6 ms·

Pure gut reaction based off my own "fitness journey", and my family's: these things will all make really lovely racks for drying that rug that you don't really

Pure gut reaction based off my own "fitness journey", and my family's: these things will all make really lovely racks for drying that rug that you don't really want to put through the dryer because it would stress the motor. I kid…I don't kid. The mute treadmill. The silent exercise bike. All that unused exercise equipment, sitting in basements, forlorn. Everybody buys this stuff, assuming they are going to really get into it hard. And they won't. Most likely. Will a few people? Sure. Will the majority? Nah. I straight up don't kid: going to the gym is (was) somewhat akin to going to church for me. (Still not open in Toronto yet.) You can worship or work out at home, but there's something I just can't quantify or articulate about having a space to go to that is NOT your home where you push yourself physically, and are not distracted by trying to find something on Netflix, or the dog getting in the way of kettlebell swings. So I'm skeptical. If I were a shorting man, I'd short these companies, because eventually these gadgets will go the way of all those Bowflex past: extremely expensive dust magnets. (Or perhaps I'm a freak; I have worked remotely for 5 years, and am highly highly productive. Perhaps this is all a quirk of my psychology.)

azinman2 6y ago
Fitness is on the rise generally (or at least pre-covid), and the trend is away from gyms. It’s Barry‘s bootcamp, yoga classes, Pilates, spin, etc etc. In a covid world, the pelotons and mirrors make a lot of sense. The question is will it stick afterwards.
- perardi 6y ago
  I will grant you there was a diversification in "wellness" fitness options. But I think my point still stands with yoga et al: you were still going somewhere else. I'm just quite biased people will end up working out at home. (I actually suspect the boutique fitness stuff may come out of this better than big ol' boxes full of treadmills like Planet Fitness. It's easier to social distance and sanitized with defined class times and appointment. One of the big chain gyms here is doing just that; you set a time to go for the gym, and then you get out so they can sanitize the equipment. Which is nice, but labor-intensive. I can't imagine $15/month warehouses full of weights maintaining that. https://www.goodlifefitness.com/goodlife-standard https://www.goodlifefitness.com/goodlife-standard)
  - matwood 6y ago
    Possibly. The problem with the boutique fitness places is they make all the at home options look cheap.
tempestn 6y ago
I've been regularly working out at home for over 10 years now. For me being able to work out at home is considerably more effective than having to go someplace else; that added friction of driving somewhere, getting changed, etc., just makes it far more of a hassle compared to it being part of the start of my day at home. I do think it's important to have a decent space in your house to work out, which would certainly be an impediment to some. But in the past that space has been our living room (hardwood floors, fortunately) with the coffee table pushed up against the wall. Having a video workout program to follow can also be very helpful for motivation and continuity. What I can't understand is what value this Mirror adds. I regularly do BeachBody workout programs, which I watch on our TV. Used to be by buying their DVD sets; now it's through their streaming app. But that's cheaper than the mirror program, with more content, and doesn't require buying a $1500 mirror up front. Everyone already has a TV, and I don't believe the portrait orientation is even really a benefit. So yeah, I'm bullish on home workouts, but bearish on Mirror.
- perardi 6y ago
  "So yeah, I'm bullish on home workouts, but bearish on Mirror." Yeah, if my psychology was set up for it, I'd be doing those hill sprints in the park near me in addition to perfunctory pushups. But in either case: none of it involves spending $1500 on some magic mirror.
- Darkphibre 6y ago
  I think a big difference is the fact that it's, you know, a mirror: You can see your movements and the instructor's at the same time, and adjust your form to mirror theirs. For me, going to the gym (technically Bar Method) was always done with an instructor, so that I could get their feedback on proper form and adjustments to my routine.
  - jdhzzz 6y ago
    Exactly. Still misses the feedback portion, but in a world without access to gyms this is a step closer to being in the room in an instructor led class. It's not worth it to me but definitely a value-add over videos.
ludamad 6y ago
Sunken cost psychology works in your favour when you commute to the gym, you want to justify that time. You're less likely to not doing anything once there. That, and everyone and everything there is gym
- perardi 6y ago
  I love putting it in terms of sunk cost psychology. That's a great way to put it.
simonebrunozzi 6y ago
I disagree with you on being skeptical - I think (my humble 0.02) that you are in the minority. People still buy these gadgets despite for the past 40 years or so they mostly kept collecting dust at home. But I agree on something else: I would also short these companies, for other reasons. I think there's no moat large enough to defend them in the future. Also, you say you're "highly highly productive". Hey man, please share more about it. I believe you, and I want to know more!
- fastball 6y ago
  My reading of the GC was not that he doesn't think anyone will buy it, but that if they do they won't keep up their sub, which is kinda the whole point.
  - perardi 6y ago
    Yup. That's the short of it: they'll buy the bike, realize they're not using the bike, and not re-up their subscription.
- perardi 6y ago
  Ah, if we're dropping bona fides—my fitness, pre-quarantine fattening: https://www.instagram.com/p/B6B6ceUB8he/ https://www.instagram.com/p/B6B6ceUB8he/ And as for productivity, I'll just link to this, and see if anyone has snarky comments on how rapidly this project has moved or not: https://www.wolframalpha.com https://www.wolframalpha.com
staycoolboy 6y ago
Bowflex is still alive and well, they haven't gone anywhere. There is a HUGE market for this stuff, even gym subscriptions, that never, ever get used. I was friends with a Crossfit licensee and he said only 50% of people that paid actually showed up every week, and only ~85% showed up every month. The other 15%? They just kept reauthorizing charges, showing up every now and then when he called them, and then forgot again. It's a cash cow. The only downside to equipment is losing revenue to resale on Craigslist or Nextdoor.
- delfinom 6y ago
  >There is a HUGE market for this stuff, even gym subscriptions, that never, ever get used. I was friends with a Crossfit licensee and he said only 50% of people that paid actually showed up every week, and only ~85% showed up every month. The other 15%? They just kept reauthorizing charges, showing up every now and then when he called them, and then forgot again. Basically how all gyms work, human laziness and human financial incompetence, though theres also a sprinkle of shady stall tactics by gyms for cancellation.
est31 6y ago
There is a great cgp grey video about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snAhsXyO3Ck https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snAhsXyO3Ck TLDW: create areas with boundaries inside your home and make sure you follow these boundaries.
matwood 6y ago
I was a hardcore gym user pre-pandemic. My wife and I also did various gym classes together for ‘dates’. Because of lack of time, I was already building a home weight gym, and the pandemic forced me finish. My wife wasn’t a work at home type of person though. Then we got a Peloton. She rides it nearly every day, and has a group of people she rides with including IRL friends and people she met online. The difference of exercise equipment today vs. yesterday is the group and community aspect. I was skeptical, but I have added Peloton rides to my normal weight workouts. The instructors are good, and the connected aspect of the metrics (I’m numbers driven) pulls me along for more and harder workouts.
guiambros 6y ago
To offer a different perspective: I used to hate exercising. I'm the type of person who paid a gym just because I loved the idea of being in shape, but had no interest in putting in the effort. With the obvious realization that I wasn't getting younger, I decided to get a Peloton last year, and immediately got hooked. I started riding 3-4 times/week, but since the lockdown started I created the habit of riding every single day; I'm now on my 16-week streak. But the surprising part is that I'm actually enjoying it. So I'm the opposite spectrum - I'm long on these companies, and strong believe they'll continue to do well post-Covid. The model is brilliant: fixed cost, variable income, and control of the entire ecosystem -- hw + sw + content + ownership of the customer experience. Unless they screw up on execution, they have a very profitable path ahead. Just sad that Mirror was acquired by Lululemon, instead of Peloton; it would be a killer combination in terms of content + hardware. But it wouldn't surprise me if they come up with something similar in the future.
- edoceo 6y ago
  I think, and my experience was, after 16-weeks of daily excercise you'll enjoy it - expensive bike or not. My first attempt (20+ yr ago);was just running 30 minutes a day, 5d/w - and it was great, then work and life got in the way. Eventually I got back in to daily...at first hard but over the "hump" and now, I need at least 30 minutes I'm glad you found enjoyment in health, but one doesn't need the expensive hardware to get there
  - guiambros 6y ago
    Oh, couldn't agree more. The bike was what clicked for me (plus the personal analytics, friends being there, etc), but it's not because of the bike that I started exercising. I also know folks who indeed use it as a very expensive towel hanger, so not dismissing OP's argument. My meta point is that from a business perspective, I'm very optimistic with the future of at-home exercise - Peloton, Mirror, p.volve, be.come, etc.
Swizec 6y ago
My girlfriend wanted a Peloton. I said okay but first we're getting a $300 version from Amazon. If you use it every day for 2 months and it isn't sufficient, we can get a Peloton. We now have a $300 clothes rack. Luckily it wasn't $2000. If you're the kind of person who doesn't work out regularly, a gadget won't make you work out regularly. It will at first. When the novelty wears off, it won't. Just like the impact every TODO app and productivity system has on me. You must first become the kind of person who works out. Then buy the gadgets.
- rconti 6y ago
  Was she using the Peloton classes on a tablet you already had? I know a fair number of people that have gone the cheap-Amazon-bike-plus-tablet route and it seems to work well. That would be a fair comparison; it seems a bit sillier to compare entirely self-directed bike workouts, though. Sometimes a big spend CAN drive bigger use. I pulled the trigger on a(n expensive to me) carbon fiber road bike about 12 years ago; ultimately I justified it to myself that I'd feel guilty if I spent so much and DIDN'T ride it. So far, that seems to be working! and I don't have the itch to replace it, either. We also have a Peloton bike and Tread, FWIW. And I, too, struggle mightily with productivity systems, and the Peloton classes don't solve entirely for motivation.. it can help make the difference at the margins, though.
  - Swizec 6y ago
    She uses the Peloton app on her tablet, yep. Says she loves it and it works great. And it still became a clothes rack within a few months. So far the only thing she's tried that consistently worked for her was a personal trainer. Something about being accountable to an actual in-person human really did the trick for her. Unfortunately quarantine put an end to that. It also gets real expensive real fast.
    - rconti 6y ago
      Agreed. I've done the personal trainer thing for a few years, and it's REALLY expensive. I learned a ton of things from it, and I'm glad I did it, but, to me, it's not sustainable long-term from a cost standpoint.
rconti 6y ago
I've never been good at gyms, but we have both Pelotons and use them all the time. We've also got a Precor elliptical in our (tiny) garage gym. For a few years I also went to a personal trainer a couple times a week, which is another planet of expense compared to a $2k bike and $40/mo. But, overall, I find the connected type fitness classes (and in this I include Zwift though I've never owned a setup myself) to be far BETTER than going to a gym which just has massive, massive barriers to entry for most people.
HeyLaughingBoy 6y ago
I had a salesman in the exercise equipment section of the store tell me that the best place to buy equipment was from under someone's bed. I took his advice and got what I needed for pennies on the dollar by looking in the local classifieds.

azinman2 6y ago

Fitness is on the rise generally (or at least pre-covid), and the trend is away from gyms. It’s Barry‘s bootcamp, yoga classes, Pilates, spin, etc etc. In a covid world, the pelotons and mirrors make a lot of sense. The question is will it stick afterwards.

perardi 6y ago
I will grant you there was a diversification in "wellness" fitness options. But I think my point still stands with yoga et al: you were still going somewhere else. I'm just quite biased people will end up working out at home. (I actually suspect the boutique fitness stuff may come out of this better than big ol' boxes full of treadmills like Planet Fitness. It's easier to social distance and sanitized with defined class times and appointment. One of the big chain gyms here is doing just that; you set a time to go for the gym, and then you get out so they can sanitize the equipment. Which is nice, but labor-intensive. I can't imagine $15/month warehouses full of weights maintaining that. https://www.goodlifefitness.com/goodlife-standard https://www.goodlifefitness.com/goodlife-standard)
- matwood 6y ago
  Possibly. The problem with the boutique fitness places is they make all the at home options look cheap.

tempestn 6y ago

I've been regularly working out at home for over 10 years now. For me being able to work out at home is considerably more effective than having to go someplace else; that added friction of driving somewhere, getting changed, etc., just makes it far more of a hassle compared to it being part of the start of my day at home. I do think it's important to have a decent space in your house to work out, which would certainly be an impediment to some. But in the past that space has been our living room (hardwood floors, fortunately) with the coffee table pushed up against the wall. Having a video workout program to follow can also be very helpful for motivation and continuity. What I can't understand is what value this Mirror adds. I regularly do BeachBody workout programs, which I watch on our TV. Used to be by buying their DVD sets; now it's through their streaming app. But that's cheaper than the mirror program, with more content, and doesn't require buying a $1500 mirror up front. Everyone already has a TV, and I don't believe the portrait orientation is even really a benefit. So yeah, I'm bullish on home workouts, but bearish on Mirror.

perardi 6y ago
"So yeah, I'm bullish on home workouts, but bearish on Mirror." Yeah, if my psychology was set up for it, I'd be doing those hill sprints in the park near me in addition to perfunctory pushups. But in either case: none of it involves spending $1500 on some magic mirror.
Darkphibre 6y ago
I think a big difference is the fact that it's, you know, a mirror: You can see your movements and the instructor's at the same time, and adjust your form to mirror theirs. For me, going to the gym (technically Bar Method) was always done with an instructor, so that I could get their feedback on proper form and adjustments to my routine.
- jdhzzz 6y ago
  Exactly. Still misses the feedback portion, but in a world without access to gyms this is a step closer to being in the room in an instructor led class. It's not worth it to me but definitely a value-add over videos.

ludamad 6y ago

Sunken cost psychology works in your favour when you commute to the gym, you want to justify that time. You're less likely to not doing anything once there. That, and everyone and everything there is gym

perardi 6y ago
I love putting it in terms of sunk cost psychology. That's a great way to put it.

simonebrunozzi 6y ago

I disagree with you on being skeptical - I think (my humble 0.02) that you are in the minority. People still buy these gadgets despite for the past 40 years or so they mostly kept collecting dust at home. But I agree on something else: I would also short these companies, for other reasons. I think there's no moat large enough to defend them in the future. Also, you say you're "highly highly productive". Hey man, please share more about it. I believe you, and I want to know more!

fastball 6y ago
My reading of the GC was not that he doesn't think anyone will buy it, but that if they do they won't keep up their sub, which is kinda the whole point.
- perardi 6y ago
  Yup. That's the short of it: they'll buy the bike, realize they're not using the bike, and not re-up their subscription.
perardi 6y ago
Ah, if we're dropping bona fides—my fitness, pre-quarantine fattening: https://www.instagram.com/p/B6B6ceUB8he/ https://www.instagram.com/p/B6B6ceUB8he/ And as for productivity, I'll just link to this, and see if anyone has snarky comments on how rapidly this project has moved or not: https://www.wolframalpha.com https://www.wolframalpha.com

staycoolboy 6y ago

Bowflex is still alive and well, they haven't gone anywhere. There is a HUGE market for this stuff, even gym subscriptions, that never, ever get used. I was friends with a Crossfit licensee and he said only 50% of people that paid actually showed up every week, and only ~85% showed up every month. The other 15%? They just kept reauthorizing charges, showing up every now and then when he called them, and then forgot again. It's a cash cow. The only downside to equipment is losing revenue to resale on Craigslist or Nextdoor.

delfinom 6y ago
>There is a HUGE market for this stuff, even gym subscriptions, that never, ever get used. I was friends with a Crossfit licensee and he said only 50% of people that paid actually showed up every week, and only ~85% showed up every month. The other 15%? They just kept reauthorizing charges, showing up every now and then when he called them, and then forgot again. Basically how all gyms work, human laziness and human financial incompetence, though theres also a sprinkle of shady stall tactics by gyms for cancellation.

est31 6y ago

There is a great cgp grey video about this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snAhsXyO3Ck https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snAhsXyO3Ck TLDW: create areas with boundaries inside your home and make sure you follow these boundaries.

matwood 6y ago

I was a hardcore gym user pre-pandemic. My wife and I also did various gym classes together for ‘dates’. Because of lack of time, I was already building a home weight gym, and the pandemic forced me finish. My wife wasn’t a work at home type of person though. Then we got a Peloton. She rides it nearly every day, and has a group of people she rides with including IRL friends and people she met online. The difference of exercise equipment today vs. yesterday is the group and community aspect. I was skeptical, but I have added Peloton rides to my normal weight workouts. The instructors are good, and the connected aspect of the metrics (I’m numbers driven) pulls me along for more and harder workouts.

guiambros 6y ago

To offer a different perspective: I used to hate exercising. I'm the type of person who paid a gym just because I loved the idea of being in shape, but had no interest in putting in the effort. With the obvious realization that I wasn't getting younger, I decided to get a Peloton last year, and immediately got hooked. I started riding 3-4 times/week, but since the lockdown started I created the habit of riding every single day; I'm now on my 16-week streak. But the surprising part is that I'm actually enjoying it. So I'm the opposite spectrum - I'm long on these companies, and strong believe they'll continue to do well post-Covid. The model is brilliant: fixed cost, variable income, and control of the entire ecosystem -- hw + sw + content + ownership of the customer experience. Unless they screw up on execution, they have a very profitable path ahead. Just sad that Mirror was acquired by Lululemon, instead of Peloton; it would be a killer combination in terms of content + hardware. But it wouldn't surprise me if they come up with something similar in the future.

edoceo 6y ago
I think, and my experience was, after 16-weeks of daily excercise you'll enjoy it - expensive bike or not. My first attempt (20+ yr ago);was just running 30 minutes a day, 5d/w - and it was great, then work and life got in the way. Eventually I got back in to daily...at first hard but over the "hump" and now, I need at least 30 minutes I'm glad you found enjoyment in health, but one doesn't need the expensive hardware to get there
- guiambros 6y ago
  Oh, couldn't agree more. The bike was what clicked for me (plus the personal analytics, friends being there, etc), but it's not because of the bike that I started exercising. I also know folks who indeed use it as a very expensive towel hanger, so not dismissing OP's argument. My meta point is that from a business perspective, I'm very optimistic with the future of at-home exercise - Peloton, Mirror, p.volve, be.come, etc.

Swizec 6y ago

My girlfriend wanted a Peloton. I said okay but first we're getting a $300 version from Amazon. If you use it every day for 2 months and it isn't sufficient, we can get a Peloton. We now have a $300 clothes rack. Luckily it wasn't $2000. If you're the kind of person who doesn't work out regularly, a gadget won't make you work out regularly. It will at first. When the novelty wears off, it won't. Just like the impact every TODO app and productivity system has on me. You must first become the kind of person who works out. Then buy the gadgets.

rconti 6y ago
Was she using the Peloton classes on a tablet you already had? I know a fair number of people that have gone the cheap-Amazon-bike-plus-tablet route and it seems to work well. That would be a fair comparison; it seems a bit sillier to compare entirely self-directed bike workouts, though. Sometimes a big spend CAN drive bigger use. I pulled the trigger on a(n expensive to me) carbon fiber road bike about 12 years ago; ultimately I justified it to myself that I'd feel guilty if I spent so much and DIDN'T ride it. So far, that seems to be working! and I don't have the itch to replace it, either. We also have a Peloton bike and Tread, FWIW. And I, too, struggle mightily with productivity systems, and the Peloton classes don't solve entirely for motivation.. it can help make the difference at the margins, though.
- Swizec 6y ago
  She uses the Peloton app on her tablet, yep. Says she loves it and it works great. And it still became a clothes rack within a few months. So far the only thing she's tried that consistently worked for her was a personal trainer. Something about being accountable to an actual in-person human really did the trick for her. Unfortunately quarantine put an end to that. It also gets real expensive real fast.
  - rconti 6y ago
    Agreed. I've done the personal trainer thing for a few years, and it's REALLY expensive. I learned a ton of things from it, and I'm glad I did it, but, to me, it's not sustainable long-term from a cost standpoint.

rconti 6y ago

I've never been good at gyms, but we have both Pelotons and use them all the time. We've also got a Precor elliptical in our (tiny) garage gym. For a few years I also went to a personal trainer a couple times a week, which is another planet of expense compared to a $2k bike and $40/mo. But, overall, I find the connected type fitness classes (and in this I include Zwift though I've never owned a setup myself) to be far BETTER than going to a gym which just has massive, massive barriers to entry for most people.

HeyLaughingBoy 6y ago

I had a salesman in the exercise equipment section of the store tell me that the best place to buy equipment was from under someone's bed. I took his advice and got what I needed for pennies on the dollar by looking in the local classifieds.