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> I would be really interested to see how many people who bought Peloton bikes in 2014 still ride them 2-3X a week now. Peloton published the stats of their pu

> I would be really interested to see how many people who bought Peloton bikes in 2014 still ride them 2-3X a week now. Peloton published the stats of their purchase cohorts in their S-1 (and probably in subsequent reports, but I haven't read them). At least among those who maintain a $39/month Peloton subscription ("Connected Fitness Subscribers"), the frequency of use increases over time. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519230923/d738839ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519...: > We have consistently seen workouts increase over time. On average, our Connected Fitness Subscribers completed 7.5, 8.4, and 11.5 workouts per month in fiscal 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. Usage drives value and loyalty, which is evidenced by our exceptional weighted-average 12-month Connected Fitness Subscriber retention rate of 95% across all fiscal year cohorts since fiscal 2016. … > Average Monthly Workouts per Connected Fitness Subscriber are higher for our most recent cohorts and engagement for each cohort has been consistent or improved over time. S-1 page 63 has more. Also, at least as of the S-1, churn (called "Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn") from those cohorts was also very low - roughly 0.5-0.9% per quarter or ~3%/year. That means Connected Fitness Subscribers includes the vast majority of those who purchased a bike. In 2019 when the S-1 was filed, I put a few more details here: https://twitter.com/troyd/status/1167582830425075712 https://twitter.com/troyd/status/1167582830425075712

orky56 6y ago
Early adopters are more likely to increase their usage as they're transitioning more of their fitness time to Peloton. The mainstream cohorts who rely on Peloton to increase their fitness may not have as much Peloton usage.
- troydavis 6y ago
  It's totally possible, but so is any other change in behavior that we want to speculate about :-) For example, the pandemic may make people more likely to cancel a $39/month payment… or it may make people more reliant on Peloton because other exercise methods are now riskier. We're all guessing at this point.
- matwood 6y ago
  Maybe. I was a Peloton skeptic, and more and more friends got them over the last year or two. Every friend who got one a) loves it and b) is still using it - often daily. I was fine going doing cardio pre-weight workout until the gyms closed. I finally gave in to the wife and got a Peloton and I understand the obsession now. It’s the closest thing to a spin studio experience in your home. The instructors are top notch, and the bike is a nice spin bike. Now that I’ve finished my home weight gym, I will likely never start up my gym membership again.
- RC_ITR 6y ago
  Offset by account sharing (which who really cares when your ARPU is $40/month). And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY offset by the sunk-cost fallacy - you can't event get ride metrics off the thing without a subscription. Most people will guilt-pay the $40, just so their $2K bike works...
  - troydavis 6y ago
    > And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. I don't know what Peloton displays to end users, but FWIW, the definition they use for prospective investors is much more stringent. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519230923/d738839ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519... page 66: > We define a Workout as a Connected Fitness Subscriber either completing at least 50% of an instructor-led or scenic ride or run or ten or more minutes of “Just Ride” or “Just Run” mode.

orky56 6y ago

Early adopters are more likely to increase their usage as they're transitioning more of their fitness time to Peloton. The mainstream cohorts who rely on Peloton to increase their fitness may not have as much Peloton usage.

troydavis 6y ago
It's totally possible, but so is any other change in behavior that we want to speculate about :-) For example, the pandemic may make people more likely to cancel a $39/month payment… or it may make people more reliant on Peloton because other exercise methods are now riskier. We're all guessing at this point.
matwood 6y ago
Maybe. I was a Peloton skeptic, and more and more friends got them over the last year or two. Every friend who got one a) loves it and b) is still using it - often daily. I was fine going doing cardio pre-weight workout until the gyms closed. I finally gave in to the wife and got a Peloton and I understand the obsession now. It’s the closest thing to a spin studio experience in your home. The instructors are top notch, and the bike is a nice spin bike. Now that I’ve finished my home weight gym, I will likely never start up my gym membership again.
RC_ITR 6y ago
Offset by account sharing (which who really cares when your ARPU is $40/month). And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY offset by the sunk-cost fallacy - you can't event get ride metrics off the thing without a subscription. Most people will guilt-pay the $40, just so their $2K bike works...
- troydavis 6y ago
  > And offset by the fact that trying a class & aborting after 45 seconds is a 'class'. I don't know what Peloton displays to end users, but FWIW, the definition they use for prospective investors is much more stringent. From https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519230923/d738839ds1.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639825/000119312519... page 66: > We define a Workout as a Connected Fitness Subscriber either completing at least 50% of an instructor-led or scenic ride or run or ten or more minutes of “Just Ride” or “Just Run” mode.