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Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to re

by ptx 6y ago

Taiwan has 7 COVID-19 deaths[1]. It seems far-fetched to suppose that they would be somehow covering up the 12000 additional deaths that would be required to reach Sweden's per-capita numbers. South Korea would have had to neglect to report 99% of COVID-19 deaths. [1] https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
bjourne 6y ago
True. And Sweden stands out when you compare it to other Nordic countries. My point is only that you can't draw too many conclusions from just looking at leaderboards at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and similar sites.
deleted 6y ago
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latchkey 6y ago
Vietnam is zero deaths and <400 total (most of those were imported), with no new infections in 80+ days. At first, I thought it was the govt covering something up, but after so many months, along with closely monitoring things, I trust their numbers. It is literally a source of national pride for them to have done so well, it would be very hard for them to hide things. Quarantine, masks, isolation, cleaning, testing, contact tracing. ALL WORKED.
- tux1968 6y ago
  What if next year a more virulent strand of Covid comes along that kills almost everyone in the world who didn't get exposed to Covid-19. Will you still consider their measures as ALL WORKING? We have no idea how the future is going to unfold. Everyone is faking it while demanding that everyone do as they say.
  - TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
    What if next year aliens arrive and eat us all? There's no plausible argument from counterfactuals here. But let's pretend anyway - do you not think that even if a more virulent strain of Covid did arrive, country with proven measures in place has a better chance of dealing with the problem than a country whose current response is a chaotic shambles?
    - tux1968 6y ago
      What i'm saying is there is a problem with monocultures. They are more susceptible to being wiped out in a single stroke. I'd say that following a scientific approach, we might want to consider not advocating for everyone to take the exact same course of action. Also, that we have to be careful to not judge success or failure too soon, that assessments can change after a bit more time has passed.
      - latchkey 6y ago
        If the course of action has the effect of saving lives, what is wrong with that? The measure of success is all past and current. If Vietnam loses control over covid, then we can definitely blame them for that. Why? Because they effectively controlled it in the first place. If they continue their direction, they will be one of the only countries on the planet, not totally infected. Pretty amazing really. If they start experimenting and doing things differently, at least they've setup the protocols for managing things correctly. Here in the US, we go through these bullshit 'phases' where we go from phase 2 to phase 3 and then back to phase 2. Well, anyone with half a brain could have figured out that wasn't going to work. At least Vietnam is taking this seriously. They shut their borders entirely... we (the US), can't even do that.
  - latchkey 6y ago
    I cannot predict the future, I can only consider the past and think about the present, with an eye to the future. Faking what? Demanding what?
  - yibg 6y ago
- Steko 6y ago
  Vietnam came out right at the start with a significant fine for not wearing a mask in public.
  - virtualwhys 6y ago
    Really? I've been in Da Nang, Vietnam for over 5 months now, and the fine for not wearing a mask only came during the short quarantine period (@3 weeks) at the start of April. When I arrived at the end of January (during the Chinese New Year) there were thousands of Chinese tourists mobbing the convenience stores buying up all the masks they could find. At the time I wasn't really aware of what was happening, but clearly they were a step ahead of the game, likely based on past history with SARS and news coming from friends and family back home. It's pretty amazing how low the case count has been in Vietnam; some locals say, "don't believe the government", but you'd expect any outbreaks/deaths related to COVID-19 to have gotten out by now if the government were in fact trying to hide something.
  - latchkey 6y ago
    "significant" is relative. "Up to $13" https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/vietnam-imposes-hefty-fines-going-maskless https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/...
    - refurb 6y ago
      That is significant when the average monthly pay is ~$200.
refurb 6y ago
I would be careful comparing Covid deaths across countries. A good example is the child mortality statistics - the US counts babies born alive, but then die, but other countries just count them as stillbirths if the death happens with X period of time. Not saying Taiwan is hiding tens of thousands of deaths, but you have to assume some wiggle room in the numbers.
- kolinko 6y ago
  That’s why we can look at excess deaths.
takeda 6y ago
I think SARS was what motivated these countries to be prepared and it paid off. On the other side of the world it was complete lack of leadership and even dismantling of the preparation efforts that were taken earlier.

by ptx 6y ago

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

bjourne 6y ago

True. And Sweden stands out when you compare it to other Nordic countries. My point is only that you can't draw too many conclusions from just looking at leaderboards at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and similar sites.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

latchkey 6y ago

Vietnam is zero deaths and <400 total (most of those were imported), with no new infections in 80+ days. At first, I thought it was the govt covering something up, but after so many months, along with closely monitoring things, I trust their numbers. It is literally a source of national pride for them to have done so well, it would be very hard for them to hide things. Quarantine, masks, isolation, cleaning, testing, contact tracing. ALL WORKED.

tux1968 6y ago
What if next year a more virulent strand of Covid comes along that kills almost everyone in the world who didn't get exposed to Covid-19. Will you still consider their measures as ALL WORKING? We have no idea how the future is going to unfold. Everyone is faking it while demanding that everyone do as they say.
- TheOtherHobbes 6y ago
  What if next year aliens arrive and eat us all? There's no plausible argument from counterfactuals here. But let's pretend anyway - do you not think that even if a more virulent strain of Covid did arrive, country with proven measures in place has a better chance of dealing with the problem than a country whose current response is a chaotic shambles?
  - tux1968 6y ago
    What i'm saying is there is a problem with monocultures. They are more susceptible to being wiped out in a single stroke. I'd say that following a scientific approach, we might want to consider not advocating for everyone to take the exact same course of action. Also, that we have to be careful to not judge success or failure too soon, that assessments can change after a bit more time has passed.
    - latchkey 6y ago
      If the course of action has the effect of saving lives, what is wrong with that? The measure of success is all past and current. If Vietnam loses control over covid, then we can definitely blame them for that. Why? Because they effectively controlled it in the first place. If they continue their direction, they will be one of the only countries on the planet, not totally infected. Pretty amazing really. If they start experimenting and doing things differently, at least they've setup the protocols for managing things correctly. Here in the US, we go through these bullshit 'phases' where we go from phase 2 to phase 3 and then back to phase 2. Well, anyone with half a brain could have figured out that wasn't going to work. At least Vietnam is taking this seriously. They shut their borders entirely... we (the US), can't even do that.
- latchkey 6y ago
  I cannot predict the future, I can only consider the past and think about the present, with an eye to the future. Faking what? Demanding what?
- yibg 6y ago
Steko 6y ago
Vietnam came out right at the start with a significant fine for not wearing a mask in public.
- virtualwhys 6y ago
  Really? I've been in Da Nang, Vietnam for over 5 months now, and the fine for not wearing a mask only came during the short quarantine period (@3 weeks) at the start of April. When I arrived at the end of January (during the Chinese New Year) there were thousands of Chinese tourists mobbing the convenience stores buying up all the masks they could find. At the time I wasn't really aware of what was happening, but clearly they were a step ahead of the game, likely based on past history with SARS and news coming from friends and family back home. It's pretty amazing how low the case count has been in Vietnam; some locals say, "don't believe the government", but you'd expect any outbreaks/deaths related to COVID-19 to have gotten out by now if the government were in fact trying to hide something.
- latchkey 6y ago
  "significant" is relative. "Up to $13" https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/vietnam-imposes-hefty-fines-going-maskless https://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/...
  - refurb 6y ago
    That is significant when the average monthly pay is ~$200.

refurb 6y ago

I would be careful comparing Covid deaths across countries. A good example is the child mortality statistics - the US counts babies born alive, but then die, but other countries just count them as stillbirths if the death happens with X period of time. Not saying Taiwan is hiding tens of thousands of deaths, but you have to assume some wiggle room in the numbers.

kolinko 6y ago
That’s why we can look at excess deaths.

takeda 6y ago

I think SARS was what motivated these countries to be prepared and it paid off. On the other side of the world it was complete lack of leadership and even dismantling of the preparation efforts that were taken earlier.