4 ms·
How do you explain the "sudden drop" in cases in new York [1] after reaching some 25% infection rate? Do you think herd immunity (ish) can be reached at a lower
by ramraj07 6y ago
How do you explain the "sudden drop" in cases in new York [1] after reaching some 25% infection rate? Do you think herd immunity (ish) can be reached at a lower saturation rate possibly?
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/nyregion/hospitals-coronavirus-cases-decline.html?smid=tw-share https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/nyregion/hospitals-corona...
- belltaco 6y agoThat seems to fit into the theory that quarantine lockdown measures are most effective after 1.5 months.
- guscost 6y agoIt also fits (perfectly) an alternate theory that the population exhibits a wide variation in susceptibility, which lowers the herd immunity threshold. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v...
- nradov 6y agoWhat is the basis for that hypothesis?
- belltaco 6y agoThat it takes that long for this cycle to die out --> (infection, exhibiting symptoms, infecting close contacts(who start this same cycle again), becoming unable to infect others)