5 ms·

At a fundamental level, yes. By degree of magnitude not even in the same galaxy. If you take a 200 million mile road trip you might contribute to one death, v

At a fundamental level, yes. By degree of magnitude not even in the same galaxy. If you take a 200 million mile road trip you might contribute to one death, vs. going to a party and risk contracting and spreading a pandemic that has has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.

gridlockd 6y ago
Remember, the game plan that virologists came up with for COVID acknowledged that most people will get it eventually. The point of the lockdowns was not to eliminate spread, which is impossible, but to not overwhelm the system.
- pas 6y ago
  The plan is/was also to understand it, find effective protocols for managing it, etc. (And we also have pretty good chances of coming up with a vaccine in about 1 year.) It's not "just the same amount of death, but slower, so the crematoriums don't get overwhelmed".
  - jessaustin 6y ago
    ...pretty good chances of coming up with a vaccine in about 1 year. This is just wishful thinking. We've never had effective vaccines for this sort of virus. (The yearly flu vaccine is like 30% effective.) Sure lots of research groups are working on vaccines, but many of them are academics who have no particular duty to work on research likely to have an immediate payoff. The researchers who do have such a duty, i.e. those who work for private drug firms, are mostly developing treatments like the antiviral remdesivir. Effective treatments of various sorts are closer than any vaccine, for COVID-19. IMHO, the most likely eventual winner will be a scaled-up version of the convalescent plasma therapy, which unlike the current version will be able to produce effective antibodies without drawing blood from humans.
    - pas 6y ago
      At least one phase 3 clinical trial is about to start this month. I too am surprised that the one year estimate is not complete nonsense, but it seems it's not. (Of course the mRNA vector might simply not pan out, but there are still others currently undergoing phase 2.) Efficacy is always a question, sure, yet it seems the spike protein is stable (conserved across mutations). If the mRNA stuff works well then it'll likely work for the flu too. (It be easy to pack one shot full if flu strains.)
      - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
        Phase 3 is normally where most medicines fail. Covid (any vaccine based treatment really) is even more difficult as you need to wait for six months to assess transmission.
        gridlockd 6y ago
        > Covid (any vaccine based treatment really) is even more difficult as you need to wait for six months to assess transmission. Technically, you don't. There are volunteers ready to get infected with SARS-CoV2 and I wouldn't put my money on "ethics" standing in the way in this case.
        disgruntledphd2 6y ago
        That is true, but you still need a relatively long time to make sure there aren't any nasty side-effects.
      - jessaustin 6y ago
        My understanding is that the spike protein already mutated in the human population, some time in January or early February. Researchers who started work on earlier samples had to start over because the later spike protein version has such superior fitness that it has largely replaced the earlier version in the wild. So, stability over e.g. a month doesn't guarantee stability over longer terms.
- VectorLock 6y ago
  "Everyone gets COVID" is not an unavoidable eventuality. The spread of the virus can be attenuated enough so that it a decreasing amount of people, and eventually a vaccine can be developed.
- TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
  And also to provide time for treatments to appear, with the eventual prospect of a vaccine. And also to avoid panic and shortages of essentials caused by mass avoidable deaths and work absenteeism, both of which would have been the inevitable and predictable outcome of attempting to carry on as normal. IMO the argument is already over. In fact there shouldn't have been an argument at all. There was never a rational case for trying to avoid lockdown, or failing to test/trace, or setting up other basic mitigation measures - either on humanitarian or on economic grounds.
  - gridlockd 6y ago
    > In fact there shouldn't have been an argument at all. This is an awful way of thinking. > There was never a rational case for trying to avoid lockdown This is untrue. Many virologists and epidemiologists made rational cases against lockdowns. Sweden followed the strategy of Anders Tegnell, who is a renowned epidemiologist. The case for or against lockdowns was ultimately decided by the perception of public opinion, with politicians trading off the risk of "having done too little" versus "having done too much". The New York times is spinning a narrative that Sweden, because of no lockdown whatsoever, had a really bad outcome. It's just not true. The amount of deaths controlled for population is lower than in Spain, France or the UK, all of which had a total lockdown. Their current fatality cases are near zero. Their economic contraction is half that of the rest of the EU.
    - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
      First of all no, not lower than France's, but it was much lower for a while. Secondly, their economic contraction might be somewhat less, yet the death toll compared to Norway much higher, which did not suffer much worse economically. The question boils down was it worth for a modest economical benefit allow 5000 people to die or not. Some people think it is okay, most do not.
      - gridlockd 6y ago
        > Secondly, their economic contraction might be somewhat less, yet the death toll compared to Norway much higher, which did not suffer much worse economically. This is cherry-picking. You can always tell if somebody is making a bad argument when they pick Norway - a sparsely populated oil-rich welfare state - for a comparison. > The question boils down was it worth for a modest economical benefit allow 5000 people to die or not. Some people think it is okay, most do not. No, that's an oversimplification. You are assuming that the lockdowns could've prevented these deaths, yet we have other countries that had strict lockdowns and that had similar death rates. You also have countries like Germany and Netherlands with modest lockdowns and lower death rates. There are a lot of factors at play here and the numbers are all over the place, but there is no evidence that lockdowns actually do better in the long run. Part of the problem is that most countries did do some form of lockdown, so Sweden is one of few in the control group.
lmm 6y ago
Driving kills 38,000 people/year in the US. Covid-19 has killed around 140,000 people. It's the same order of magnitude.

gridlockd 6y ago

Remember, the game plan that virologists came up with for COVID acknowledged that most people will get it eventually. The point of the lockdowns was not to eliminate spread, which is impossible, but to not overwhelm the system.

pas 6y ago
The plan is/was also to understand it, find effective protocols for managing it, etc. (And we also have pretty good chances of coming up with a vaccine in about 1 year.) It's not "just the same amount of death, but slower, so the crematoriums don't get overwhelmed".
- jessaustin 6y ago
  ...pretty good chances of coming up with a vaccine in about 1 year. This is just wishful thinking. We've never had effective vaccines for this sort of virus. (The yearly flu vaccine is like 30% effective.) Sure lots of research groups are working on vaccines, but many of them are academics who have no particular duty to work on research likely to have an immediate payoff. The researchers who do have such a duty, i.e. those who work for private drug firms, are mostly developing treatments like the antiviral remdesivir. Effective treatments of various sorts are closer than any vaccine, for COVID-19. IMHO, the most likely eventual winner will be a scaled-up version of the convalescent plasma therapy, which unlike the current version will be able to produce effective antibodies without drawing blood from humans.
  - pas 6y ago
    At least one phase 3 clinical trial is about to start this month. I too am surprised that the one year estimate is not complete nonsense, but it seems it's not. (Of course the mRNA vector might simply not pan out, but there are still others currently undergoing phase 2.) Efficacy is always a question, sure, yet it seems the spike protein is stable (conserved across mutations). If the mRNA stuff works well then it'll likely work for the flu too. (It be easy to pack one shot full if flu strains.)
    - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
      Phase 3 is normally where most medicines fail. Covid (any vaccine based treatment really) is even more difficult as you need to wait for six months to assess transmission.
      - gridlockd 6y ago
        > Covid (any vaccine based treatment really) is even more difficult as you need to wait for six months to assess transmission. Technically, you don't. There are volunteers ready to get infected with SARS-CoV2 and I wouldn't put my money on "ethics" standing in the way in this case.
        disgruntledphd2 6y ago
        That is true, but you still need a relatively long time to make sure there aren't any nasty side-effects.
    - jessaustin 6y ago
      My understanding is that the spike protein already mutated in the human population, some time in January or early February. Researchers who started work on earlier samples had to start over because the later spike protein version has such superior fitness that it has largely replaced the earlier version in the wild. So, stability over e.g. a month doesn't guarantee stability over longer terms.
VectorLock 6y ago
"Everyone gets COVID" is not an unavoidable eventuality. The spread of the virus can be attenuated enough so that it a decreasing amount of people, and eventually a vaccine can be developed.
TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
And also to provide time for treatments to appear, with the eventual prospect of a vaccine. And also to avoid panic and shortages of essentials caused by mass avoidable deaths and work absenteeism, both of which would have been the inevitable and predictable outcome of attempting to carry on as normal. IMO the argument is already over. In fact there shouldn't have been an argument at all. There was never a rational case for trying to avoid lockdown, or failing to test/trace, or setting up other basic mitigation measures - either on humanitarian or on economic grounds.
- gridlockd 6y ago
  > In fact there shouldn't have been an argument at all. This is an awful way of thinking. > There was never a rational case for trying to avoid lockdown This is untrue. Many virologists and epidemiologists made rational cases against lockdowns. Sweden followed the strategy of Anders Tegnell, who is a renowned epidemiologist. The case for or against lockdowns was ultimately decided by the perception of public opinion, with politicians trading off the risk of "having done too little" versus "having done too much". The New York times is spinning a narrative that Sweden, because of no lockdown whatsoever, had a really bad outcome. It's just not true. The amount of deaths controlled for population is lower than in Spain, France or the UK, all of which had a total lockdown. Their current fatality cases are near zero. Their economic contraction is half that of the rest of the EU.
  - SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
    First of all no, not lower than France's, but it was much lower for a while. Secondly, their economic contraction might be somewhat less, yet the death toll compared to Norway much higher, which did not suffer much worse economically. The question boils down was it worth for a modest economical benefit allow 5000 people to die or not. Some people think it is okay, most do not.
    - gridlockd 6y ago
      > Secondly, their economic contraction might be somewhat less, yet the death toll compared to Norway much higher, which did not suffer much worse economically. This is cherry-picking. You can always tell if somebody is making a bad argument when they pick Norway - a sparsely populated oil-rich welfare state - for a comparison. > The question boils down was it worth for a modest economical benefit allow 5000 people to die or not. Some people think it is okay, most do not. No, that's an oversimplification. You are assuming that the lockdowns could've prevented these deaths, yet we have other countries that had strict lockdowns and that had similar death rates. You also have countries like Germany and Netherlands with modest lockdowns and lower death rates. There are a lot of factors at play here and the numbers are all over the place, but there is no evidence that lockdowns actually do better in the long run. Part of the problem is that most countries did do some form of lockdown, so Sweden is one of few in the control group.

lmm 6y ago

Driving kills 38,000 people/year in the US. Covid-19 has killed around 140,000 people. It's the same order of magnitude.