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> I am yet to find a convincing example of a concerted effort at increasing or suppressing birth rates by a centralised authority. China suppressed its birth

> I am yet to find a convincing example of a concerted effort at increasing or suppressing birth rates by a centralised authority. China suppressed its birth rate with its one child policy.

H8crilA 6y ago
No it didn't, have you ever looked at the charts? They had the "Chinese Boomers" which were naturally followed by "Chinese Millennials". And then in 2015 the policy was abandoned but the birth rate has not bulged at all.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 6y ago
  Here is an article comparing China with India population growth. http://m.statisticstimes.com/demographics/china-vs-india-population.php http://m.statisticstimes.com/demographics/china-vs-india-pop... You can see that China bends the curve compared to India.
- whycombagator 6y ago
  > No it didn't, have you ever looked at the charts? What charts?
  - H8crilA 6y ago
    Fertility/birth rates. A reminder - one child policy was introduced in 1979 and repelled in 2015, neither of those dates had any visible effect: Fertility rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINCHN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINCHN Birth rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNCBRTINCHN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNCBRTINCHN And it is not like the Chinese govt didn't try, they were serious about it. It's just that birth rates are mysterious. People will have kids when they want to, and will stop having kids when they want to, and they will listen to nobody. No authority.
TedDoesntTalk 6y ago
The policy existed but, after talking with some Chinese friends about this very topic, they said the system was corrupt. Anyone who want to get around the system just had to bribe a local official, and there were zero consequences. Take this as anecdotal, of course.
- bilbo0s 6y ago
  It wasn't even a bribe, It was worse than that. It was literally, "You can only have one child unless you pay for each extra child you want." I mean, getting around the policy, was actually written into the policy. Which is kind of insane if the purpose was to control birth rates.
  - booleandilemma 6y ago
    But wouldn't even require paying for extra children discourage people from having children?
    - astronautjones 6y ago
      aren't you doing that by having children anywhere?
  - orwin 6y ago
    Wait, it's not that simple. Depending on where you were working and living, the policy was different. National-level, f you worked for the government (military, healthcare, PCC) you weren't allowed to have more than one child without loosing your job (if you were grunt-level) or paying and having your career path stilled (if you were CO-level). For other workers, it was more or less a "state-level" implementation with governors deciding how to enforce the rule. In most places, farmers had the right to have two children and could ask to have one more. City workers only one and had to pay different amount depending on the city and the governor for the second. Some governors were really, really hard on enforcement (forced abortion...) while other were more lax and made people pay acceptable amount for the second child. Still, even without hard enforcement, the illegal child have no paper, cannot join legal school and isn't present on the family register (and can't work/live anywhere legally). This is one of the 3 internal problem the Chinese government will have with the generation.
Leary 6y ago
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12063/production/_104772837_china_birthrate-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12063/production... China's birthrate did decline with the one child policy (1979). But it declined way more in the decade prior to the introduction of the one child policy. "晚、稀、少" : “late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” was a little known policy introduced in 1970 that encouraged late marriage and fewer births, and which had way bigger effects than the compulsory one child policy.

> I am yet to find a convincing example of a concerted effort at increasing or suppressing birth rates by a centralised authority. China suppressed its birth rate with its one child policy.

H8crilA 6y ago

No it didn't, have you ever looked at the charts? They had the "Chinese Boomers" which were naturally followed by "Chinese Millennials". And then in 2015 the policy was abandoned but the birth rate has not bulged at all.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 6y ago
Here is an article comparing China with India population growth. http://m.statisticstimes.com/demographics/china-vs-india-population.php http://m.statisticstimes.com/demographics/china-vs-india-pop... You can see that China bends the curve compared to India.
whycombagator 6y ago
> No it didn't, have you ever looked at the charts? What charts?
- H8crilA 6y ago
  Fertility/birth rates. A reminder - one child policy was introduced in 1979 and repelled in 2015, neither of those dates had any visible effect: Fertility rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINCHN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNTFRTINCHN Birth rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNCBRTINCHN https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPDYNCBRTINCHN And it is not like the Chinese govt didn't try, they were serious about it. It's just that birth rates are mysterious. People will have kids when they want to, and will stop having kids when they want to, and they will listen to nobody. No authority.

TedDoesntTalk 6y ago

The policy existed but, after talking with some Chinese friends about this very topic, they said the system was corrupt. Anyone who want to get around the system just had to bribe a local official, and there were zero consequences. Take this as anecdotal, of course.

bilbo0s 6y ago
It wasn't even a bribe, It was worse than that. It was literally, "You can only have one child unless you pay for each extra child you want." I mean, getting around the policy, was actually written into the policy. Which is kind of insane if the purpose was to control birth rates.
- booleandilemma 6y ago
  But wouldn't even require paying for extra children discourage people from having children?
  - astronautjones 6y ago
    aren't you doing that by having children anywhere?
- orwin 6y ago
  Wait, it's not that simple. Depending on where you were working and living, the policy was different. National-level, f you worked for the government (military, healthcare, PCC) you weren't allowed to have more than one child without loosing your job (if you were grunt-level) or paying and having your career path stilled (if you were CO-level). For other workers, it was more or less a "state-level" implementation with governors deciding how to enforce the rule. In most places, farmers had the right to have two children and could ask to have one more. City workers only one and had to pay different amount depending on the city and the governor for the second. Some governors were really, really hard on enforcement (forced abortion...) while other were more lax and made people pay acceptable amount for the second child. Still, even without hard enforcement, the illegal child have no paper, cannot join legal school and isn't present on the family register (and can't work/live anywhere legally). This is one of the 3 internal problem the Chinese government will have with the generation.

Leary 6y ago

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12063/production/_104772837_china_birthrate-nc.png https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/12063/production... China's birthrate did decline with the one child policy (1979). But it declined way more in the decade prior to the introduction of the one child policy. "晚、稀、少" : “late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” was a little known policy introduced in 1970 that encouraged late marriage and fewer births, and which had way bigger effects than the compulsory one child policy.