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Early adopters are more likely to increase their usage as they're transitioning more of their fitness time to Peloton. The mainstream cohorts who rely on Peloto

by orky56 6y ago

Early adopters are more likely to increase their usage as they're transitioning more of their fitness time to Peloton. The mainstream cohorts who rely on Peloton to increase their fitness may not have as much Peloton usage.

troydavis 6y ago
It's totally possible, but so is any other change in behavior that we want to speculate about :-) For example, the pandemic may make people more likely to cancel a $39/month payment… or it may make people more reliant on Peloton because other exercise methods are now riskier. We're all guessing at this point.
matwood 6y ago
Maybe. I was a Peloton skeptic, and more and more friends got them over the last year or two. Every friend who got one a) loves it and b) is still using it - often daily. I was fine going doing cardio pre-weight workout until the gyms closed. I finally gave in to the wife and got a Peloton and I understand the obsession now. It’s the closest thing to a spin studio experience in your home. The instructors are top notch, and the bike is a nice spin bike. Now that I’ve finished my home weight gym, I will likely never start up my gym membership again.
RC_ITR 6y ago
Offset by account sharing (which who really cares when your ARPU is $40/month). And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY offset by the sunk-cost fallacy - you can't event get ride metrics off the thing without a subscription. Most people will guilt-pay the $40, just so their $2K bike works...
- troydavis 6y ago
  > And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. I don't know what Peloton displays to end users, but FWIW, the definition they use for prospective investors is much more stringent. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519230923/d738839ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519... page 66: > We define a Workout as a Connected Fitness Subscriber either completing at least 50% of an instructor-led or scenic ride or run or ten or more minutes of “Just Ride” or “Just Run” mode.

by orky56 6y ago

troydavis 6y ago

It's totally possible, but so is any other change in behavior that we want to speculate about :-) For example, the pandemic may make people more likely to cancel a $39/month payment… or it may make people more reliant on Peloton because other exercise methods are now riskier. We're all guessing at this point.

matwood 6y ago

Maybe. I was a Peloton skeptic, and more and more friends got them over the last year or two. Every friend who got one a) loves it and b) is still using it - often daily. I was fine going doing cardio pre-weight workout until the gyms closed. I finally gave in to the wife and got a Peloton and I understand the obsession now. It’s the closest thing to a spin studio experience in your home. The instructors are top notch, and the bike is a nice spin bike. Now that I’ve finished my home weight gym, I will likely never start up my gym membership again.

RC_ITR 6y ago

Offset by account sharing (which who really cares when your ARPU is $40/month). And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY offset by the sunk-cost fallacy - you can't event get ride metrics off the thing without a subscription. Most people will guilt-pay the $40, just so their $2K bike works...

troydavis 6y ago
> And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. I don't know what Peloton displays to end users, but FWIW, the definition they use for prospective investors is much more stringent. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519230923/d738839ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519... page 66: > We define a Workout as a Connected Fitness Subscriber either completing at least 50% of an instructor-led or scenic ride or run or ten or more minutes of “Just Ride” or “Just Run” mode.