5 ms·

Sweden did the right thing. Covid-19 is not worse than the flu. Norway recently also admitted the lockdown there was not neccesary according to the data they ha

Sweden did the right thing. Covid-19 is not worse than the flu. Norway recently also admitted the lockdown there was not neccesary according to the data they have now. In March they thought differently.

martindbp 6y ago
It is definitely many times worse than the flu, but probably not 10 and definitely not 100 times.
- text70 6y ago
  It's ten times worse. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/?pub=63511 https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...
- addled 6y ago
  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower now than if you check back later. Still if you look back to April, flu deaths each week were in the hundreds, while covid deaths 9-15k. Saying it is 10x or more worse, doesn't seem unreasonable to me. What really grabbed me is that the total US deaths in April from all causes was +40% compared to prior 3 year average.
  - drummer 6y ago
    Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.
    - saalweachter 6y ago
      During the peak of crisis in NYC, the death rate was ~6 times normal. If those extra deaths weren't from COVID-19, what were they from?
      - drummer 6y ago
        You won't like the answer: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0 https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0
        berdario 6y ago
        For people that prefer not to waste time on that, like I did... It's a covid19 conspiracy from antivaxxers The first debunking of it I found: https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/ https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/
        hyanaroo 6y ago
        lol..i dont know how i missed your comment,,i wasted my time on those idiots hehe
      - hyanaroo 6y ago
        see this too ,the debunk of the nurse in the previous youtube link ;)
      - hyanaroo 6y ago
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8
      - hyanaroo 6y ago
        also this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI
      - hyanaroo 6y ago
        looks like that nurse has a fb page of anti vaxx and lots of beaseless claims,wasted my time dammit :(
  - vonmoltke 6y ago
    FYI, you double-pasted the link. The correct one is https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
    - addled 6y ago
      Ah, sorry. Fixed above now as well. Thanks!
- drummer 6y ago
  Nope: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ Some quotes: “Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2.” “Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.” “Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses.”
  - berdario 6y ago
    You're omitting one important quote: "less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing" That paper is worthless.
    - drummer 6y ago
      If you look at the responses regarding Norway and Germany above, this paper foretold the future. The authors deserve awards. Excellent science.
  - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
    Another quote (from the abstract): "It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing. " As of the Mar 19th 2020 issue of the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. Even without reading the paper, I can tell you that if this analysis were to be repeated, we would get different results, given that we are now (four months later) at 540,000 (confirmed, which is definitely an underestimate) deaths, rather than 4000.
  - alexilliamson 6y ago
    This is not the first time you've been called out on HN for quoting that outdated paper. The last time was 70 days ago (it was outdated 2+ months ago).
drummer 6y ago
Norway: ‘Lockdown was not necessary to tame Covid-19’ According to Camilla Stoltenberg, the Director-General of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (Folkehelseinstituttet), similar results would have been achieved in her country without a lockdown. She bases that statement on a study by her institution. The study collected data on confirmed cases of coronavirus registered in Norway, the number of hospital admissions, the reproduction rate, etc. At the beginning of March it was feared that one person infected with the virus would infect four others. Only strict lockdown rules could bring that figure down. This hypothesis came from the Imperial College in London and gave forecasts for a number of European countries, including Norway. Virus never spread as fast as was feared In their report, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health now comes to a completely different conclusion: the virus never spread as quickly as was feared and was already on its way back when the lockdown was announced. ‘Our conclusion now is that we could have achieved a similar effect without lockdown. By staying open and taking a series of precautions to prevent the spread. It’s important that we admit that. Because should the number of infections rise again in winter or should there be a second wave, we have to be honest in our analysis whether such a lockdown has proven to be effective’. According to Stoltenberg, who is herself a doctor and the sister of former Norwegian Prime Minister and current NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, such draconian measures should only be announced in the future if there is an academic basis for them. And that was missing now, according to Stoltenberg. https://businessam.be/noorwegen-lockdown-was-niet-nodig-om-covid-19-te-temmen/ https://businessam.be/noorwegen-lockdown-was-niet-nodig-om-c...
- berdario 6y ago
  "Virus never spread as fast as was feared" Except in the US, in Italy, etc. where it's spreading or it has been spreading exactly as fast as feared.
  - drummer 6y ago
    This is what was happening in Italy: "The figures are questionable Angelo Borrelli, the head of Civil Protection, who announces the latest figures every day at 6 p.m., said Saturday night that the 793 new deaths have been caused “by and with” the coronavirus. “We count all the dead, we make no distinction between with and by the coronavirus.” However, one wonders whether these daily figures reflect the situation correctly. The dead are said to have almost all had one or more other diseases, which leaves a question mark as to exactly how deadly the coronavirus is. At the same time, it has become clear that a large number of people who die at home (which is often a retirement home) do not undergo a coronavirus test." https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/03/22/als-italie-het-voorland-is-wat-staat-nederland-te-wachten-a3994528 https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/03/22/als-italie-het-voorland... "On Friday, April 24, 2020, Vittorio Sgarbi, a member of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, denounced what he claims are false coronavirus death statistics. Sgarbi feels that fake statistics are being propagated by the government and the media to terrorize the citizens of Italy and establish a dictatorship. The member of the Forza Italia party slammed the closure of 60% of Italian businesses for 25,000 Chinese-Coronavirus deaths from the floor of the legislature. “It’s not true,” he said. “Don’t use the deaths for rhetoric and terrorism.” According to the National Institute of Health, 96.3% did not die of coronavirus, but of other pathologies stated Sgarbi – which means that only 925 have died from the virus and 24,075 have died of other things claimed Sgarbi, “….the virus was little more than an influenza. Don’t lie! Tell the truth!”" https://rairfoundation.com/italian-leader-slams-false-coronavirus-numbers-25000-did-not-die-its-a-way-to-impose-a-dictatorship-watch/ https://rairfoundation.com/italian-leader-slams-false-corona...
drummer 6y ago
Let's not forget Germany: "A report on the coronavirus by the German Ministry of the Interior was leaked on May 9th 2020 by officer Stephan Kohn to the magazine Tichys Einblick, one of the most popular alternative media in Germany. The report, on which a dozen or so doctors and professors from various universities in Germany have worked, states that “the state has failed in the coronavirus crisis in an almost grotesque way.” In a press release, the scientists concerned stated that “the observable effects and consequences of COVID-19 do not provide sufficient evidence that it is more than a false alarm in terms of health effects on society as a whole. The new virus has probably never posed a risk to the population in excess of normal levels […]. The people dying from corona are mainly those who are statistically dying this year because they have reached the end of their lives and their weakened bodies are no longer able to withstand random daily exposure (including to the approximately 150 viruses currently in circulation). The danger of COVID-19 has been overestimated. (No more than 250,000 deaths from COVID-19 worldwide within a quarter of a year, compared to 1.5 million deaths during the flu wave in 2017/18). Of course, the risk is no greater than that of many other viruses. In all likelihood, we are dealing with a global false alarm that has gone unnoticed for a long time.” They also didn’t have anything positive to say about the ‘protective’ measures of the German criminal government. “The collateral damage [because of the measures] is now enormous and far greater than any observable benefit. […] Just a comparison of previous deaths due to the virus with deaths due to the protective measures prescribed by the State […] supports this finding. Much of this damage will continue to manifest itself even in the near and distant future. This can no longer be prevented but can only be minimized. […] The shortcomings and failures in crisis management have consequently led to the dissemination of unsubstantiated information, and thus disinformation, to the public. […] The State turned out to be one of the biggest fake-news producers in the coronacrisis.”" https://www.achgut.com/artikel/das_corona_papier_wissenschaftler_korrigieren_seehofer https://www.achgut.com/artikel/das_corona_papier_wissenschaf... https://www.ichbinanderermeinung.de/Dokument93.pdf https://www.ichbinanderermeinung.de/Dokument93.pdf
- sjg007 6y ago
  In this case then the flu would’ve killed em..
- detaro 6y ago

martindbp 6y ago

It is definitely many times worse than the flu, but probably not 10 and definitely not 100 times.

text70 6y ago
It's ten times worse. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/i/influenza-in-sweden/?pub=63511 https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publ...
addled 6y ago
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm For US data, I like how this table compares deaths from covid, flu, and pneumonia against the total deaths for all causes each week. I especially like that they show the ratio of current deaths vs the average of the 3 years prior for the same week. The downside is how the data is slowly updated as each state trickles in data, so the most recent 4-8 weeks look lower now than if you check back later. Still if you look back to April, flu deaths each week were in the hundreds, while covid deaths 9-15k. Saying it is 10x or more worse, doesn't seem unreasonable to me. What really grabbed me is that the total US deaths in April from all causes was +40% compared to prior 3 year average.
- drummer 6y ago
  Unfortunately covid deaths are highly unreliable as there is lots of evidence worldwide that people dying with covid are also counted with those dying of covid. Also lots of cases of dead people being counted while not being tested or positively tested for covid.
  - saalweachter 6y ago
    During the peak of crisis in NYC, the death rate was ~6 times normal. If those extra deaths weren't from COVID-19, what were they from?
    - drummer 6y ago
      You won't like the answer: https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0 https://youtube.com/watch?v=kIngGuof9E0
      - berdario 6y ago
        For people that prefer not to waste time on that, like I did... It's a covid19 conspiracy from antivaxxers The first debunking of it I found: https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/ https://zdoggmd.com/undercover-nurse/
        hyanaroo 6y ago
        lol..i dont know how i missed your comment,,i wasted my time on those idiots hehe
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      see this too ,the debunk of the nurse in the previous youtube link ;)
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPqfY2F2KR8
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      also this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4gGxRlzoKI
    - hyanaroo 6y ago
      looks like that nurse has a fb page of anti vaxx and lots of beaseless claims,wasted my time dammit :(
- vonmoltke 6y ago
  FYI, you double-pasted the link. The correct one is https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
  - addled 6y ago
    Ah, sorry. Fixed above now as well. Thanks!
drummer 6y ago
Nope: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/ Some quotes: “Under these conditions, there does not seem to be a significant difference between the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries and that of common coronaviruses (χ2 test, P=0.11). Of course, the major flaw in this study is that the percentage of deaths attributable to the virus is not determined, but this is the case for all studies reporting respiratory virus infections, including SARS-CoV-2.” “Under these conditions, and all other things being equal, SARS-CoV-2 infection cannot be described as being statistically more severe than infection with other coronaviruses in common circulation.” “Finally, in OECD countries, SARS-CoV-2 does not seem to be deadlier than other circulating viruses.”
- berdario 6y ago
  You're omitting one important quote: "less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing" That paper is worthless.
  - drummer 6y ago
    If you look at the responses regarding Norway and Germany above, this paper foretold the future. The authors deserve awards. Excellent science.
- disgruntledphd2 6y ago
  Another quote (from the abstract): "It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing. " As of the Mar 19th 2020 issue of the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. Even without reading the paper, I can tell you that if this analysis were to be repeated, we would get different results, given that we are now (four months later) at 540,000 (confirmed, which is definitely an underestimate) deaths, rather than 4000.
- alexilliamson 6y ago
  This is not the first time you've been called out on HN for quoting that outdated paper. The last time was 70 days ago (it was outdated 2+ months ago).

drummer 6y ago

Norway: ‘Lockdown was not necessary to tame Covid-19’ According to Camilla Stoltenberg, the Director-General of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (Folkehelseinstituttet), similar results would have been achieved in her country without a lockdown. She bases that statement on a study by her institution. The study collected data on confirmed cases of coronavirus registered in Norway, the number of hospital admissions, the reproduction rate, etc. At the beginning of March it was feared that one person infected with the virus would infect four others. Only strict lockdown rules could bring that figure down. This hypothesis came from the Imperial College in London and gave forecasts for a number of European countries, including Norway. Virus never spread as fast as was feared In their report, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health now comes to a completely different conclusion: the virus never spread as quickly as was feared and was already on its way back when the lockdown was announced. ‘Our conclusion now is that we could have achieved a similar effect without lockdown. By staying open and taking a series of precautions to prevent the spread. It’s important that we admit that. Because should the number of infections rise again in winter or should there be a second wave, we have to be honest in our analysis whether such a lockdown has proven to be effective’. According to Stoltenberg, who is herself a doctor and the sister of former Norwegian Prime Minister and current NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, such draconian measures should only be announced in the future if there is an academic basis for them. And that was missing now, according to Stoltenberg. https://businessam.be/noorwegen-lockdown-was-niet-nodig-om-covid-19-te-temmen/ https://businessam.be/noorwegen-lockdown-was-niet-nodig-om-c...

berdario 6y ago
"Virus never spread as fast as was feared" Except in the US, in Italy, etc. where it's spreading or it has been spreading exactly as fast as feared.
- drummer 6y ago
  This is what was happening in Italy: "The figures are questionable Angelo Borrelli, the head of Civil Protection, who announces the latest figures every day at 6 p.m., said Saturday night that the 793 new deaths have been caused “by and with” the coronavirus. “We count all the dead, we make no distinction between with and by the coronavirus.” However, one wonders whether these daily figures reflect the situation correctly. The dead are said to have almost all had one or more other diseases, which leaves a question mark as to exactly how deadly the coronavirus is. At the same time, it has become clear that a large number of people who die at home (which is often a retirement home) do not undergo a coronavirus test." https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/03/22/als-italie-het-voorland-is-wat-staat-nederland-te-wachten-a3994528 https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/03/22/als-italie-het-voorland... "On Friday, April 24, 2020, Vittorio Sgarbi, a member of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, denounced what he claims are false coronavirus death statistics. Sgarbi feels that fake statistics are being propagated by the government and the media to terrorize the citizens of Italy and establish a dictatorship. The member of the Forza Italia party slammed the closure of 60% of Italian businesses for 25,000 Chinese-Coronavirus deaths from the floor of the legislature. “It’s not true,” he said. “Don’t use the deaths for rhetoric and terrorism.” According to the National Institute of Health, 96.3% did not die of coronavirus, but of other pathologies stated Sgarbi – which means that only 925 have died from the virus and 24,075 have died of other things claimed Sgarbi, “….the virus was little more than an influenza. Don’t lie! Tell the truth!”" https://rairfoundation.com/italian-leader-slams-false-coronavirus-numbers-25000-did-not-die-its-a-way-to-impose-a-dictatorship-watch/ https://rairfoundation.com/italian-leader-slams-false-corona...

drummer 6y ago

Let's not forget Germany: "A report on the coronavirus by the German Ministry of the Interior was leaked on May 9th 2020 by officer Stephan Kohn to the magazine Tichys Einblick, one of the most popular alternative media in Germany. The report, on which a dozen or so doctors and professors from various universities in Germany have worked, states that “the state has failed in the coronavirus crisis in an almost grotesque way.” In a press release, the scientists concerned stated that “the observable effects and consequences of COVID-19 do not provide sufficient evidence that it is more than a false alarm in terms of health effects on society as a whole. The new virus has probably never posed a risk to the population in excess of normal levels […]. The people dying from corona are mainly those who are statistically dying this year because they have reached the end of their lives and their weakened bodies are no longer able to withstand random daily exposure (including to the approximately 150 viruses currently in circulation). The danger of COVID-19 has been overestimated. (No more than 250,000 deaths from COVID-19 worldwide within a quarter of a year, compared to 1.5 million deaths during the flu wave in 2017/18). Of course, the risk is no greater than that of many other viruses. In all likelihood, we are dealing with a global false alarm that has gone unnoticed for a long time.” They also didn’t have anything positive to say about the ‘protective’ measures of the German criminal government. “The collateral damage [because of the measures] is now enormous and far greater than any observable benefit. […] Just a comparison of previous deaths due to the virus with deaths due to the protective measures prescribed by the State […] supports this finding. Much of this damage will continue to manifest itself even in the near and distant future. This can no longer be prevented but can only be minimized. […] The shortcomings and failures in crisis management have consequently led to the dissemination of unsubstantiated information, and thus disinformation, to the public. […] The State turned out to be one of the biggest fake-news producers in the coronacrisis.”" https://www.achgut.com/artikel/das_corona_papier_wissenschaftler_korrigieren_seehofer https://www.achgut.com/artikel/das_corona_papier_wissenschaf... https://www.ichbinanderermeinung.de/Dokument93.pdf https://www.ichbinanderermeinung.de/Dokument93.pdf

sjg007 6y ago
In this case then the flu would’ve killed em..
detaro 6y ago