5 ms·

It is definitely many times worse than the flu, but probably not 10 and definitely not 100 times.

text70 6y ago
It's ten times worse. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/?pub=63511 https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...
addled 6y ago
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower now than if you check back later. Still if you look back to April, flu deaths each week were in the hundreds, while covid deaths 9-15k. Saying it is 10x or more worse, doesn't seem unreasonable to me. What really grabbed me is that the total US deaths in April from all causes was +40% compared to prior 3 year average.
- drummer 6y ago
  Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.
  - saalweachter 6y ago
    During the peak of crisis in NYC, the death rate was ~6 times normal. If those extra deaths weren't from COVID-19, what were they from?
    - drummer 6y ago
      You won't like the answer: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0 https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0
      - berdario 6y ago
        For people that prefer not to waste time on that, like I did... It's a covid19 conspiracy from antivaxxers The first debunking of it I found: https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/ https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/
        hyanaroo 6y ago
        lol..i dont know how i missed your comment,,i wasted my time on those idiots hehe
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      see this too ,the debunk of the nurse in the previous youtube link ;)
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      also this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      looks like that nurse has a fb page of anti vaxx and lots of beaseless claims,wasted my time dammit :(
  - watwut 6y ago
    How do you think flu deaths are counted? Because that numbers shows also estimated death people - people who were never even tested on flu. Like, percentage of pneumonia deaths. And they contain also people also having other health issues and not just flu.
    - makomk 6y ago
      Flu deaths are counted as the number of people who die because of the flu - that is, they represent people who wouldn't have died if they didn't catch the flu. This is of course an estimate, and there are some pretty fundamental reasons why it has to be such as the fact that flu causes heart attacks and strokes but also just happens to be present in patients who have one for unrelated reasons, but it should be a pretty robust one because flu is an old and well researched disease and we have a vey good idea of how it behaves at a population level.
      - kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
        The CDC includes pneumonia deaths during flu season because not all death certificates record influenza as the cause.
  - erichocean 6y ago
    > people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid Generic "flu" deaths are also counted the same way. Why do you think Covid deaths should be counted differently?
  - addled 6y ago
    That's exactly why I like the link I posted. It tries to provide context on how many people die with covid, flu, pneumonia, or some combination of the 3. Then more importantly, it looks at the overall death rate. Because even if you completely ignore the covid count, the fact that there are so many more people dying than normal should grab people's attention.
- vonmoltke 6y ago
  FYI, you double-pasted the link. The correct one is https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
  - addled 6y ago
    Ah, sorry. Fixed above now as well. Thanks!
drummer 6y ago
Nope: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ Some quotes: “Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2.” “Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.” “Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses.”
- berdario 6y ago
  You're omitting one important quote: "less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing" That paper is worthless.
  - drummer 6y ago
    If you look at the responses regarding Norway and Germany above, this paper foretold the future. The authors deserve awards. Excellent science.
- disgruntledphd2 6y ago
  Another quote (from the abstract): "It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing. " As of the Mar 19th 2020 issue of the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. Even without reading the paper, I can tell you that if this analysis were to be repeated, we would get different results, given that we are now (four months later) at 540,000 (confirmed, which is definitely an underestimate) deaths, rather than 4000.
- alexilliamson 6y ago
  This is not the first time you've been called out on HN for quoting that outdated paper. The last time was 70 days ago (it was outdated 2+ months ago).

It's ten times worse. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/?pub=63511 https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...

addled 6y ago

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower now than if you check back later. Still if you look back to April, flu deaths each week were in the hundreds, while covid deaths 9-15k. Saying it is 10x or more worse, doesn't seem unreasonable to me. What really grabbed me is that the total US deaths in April from all causes was +40% compared to prior 3 year average.

drummer 6y ago
Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.
- saalweachter 6y ago
  During the peak of crisis in NYC, the death rate was ~6 times normal. If those extra deaths weren't from COVID-19, what were they from?
  - drummer 6y ago
    You won't like the answer: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0 https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0
    - berdario 6y ago
      For people that prefer not to waste time on that, like I did... It's a covid19 conspiracy from antivaxxers The first debunking of it I found: https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/ https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/
      - hyanaroo 6y ago
        lol..i dont know how i missed your comment,,i wasted my time on those idiots hehe
  - hyanaroo 6y ago
    see this too ,the debunk of the nurse in the previous youtube link ;)
  - hyanaroo 6y ago
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8
  - hyanaroo 6y ago
    also this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI
  - hyanaroo 6y ago
    looks like that nurse has a fb page of anti vaxx and lots of beaseless claims,wasted my time dammit :(
- watwut 6y ago
  How do you think flu deaths are counted? Because that numbers shows also estimated death people - people who were never even tested on flu. Like, percentage of pneumonia deaths. And they contain also people also having other health issues and not just flu.
  - makomk 6y ago
    Flu deaths are counted as the number of people who die because of the flu - that is, they represent people who wouldn't have died if they didn't catch the flu. This is of course an estimate, and there are some pretty fundamental reasons why it has to be such as the fact that flu causes heart attacks and strokes but also just happens to be present in patients who have one for unrelated reasons, but it should be a pretty robust one because flu is an old and well researched disease and we have a vey good idea of how it behaves at a population level.
    - kevin_thibedeau 6y ago
      The CDC includes pneumonia deaths during flu season because not all death certificates record influenza as the cause.
- erichocean 6y ago
  > people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid Generic "flu" deaths are also counted the same way. Why do you think Covid deaths should be counted differently?
- addled 6y ago
  That's exactly why I like the link I posted. It tries to provide context on how many people die with covid, flu, pneumonia, or some combination of the 3. Then more importantly, it looks at the overall death rate. Because even if you completely ignore the covid count, the fact that there are so many more people dying than normal should grab people's attention.
vonmoltke 6y ago
FYI, you double-pasted the link. The correct one is https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
- addled 6y ago
  Ah, sorry. Fixed above now as well. Thanks!

drummer 6y ago

Nope: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ Some quotes: “Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2.” “Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.” “Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses.”

berdario 6y ago
You're omitting one important quote: "less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing" That paper is worthless.
- drummer 6y ago
  If you look at the responses regarding Norway and Germany above, this paper foretold the future. The authors deserve awards. Excellent science.
disgruntledphd2 6y ago
Another quote (from the abstract): "It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing. " As of the Mar 19th 2020 issue of the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. Even without reading the paper, I can tell you that if this analysis were to be repeated, we would get different results, given that we are now (four months later) at 540,000 (confirmed, which is definitely an underestimate) deaths, rather than 4000.
alexilliamson 6y ago
This is not the first time you've been called out on HN for quoting that outdated paper. The last time was 70 days ago (it was outdated 2+ months ago).