentary republic with brute majority would feel like a dictatorship. There's no real seperation of legislative and executive branches. Judiciary largely plays to win post retirement careers. But that usually gets fixed after an election or two. Democracies are often compared to China or Singapore on how they are inefficient in addressing long term issues. A parliamentary republic is a fair compromise between an autocracy and a gridlocked presidential republic like in US. If a brute majority mandate is used well, a party can bring along revolutionary changes in short notice.
rational_indian 6y ago
> Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia. Lol! A case of sour grapes?
- pankajdoharey 6y ago
  I am not saying this, 4 Supreme Court judges have said this. RTI has been diluted so you dont get a reply to the anything. Democracy is more than elections.
  - kburman 6y ago
    Source?
    - pankajdoharey 6y ago
      I am sorry, i forgot to post the source earlier : https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-crisis-all-not-okay-democracy-at-stake-say-four-seniormost-judges/article10028921.ece https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/supreme-court-cris...
sbmthakur 6y ago
> Also India is just about as democratic as Putins Russia. Could you share how did you gauge that? Different leaders (from different parties) have led India since Putin took Russia's helm: Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi
- pankajdoharey 6y ago
  Yes just look at 'PM Care fund' it is explicitly outside of RTI, and thus prevents people from practising their democratic right to question usage of funds.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - sbmthakur 6y ago
    And what is the level of coverage of Russia's equivalent of RTI? (assuming they have one)
    - thewhitetulip 6y ago
      you are acting as if the BJP gave India the RTI. Congress gave the country RTI. and bjp has been systematically dismanteling RTI step by step. We won't have a functioning RTI in a few years. and the existing coverage of RTI in India is abysmal. This you'd know if you knew and read the facts. the govt has severely cut funding of RTI source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/over-63-per-cent-cut-in-budget-for-rti-cic/articleshow/62745532.cms https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/ov... 63% cut in funding of RTI and CIC, both systems who are responsible for transparency.
      - sbmthakur 6y ago
        To a hammer, everything looks like a nail. My comment was irrespective of party and your reply doesn't even answer my question. You may continue with your wild predictions.
harichinnan 6y ago
I have misgivings with the ruling party at center. But to claim that India isn't Democratic is like saying US is autocratic because of Trump. It's true, India needs to go back to it's secular roots. But the elections aren't faked.
- pankajdoharey 6y ago
  Democracy is not just about elections. For instance one of the powers that people have in a democracy is to question the usage of funds and be able to get information about them. Similar to Freedom of Information act in US, India has RTI (Right to Information). But government has made explicit laws in some cases to keep institutions out of RTI so people cannot practice their right. Just recently during corona pandemic Indian government created a 'PM Care Fund' and passed explicit laws that it cannot be Audited or be under RTI, so there is no information on how much money people have donated for the cause or where is the government using it. https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fund-not-a-public-authority-under-rti-act-pms-office https://www.thequint.com/news/india/coronavirus-pm-cares-fun...
puranjay 6y ago
As critical as I have been of the current political regime in India, calling it "Putinesque democracy" is a gross exaggeration. My state is a prime example - it's governed by a party that came into being barely half a decade ago and its first election victory was largely fuelled by grassroots activists and workers. It's about as democratic as it can get. Even within the ruling party, democracy is quite active - the party presidents change every few years.

throwaway4425 6y ago

I think this will depend on how much of an ally they are in the future. If they are seen as an economic threat, like Japan in the 80s, the media will probably start to report more on the atrocities committed in Kashmir along with the new Citizenship Law that appears to target or disadvantaged Muslims. Vietnam might he another alternative, but they are also a communist country, so the optics might not be better than China.

pankajdoharey 6y ago
Believe it or not Capitalists love Communist countries as manufacturing hubs, they can circumvent labour laws, unions etc. Vietnam Is an ok destination for skilled labour but is hardly the resource heaven than China is.
0xFFFE 6y ago
It is appalling how despite the availability of information online, people still choose not to verify what they hear on the MSM. Here is the link to the Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 on GOI website. It's only a 2 page document. http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2019/214646.pdf http://egazette.nic.in/WriteReadData/2019/214646.pdf It was amended to accommodate persecuted minorities from *neighboring countries" of India. It has nothing to do with the Citizens of India.
- d3nj4l 6y ago
  This is blatant disinformation by omitting context. The CAA itself is discriminatory, since it does not apply to muslims, but in the context of the National Register of Citizens (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Register_of_Citizens) it becomes even more sinister. The NRC requires people to prove their citizenship through documentation, which is very difficult for large parts of India's population, who might be straight up illiterate or lack any kind of documentation whatsoever. The CAA makes it easier for non-Muslims to claim citizenship while Muslims slip through the cracks; that is the point of contention.
  - 6y ago

jariel 6y ago

There will be no 'exodus of existential consequence'. But there will be a shift away. China is producing a level of design and manufacture that nobody can compete with. Other countries can take on some of the low-end stuff, but there's just a lot they will not be able to do. China has an educated workforce that also works at very low wages, and a government bent on providing the infrastructure necessary to make it all work. Huawei is not going to be reproduced in Vietnam for example.

puranjay 6y ago
Agreed. China's wages have risen steadily to the point that they are substantially higher than the competition (Vietnam, India, etc.). Yet during the same time, their share of global manufacturing has also increased. Low wages are only part of the reason for China's manufacturing dominance. A lot has to do with supply chains, industrial expertise and skilled workforce.

dehrmann 6y ago

Maybe, but don't forget that Foxconn is Taiwanese, so there could be an idiosyncratic political angle to this, too.

puranjay 6y ago

One of the key reasons for manufacturers to move to India is the massive domestic market. Apple's devices have to be imported into India which attracts an import duty. Minus this tax, Apple's products would be substantially cheaper, which would help it sell a lot more units.

pradn 6y ago
While India is a leader (currently #2 behind China) in units of smartphones sold, their value is only ~20 billion of the ~500 billion USD smartphone market. I don't see extra sales in the superpremium tier being a strong motivator. In India, iPhones are luxury goods, where the higher price makes them more attractive. The sort of person who can afford ~8x average monthly earnings for a phone can also afford a ~6x multiplier. (That's why iPhones are popular in movies for villains and corrupt politicians.)
- ra7 6y ago
  iPhone price in India is one of the highest anywhere in the world because of import duties. For a country obsessed with social status and a large upper middle class with increasing disposable income, a domestically manufactured cheaper iPhone will sell enough to make a real difference in Apple’s revenues.
  - manquer 6y ago
    Apple has no intention of diluting their brand by selling the same flagship phone cheap in India or anywhere else no matter the duty, their BOM is very very cheap, they can drop their price if they want to. The would rather sell SE , refurbs, older gen for such markets, while this is better than nothing and has some traction , a 2-3 year old tech is perhaps not as attractive when it will still cost $500 and more when better offerings are there Import duty is in 20-30% (just got hiked to 30 this year) range , while it is substantial making it zero will not change the market significantly in Apple’s favour given the massive price difference, no mainstream phone successfully sells at the 1500 price point the way only Apple can.

theduder99 6y ago

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/07/new-data-shows-us-companies-are-definitely-leaving-china/#503f555b40fe https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/04/07/new-data-s...