5 ms·

It would be nice if we counted COVID-19 deaths the way we count flu deaths, which is generally using the "excess deaths" figure. Why some states would go with "

It would be nice if we counted COVID-19 deaths the way we count flu deaths, which is generally using the "excess deaths" figure. Why some states would go with "50% of excess deaths" or "65% of excess deaths" seems like an odd choice. Are there non-political reasons for doing that?

pwinnski 6y ago
It seems that we are much more generous in how we count flu deaths, so that 15,620[0] confirmed tracked deaths in the most recent flu season ends up as an estimated 42,000. All the comparisons I've seen this year have been using the 24,000-62,000 flu estimate uncritically when comparing to COVID-19, but apples to apples is apparently 15,620 for flu and 132,056 for COVID-19[1]. Perhaps flu-like estimates will come later, since the CDC tends to wait until the end of flu seasons to release those numbers. We're clearly nowhere near the end of COVID-19 season. [0] https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-0534499... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case...
- Jedd 6y ago
  How we count flu deaths ... where?
  - pwinnski 6y ago
    The CDC, in America.
- sparrish 6y ago
  When is the end of COVID-19 season? Why would the COVID-19 season have different dates than the flu season?
  - pwinnski 6y ago
    We have a very long history with the flu, and know that historically, the season ends around March every year. COVID-19 is new, and was barely getting started in March. Despite early claims that it would definitely taper off in the summer, apparently based on the fact that the flu does, it is not tapering off at all. We have no idea when COVID-19 will taper off, or if it will before herd immunity is reached (with or without a vaccine). So we don't know yet when the end will be, and they have different dates because they are different viruses.
guscost 6y ago
The reaction to this pandemic is in fact killing a great many people. In a normal flu season the whole country doesn’t lose its marbles a̶n̶d̶ ̶d̶e̶s̶c̶e̶n̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶t̶o̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶c̶h̶a̶o̶s̶.
- happytoexplain 6y ago
  Where does this us-vs-them, "descend into general chaos" interpretation come from aside from petty identity politics (which I give HN users the benefit of the doubt about)? To be clear: I mean as opposed to giving people the benefit of the doubt - that people are, in general, acting on best information and that any urgency you perceive is an understandable result of it being a life and death situation. "Descending" into "chaos" is such a common attack on - what? People buying too much toilet paper? Orders to wear masks? It seems so unnecessarily hyperdramatic and divisive. Edit: For context, I admit the devastation to life from both "sides". But I have no strong conclusion either way - I can't figure out if we're erring on too much lockdown or too little lockdown so far.
  - guscost 6y ago
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-attacks-strokes-and-even-appendicitis-vanish-from-hospitals/2020/04/19/9ca3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-at... https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931 https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931 https://agoodwar.com/the-ban-on-elective-procedures-is-killing-more-people-than-covid-19 https://agoodwar.com/the-ban-on-elective-procedures-is-killi... https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/a-tale-of-two-epidemics-when-covid-19-and-opioid-addiction-collide-2020042019569 https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/a-tale-of-two-epidemics-... https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2764584 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/... https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/295664 https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/295664 https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/14/isolated-uk-care-home-residents-fading-away-say-staff-and-families https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/14/isolated-uk-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/13/hospitals-seeing-more-severe-child-abuse-injuries-during-coronavirus/3116395001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/13/hospit... https://www.businessinsider.com/school-closures-may-not-prevent-coronavirus-spread-experts-say-2020-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/school-closures-may-not-prev...
nutjob2 6y ago
I don't see how an excess death caused indirectly by the virus is different to one caused directly, when measuring broadly (ie not for epidemiological purposes). Those people died because of the virus, and the cost of the virus in lives should be measured that way.
- jtbayly 6y ago
  One of the important questions that comes up with this data is whether excessive fear of Covid-19 is leading to many other unnecessary deaths. It is not clear what percent of these 35% would fall into that category.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

pwinnski 6y ago

It seems that we are much more generous in how we count flu deaths, so that 15,620[0] confirmed tracked deaths in the most recent flu season ends up as an estimated 42,000. All the comparisons I've seen this year have been using the 24,000-62,000 flu estimate uncritically when comparing to COVID-19, but apples to apples is apparently 15,620 for flu and 132,056 for COVID-19[1]. Perhaps flu-like estimates will come later, since the CDC tends to wait until the end of flu seasons to release those numbers. We're clearly nowhere near the end of COVID-19 season. [0] https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-0534499... [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case...

Jedd 6y ago
How we count flu deaths ... where?
- pwinnski 6y ago
  The CDC, in America.
sparrish 6y ago
When is the end of COVID-19 season? Why would the COVID-19 season have different dates than the flu season?
- pwinnski 6y ago
  We have a very long history with the flu, and know that historically, the season ends around March every year. COVID-19 is new, and was barely getting started in March. Despite early claims that it would definitely taper off in the summer, apparently based on the fact that the flu does, it is not tapering off at all. We have no idea when COVID-19 will taper off, or if it will before herd immunity is reached (with or without a vaccine). So we don't know yet when the end will be, and they have different dates because they are different viruses.

guscost 6y ago

The reaction to this pandemic is in fact killing a great many people. In a normal flu season the whole country doesn’t lose its marbles a̶n̶d̶ ̶d̶e̶s̶c̶e̶n̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶t̶o̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶c̶h̶a̶o̶s̶.

happytoexplain 6y ago
Where does this us-vs-them, "descend into general chaos" interpretation come from aside from petty identity politics (which I give HN users the benefit of the doubt about)? To be clear: I mean as opposed to giving people the benefit of the doubt - that people are, in general, acting on best information and that any urgency you perceive is an understandable result of it being a life and death situation. "Descending" into "chaos" is such a common attack on - what? People buying too much toilet paper? Orders to wear masks? It seems so unnecessarily hyperdramatic and divisive. Edit: For context, I admit the devastation to life from both "sides". But I have no strong conclusion either way - I can't figure out if we're erring on too much lockdown or too little lockdown so far.
- guscost 6y ago
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-attacks-strokes-and-even-appendicitis-vanish-from-hospitals/2020/04/19/9ca3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-at... https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931 https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931 https://agoodwar.com/the-ban-on-elective-procedures-is-killing-more-people-than-covid-19 https://agoodwar.com/the-ban-on-elective-procedures-is-killi... https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/a-tale-of-two-epidemics-when-covid-19-and-opioid-addiction-collide-2020042019569 https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/a-tale-of-two-epidemics-... https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2764584 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/... https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/295664 https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/295664 https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/14/isolated-uk-care-home-residents-fading-away-say-staff-and-families https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/14/isolated-uk-... https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/13/hospitals-seeing-more-severe-child-abuse-injuries-during-coronavirus/3116395001/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/13/hospit... https://www.businessinsider.com/school-closures-may-not-prevent-coronavirus-spread-experts-say-2020-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/school-closures-may-not-prev...

nutjob2 6y ago

I don't see how an excess death caused indirectly by the virus is different to one caused directly, when measuring broadly (ie not for epidemiological purposes). Those people died because of the virus, and the cost of the virus in lives should be measured that way.

jtbayly 6y ago
One of the important questions that comes up with this data is whether excessive fear of Covid-19 is leading to many other unnecessary deaths. It is not clear what percent of these 35% would fall into that category.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]