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"The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the resu
by joezydeco 6y ago
"The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread:"
https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880 https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
- Jtsummers 6y agoRight, while not explicitly discussed in terms of Simpson's paradox, part of the article does discuss things by breaking down the numbers between AZ/FL/TX (current US hotspots) and the rest of the US. Also, unless you are @mbeckett on Twitter, I'd recommend changing your comment to be a quote as you've repeated their content verbatim.
- joezydeco 6y agoThanks for pointing that out.
- hcrisp 6y agoIt would be better if the plots in that thread showing Arizona/Florida/Texas vs All Other States used the same y-axis scale. They don't and it is hard to tell if a "trend" in shape is of the same order or not. If you view the US states in log-log plot [0] you can see that Arizona (as well as all the other hot spot states) has a much lower doubling rate (for deaths) than New York did for an equivalent number of deaths. Something strange is going on, and it can't all be explained away with Simpson's paradox. [0] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths®ion=US https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths®ion=US