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San Francisco apartment rent prices are dropping fast

• stephencoyner 6y ago
  Has anyone in SF successfully Renegotiated rent based on this? If so, would love to hear about it. I’ve been living in the same apartment for 3 years with no rent changes and feel like it’s time for a drop
  • jonathankau 6y ago
    We recently renegotiated our rent for a 2br apartment in SF about 7% down after having begun our lease in March. Used a 2 prong tactic of mentioning some frustrations that we've had thus far as well as offering to extend our lease. We didn't have much leverage, but offering something in exchange for the rent reduction was probably what convinced them.
  • mindtricks 6y ago
    Trying to do this now. They aren't budging on the rent, but are pitching a reduction to removal of parking and pet fees. I don't know if this is because they fall out of rent control regulations. Was aiming for a 10% total reduction, but they've effectively hit a 4% reduction in my case.
  • mlex 6y ago
    I re-negotiated my 2B2B rent down from $4700 to $4200, and honestly could've gone lower (landlord accepted our first offer). The most important thing for me in this process was doing the research on comparable properties in the city and spreadsheeting it out (sqft, rent, location, and amenities). I presented that spreadsheet, showing there were obviously places I could move to that were much cheaper with similar to better benefits. Ultimately all negotiation is about showing that you're willing to walk away for a better alternative, and it's pretty clear there were good alternatives given the current SF housing market.
• tomashertus 6y ago
  The first apartment I moved to in San Francisco in 2013 started on $2300/month and the price jumped to $3300/month when I left 5 years later. Yesterday, the exact same apartment after complete reconstruction was offered for $2500/month plus two free months. That's pretty incredible.
• winslow 6y ago
  Anecdotal evidence, I was able to negotiate $200 off my $3,300 monthly rent in Los Angeles for a 2 bed / 2 bath 1,000 sqft. I think I could have negotiated $300 off but just went with the $200 off for 7 months. We haven't signed the new lease and are potentially rethinking of signing since cases are starting to spike again and surrounding areas are looking really attractive for similar accommodations at ~$2,500 monthly rent. We're hoping to buy a house within the next year.
• jb775 6y ago
  I own rental property in suburbs outside Philadelphia, my tenant's lease was up end of May and demand was off the charts compared to previous years. Only anecdotal, but had multiple people mention they just wanted to get out of the inner-city, but still be close. Suburbs (around here at least) are a lot more millennial-friendly than people give them credit for. I think as millennials age and get over the "must be in walking distance of a social scene" mindset, this trend will accelerate. I also think the inner-city riots/looting/etc will stimulate this across the US.
  • jeffbee 6y ago
    Well of course millennials can't afford the inner city, being the poorest generation in modern history. Suburbs are usually cheaper (if you forget to net out transportation costs) so that's where millennials will go.
    • jb775 6y ago
      I agree with you, but I don't think it will be entirely about personal finances. Inner city living is a lifestyle that has high-highs (easy work commute if you work in the city, more vibrant social life, nearby public transit) and low-lows (higher crime/violence, unhealthy air quality, terrible public schools). As the highs start to matter less (social life not as active, remote working more acceptable, etc), and the lows start to matter more (they have kids, etc), I think the natural progression is that they move out of the city.
    • bitcurious 6y ago
      Philly is super affordable, so your comment isn’t really on point.
• davidw 6y ago
  I am not sure we have concrete data, but I'm really concerned about what this will do where I live: Bend, Oregon, which is more of a destination for the types of people getting out of the bay area. A gradual influx of people is good, as over time it leads to more of a local talent pool, people starting companies, and that sort of thing. But a rapid influx might be the last straw for a lot of people who are not working remotely in highly paid jobs. Nurses, firefighters, teachers, police, and so on. In the past, I think our prices moved more or less in sync with other west coast markets, broadly, but if there's a real exodus from cities, that might not hold true this cycle.
• egypturnash 6y ago
  Oh awesome. Maybe someday my friends who are SF natives will be able to move back home.
• nosequel 6y ago
  > According to Zumper, the median rental price for a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco fell 11.8% year over year, from $3,720 to $3,280, beating May’s 9% drop. The survey also reports a 1% uptick in national rents, with the average median apartment in the U.S. renting for $1,229 in June. With even the most hardcore "you must work IN the office" companies switching to remote for at least another 6 months, and many probably staying that way, I don't see how more people aren't flocking out of SF. 3x the rent and a downtown slowly becoming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamsterdam https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamsterdam there doesn't seem much keeping people there. The old argument of, "but that's where the jobs are" really isn't the case anymore.
• some_furry 6y ago
  Good. This needs to happen. The rent prices were way too damn high for a long time (which is the #1 reason I refuse to live in a big tech city).
  • warent 6y ago
    Rent prices are dropping because more people are becoming homeless or dying. Not good.
    • gjs278 6y ago
      that is good too. they should have moved somewhere cheaper. lesson learned.
    • luxurytent 6y ago
      This is a wild claim! Do you have anything to back it?
      • throwaway_USD 6y ago
        Rent is falling across the country...Do you believe unemployment skyrocketing to somewhere between 20-40 million people across the Country preceding the rent price crash is coincidence? Do you have an alternative hypothesis why rent across the Country is dropping? If its not a drop in demand...that would suggest the entire Country increased its housing supply at the same time.
        • dgfitz 6y ago
          Perhaps a good percentage of millennials moved back in with parents? Perhaps because lots of people are buying instead of continuing to rent because interest rates are so low? Massive amounts of people dying seems like quite the claim indeed.
        • dredmorbius 6y ago
          The survey also reports a 1% uptick in national rents Noted in TFA's 2nd paragraph.
• m_a_g 6y ago
  I hope this trend continues, but I feel like after the pandemic ends, prices will bounce back up.
  • some_furry 6y ago
    That depends on two things: 1. If companies will extend their remote-friendly policies beyond the pandemic. 2. If the rising swell of unemployed Americans will pursue a career in tech, and enough of them are willing to relocate to San Francisco (as the trope goes). I don't have a good prediction for the first point (some companies will likely dig their heels in on remote work because "we tried it" even though "remote work" is way different than "working during a pandemic"), but we'll at least see some of the second.
    • koheripbal 6y ago
      1. They won't. 2. Those who were made unemployed were not the same people renting expensive SF apartments.
      • some_furry 6y ago
        2. People who are made unemployed by the pandemic who transition into a tech career become recruiter fodder, and will eventually join the candidate pool. That's what I'm talking about, not the sum of all unemployed people.
        • tmpz22 6y ago
          Maybe, but I think there is already a glut of bootcamp-style developers who represent the majority of career-changing opportunities doing front-end development or mobile development after a 3-12 month training. I don't there there are as many entry-level tech opportunities in the bay area as people think their is. The roles that are really hungry seem to always be senior or cross-discipline devops that requires many years across many types of domains.
        • bradlys 6y ago
• luxurytent 6y ago
  In two weeks I move out of my $2,800/month, 3 bedroom apartment in Boston, MA. We're moving to a lower cost-of-living city. Our upstairs neighbours, who share a 3 bedroom apartment are also all out. One moved to Denver (job opportunity), the other two are finding a more affordable alternative outside the city. These are young professionals who enjoy a patio and drinks on a Friday. Our landlord originally listed our unit back at $2,800/month but I see it's now at $2,500/month. My anecdotal evidence of the shift :)
  • kyleblarson 6y ago
    On the flip side, I live in a very rural valley in North Central Washington State that is a prime location for climbing, skiing, mountain biking, etc. We are about 4 hours from Seattle in the summer when the pass is open. Housing prices have spiked in the last 6 months with many going pending in a day with cash offers. It was never like that before. The good builders are already booked through 2022 for new construction.
    • driverdan 6y ago
      I've been watching a number of different markets and it's crazy. In Flagstaff and Chattanooga, for example, many houses get offers within hours of being listed.
      • jseliger 6y ago
        Millenials are demographically numerous and are also now bunched in the "make a family or don't" slice of time. Unless someone makes $300,000 or more a year, as almost no one does, that's very difficult in California, New York, Boston, and increasingly even places like Seattle. COVID may be accelerating preexisting trends and pressures.
    • jseliger 6y ago
      There are companies like Factory OS: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/business/economy/modular-housing.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/business/economy/modular-... or Build Atoms: https://www.buildatmos.com/timetobuild https://www.buildatmos.com/timetobuild that are supposed make rolling out new construction much faster and easier, though I don't know what their practical impact is right now.
• AnotherGoodName 6y ago
  If you are trying to rent right now the going rate seems to be 2 months free for a 12month contract. So almost 20% off. I think the reason for the 2 months free is to avoid various rent controls. If they actually gave 20% off they couldn't put the price back up 20% in the future as easily.
  • amiga_500 6y ago
    Exactly. It's not 20% off. Make them drop the monthly rent by 20%. That is 20% off.
    • icelancer 6y ago
      Drop rent control and they might.
      • neilparikh 6y ago
        Even without rent control, the "2 months free" offer earns them more revenue, assuming you stay over an year, so I doubt they would just give you the full discount.
        • hammock 6y ago
          Or if you stay less than a year! Since you usually have to pay back concessions ON TOP of any early termination penalty, if you want to break your lease.
      • smoothdeveloper 6y ago
        Let the place remain tenantless few more months and they will.
  • jeffbee 6y ago
    At least in my jurisdiction the free months are averaged in to the rent control so in the second year the rent will actually decrease.
  • 6y ago
• adaisadais 6y ago
  I think SF rents reached their zenith shortly before the pandemic. Walking around the city you see a lot of commercial real estate signs and for lease signs. Tons of companies and individuals are leaving for good. If the trend of WFH (forever) continues the rent prices in SF won’t go back up for a long time.
  • fragmede 6y ago
    Retail has been dying since about when Amazon got popular, and the exceptions (eg Apple stores) are the ones that prove the rule.
    • adaisadais 6y ago
      I was mainly referring to restaurants. But yes, if a retailer has no niche then amazon wins.
  • adfm 6y ago
    What made SF interesting was pushed out long ago. What's left is an insular monoculture not unlike Cavendish bananas. Unless you've got deep roots there, seriously consider the alternative.
    • pound 6y ago
      What would you suggest as a few examples to consider? (let's assume there is no covid in place so everything is open as usual) Thanks!
      • momokoko 6y ago
        Everywhere else has less monoculture than SF. So just anywhere else in the US. Don’t get me wrong, SF is cool and an easy place to live with the weather and the parks and density level. But the people are as bland and similar as you can get.
      • adfm 6y ago
        San Diego and Austin are two examples that come to mind.
• amiga_500 6y ago
  What happened? Did they change the zoning laws? I think Hacker News always cites that as the main problem, right?
  • jedberg 6y ago
    There are two sides to the housing equation. Supply and demand. Demand has been high for quite some time, so the only way to alleviate it was to increase supply (aka change the zoning). But now demand is down. Lower demand will probably be temporary until things open up again. May people live in SF for the cultural aspects (bars, clubs, theaters, restaurants). Once those open people will want to live there again.
    • kmonsen 6y ago
      Just to be clear, currently demand falls is addressing both global warming and housing prices. But demand is a terrible way to fix things because it means a lot of human suffering at the same time. So yes, taking away everyones money is one way of solving expensive rents, but not the ideal way.
      • ghaff 6y ago
        There's taking away people's money but there's also just giving people more flexibility in where they live. If everyone still wants to live in a particular location regardless of any work requirements, that's one thing. But if people are primarily there because they have to be that's another.
        • kmonsen 6y ago
          Totally agree, and it is a good thing if people who doesn't want to be there doesn't need to anymore. But in general demand slumps are hard to fix and last longer.
          • ghaff 6y ago
            I think there are a lot of (especially) younger people who are looking at this through the lens of increased urbanization being inevitable. But the reality is that most US cities were still losing population into the nineties. When I graduated from grad school in the late 80s, basically none of my cohort lived in Boston/Cambridge--including those whose jobs were in the city. (Pretty much all of the tech industry jobs were in the suburbs/exurbs "Route 128") So, yeah, if there's a mass exodus, even if somewhat transitory, the restaurants and bars and shops will tend to be gone and it won't be easy to refresh. And the people who moved out will be somewhat older and won't be inclined to return and the younger generation won't really get the appeal.
• jedberg 6y ago
  I think some of this is temporary. My friend just left NYC. They loved it there, but since everything is closed, there was no reason to stay. The bars, clubs, and restaurants were the main reasons they were there. They figured they might as well save money and move back home with their parents until everything opens again. Then they'll probably go back. I suspect things will pick up in SF as the bars and clubs and restaurants open again.
  • eli_gottlieb 6y ago
    Were people really living in the city for the recreation? I always thought most people either lived in the urban core for work, or because they're from the urban core and used to it. But then again, I suppose I'm biased by living in Boston, which... kinda hates fun and wants to make sure you go home early.
    • worstestes 6y ago
      Definitely! I moved to Chicago specifically to work remotely and enjoy the restaurants, art, parks, etc. It may be a generational difference but many of my peers have done the same.
    • WrtCdEvrydy 6y ago
      NYC is open 24 hours a day. Miami closes at around 2AM (generally). It's night and day.
      • kradroy 6y ago
        Miami (FL) doesn't close. When I lived there not long ago, there was a period where I was between jobs where I came home after sunrise every day of the week. If you're trying to stay out past 2am in Miami and not able to, you're not trying... at all. Bars/clubs usually close at 5am, but I believe are only required to close for 1 hour a day, so there are afterhours spots. Source: Native Miamian.
      • driverdan 6y ago
        > NYC is open 24 hours a day. The Vegas strip is open 24h. NYC isn't.
• cephaslr 6y ago
  “300 landlords who own more than 10,000 apartments” Wow, that’s allot of concentrated wealth. Anyone have some insight on these fine folk? If each landlord owns 100 apartments renting for $4k each(average) that’s $400k a month gross. That’s allot of potential venture capital money to capture monthly, over $20M in five years.
  • KoftaBob 6y ago
    A lot of apartment buildings are owned by real estate developers and private equity firms. It's not always one dude that owns a ton of buildings.
    • cephaslr 6y ago
      Honest question, wouldn’t the 80/20 rule in these cases still imply large majority owners in most cases? Wealth concentration figures I have seen (0.1% own 20% of the nations wealth for example) seem to support this view?
  • AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    Sure, if they own outright, rather than having borrowed money to buy the apartment complexes, and if they don't have to pay maintenance, insurance, landscaping, and so on. It's not just free money. They're making money, sure, but considerably less than your calculation.
    • jimmaswell 6y ago
      Lots of landlords don't pay any of those things.
      • AnimalMuppet 6y ago
        Lots of landlords don't insure their buildings? Lots of landlords don't pay for maintenance on their buildings? I call baloney.
        • 6y ago
• burlesona 6y ago
  At my office (working in tech in downtown SF) about 30-40% of employees have moved out of the city. Many plan for it to be temporary (why pay SF rent for the months we are all remote). Some are clearly hoping it will be permanent, but I think the chances of that are slim. I think we are on track to offer a lot more remote options than we did in the past - but I think that in 2021 a decision to stay remote will mean a huge pay cut.
• KoftaBob 6y ago
  World's smallest violin plays for all the landlords and homeowners who may no longer benefit from the Bay Area's absurd restrictions on new housing In all seriousness, while I welcome the new openness to remote work, what I'd love to see is a push towards something in the middle: distributed offices. Rather than having to choose between moving to ridiculously expensive SF, or working from home in their current city, employees could go to their local coworking space. They'd get the benefits of an environment more conducive to productivity, away from the distractions of home, and the mental health benefits of social interaction. I don't think that making a huge shift to working from home is good for the already prevalent issue of loneliness. Plus, having coworking spaces spread out within the city itself means that even if your company is headquartered in your city, you don't have to make the long commute to HQ if there's a closer coworking space.
• snug 6y ago
  I've been casually looking on zillow. I have not seen rent go down in my neighborhood (NoPa)
  • mbalex99 6y ago
    Same. I’ve been eyeing Laurel Heights and Marina and I haven’t seen those places dip. However Berkeley has plummeted. It’s the only place in east bay that i would consider because there are a lot of ethnic restaurants. Ethnic diverse restaurants are key for me.
    • ummonk 6y ago
      I think some of this will be in the form of 1 or 2 months free, but it should also be noted that Laurel Heights and Marina are somewhat suburban, so to the extent people are moving away from the densest inner city locations, more suburban neighborhoods might dip less in rent.
    • Ductapemaster 6y ago
      Berkeley is a fantastic place to live! Tons of great food (all open for takeout right now), the music scene was really fun when it was open, great fresh produce available at local markets, and most of what we need is walkable from our place, including BART. Also the weather is awesome compared to the city. It's sunny most days now, and the only annoyance is that it's pretty windy in the afternoons. We been here for 10 months now, and signed for another year at our currently place with no rent increase. I didn't negotiate (our landlord offered us the same rent), but we have the best working relationship with him that I've ever had with a landlord and that's worth it to me. Also he's open to us modifying the property, which is worth something as well — he paid for ceiling fans to be installed and let me build a big garden in the backyard, for example. The place isn't perfect, but for now and especially during SIP, it's great. I expect if and when we move, we will continue to live in Berkeley.
    • snug 6y ago
      Yeah, that's what I'm seeing, however, I've seen a dip in housing pricing drop near east bay BART stations, especially West Oakland and Temescal/McArthur Area
• jt2190 6y ago
  The report referenced in the article is here: https://www.zumper.com/blog/zumper-national-rent-report-july-2020/ https://www.zumper.com/blog/zumper-national-rent-report-july...
• maxwellg 6y ago
  I'm moving out of my place at the end of July. Gonna do some short-term sublets for a few months, then move in with some friends coming up from South Bay. We've been checking Craigslist daily for weeks now and it's very exciting to see how prices have come down. We're at a point right now where we're holding out on getting a place since we expect prices to continue to drop.
• mcbutterbunz 6y ago
  I wonder what long term effects there will be with having more remote workers? There are many positive side effects such as more time now that people dont have to commute, cleaner air, happier individuals, fewer automobiles on the road. But, at the same time, will there be more urban sprawl? More alcoholism since its easier to drink at home? More loneliness or feeling less connected to your coworkers? It'll be interesting to see how things play out. Maybe there's only a small temporary change and things go back to the way they were once this is all forgotten.
• asimjalis 6y ago
  I live in the Bay Area and this has not been my experience. Looking at Craigslist and Zillow the rents are stable. Perhaps the rate of increase has slowed down slightly. That is all.
  • xenihn 6y ago
    Are you in SF? I just left a place where the landlord wasn't able to find anyone to replace me with two months notice and a 20% reduction. Lots of places aren't reducing the monthly rate outright, but are giving 1-2 months free. So a $3100 rate would actually be $2841 or $2583. This benefits them because it affects property valuation. There's other factors involved too, but this seems like the primary one.
  • AnotherGoodName 6y ago
    Yeah as i stated above if you're actually looking call them up and they'll suggest 1-2months free. Source: I'm looking right now and pretty much everyone will say yes to 1 or 2 months free. They just don't want to drop their listed prices. Perhaps to avoid renewals in the same complex citing the lower prices and negotiating or perhaps to avoid rent controls locking in rates when this ends.
    • bradlys 6y ago
      Are you looking mostly at large apartment complexes? This is not the case with single family homes for rent - as far as I can tell. The single family homes and in-law units are vanishing as fast as they ever have in the desirable areas.
      • AnotherGoodName 6y ago
        Yes. Also i think you're right there. Everyone's moving out from the more central areas to houses in the suburbs.
  • jameshawkins 6y ago
    Agreed. I (unluckily) signed a new lease in March, not thinking this was going to go on for quite so long. Before I actually moved in, I was able to negotiate a free month, but it looks like my building is now offering 6-8 free weeks, but the base rent hasn't actually changed.
• netcan 6y ago
  It was early into social distancing that big techcos started announcing/enforcing their policies on remote worker salaries... I though: that's fast. This must be reactive. Maybe lots of employees have already moved, or they expect them to. Mainstream remote work has felt 5 years away for 20 years. We kind of stopped pondering the side effects. Circa 2000 there was a lot of interesting speculation though. Housing markets. Transport markets. If a 45 minute d2d commute represents 10% of a workday, remote working increases productivity by this much. Labour market flexibility and liquidity, for what that's worth. Reversing regional brain drains. Hopefully this is because of remote work relocations, not just insolvency. On a side note, this recessing is freaking me out.
  • texasbigdata 6y ago
    Sleeping on a train, perhaps, is not the same as having the stamina to work for another 2 hours.
• tmpz22 6y ago
  I moved from a $3000 1BR in downtown to an $1100 private room (4br 2ba 3 roomates) in the outter Richmond in SF. There is no reason to live in downtown SF right now with everyone working from home. Many facebook groups are advertising significant rental decreases particularly for roomate-situations. They're calling it a "COVID discount" but I suspect its going to stick around for awhile.
  • sbierwagen 6y ago
    Yow, $1100 to have 3 roommates? That sounds painful.
    • TomVDB 6y ago
      That sounds very reasonable. It’s what my kid pays to roommate with other students in Menlo Park.
    • iaw 6y ago
      A lot of housing in the outer Richmond is comprised of larger 4 bedroom 2 bathroom units making it not that cramped of a situation.
• throwawaysea 6y ago
  I hope many of the cities that have seen rapid growth in the last decade get a similar reprieve from the strain of growth. As an example, Seattle has changed in ways that have reduced quality of life - worsening travel times, neighborhoods that look/feel completely different, visible blight everywhere, over-subscribed/crowded city amenities, etc. The culture of the city has also been overwhelmed by transplants, and with it, the old PNW spirit has effectively been smothered. The politics of the city is also completely different from what it was 15 years ago. I'd welcome an exodus here, even if it means reduced a reversal of economic growth/houses prices/etc. At the same time, I think these changes will be healthy for those who do move out. Some are moving back in with families, and the cultural continuity of multi-generational homes is an important part of human society historically. I also hope it encourages people to discover cheaper towns in the country that have been ignored and left out of the last couple decades' economic gains. Many of those places have a lot to offer, and I bet those who give them a try will be surprised how much they like it. The economies of those areas will also benefit from the boost.
• coding123 6y ago
  It's probably because they can move closer to Palo Alto, San Jose and other places now.
• B4CKlash 6y ago
  I'll add to the anecdotal evidence. I live in Denver and just resigned my lease without much in the way of increased negotiation power. I run into two main issues here: 1). Extreme information asymmetry. While many of the properties are owned by different investors, many of those same properties are managed by a significantly smaller subset. Those property managers have a cartel like effect. For instance, they can strategically hold back supply to keep a rent floor and 'establish' extremely draconian lease terms under the guise of 'market forces.' 2). Draconian lease terms. This is a subset of the 1st point, but it's extremely difficult to price the market when you're required to give (move-out) notice well in advance of the actual lease date. Because the market here is so fast, you're basically jumping in blind-folded at what might be available when you go to look for a new lease. Great for landlords you can fill a spot in a moments notice, but horrible for a tenet who's trying to understand the cost of such a decision.
  • qqqwerty 6y ago
    My understanding is that these price crashes are largely happening in the VHCOL (very high cost of living) like NYC and SF. One of the dynamics at play in the VHCOL cities is that the rent is so expensive that the cost of moving, even if only for a few months, is fairly trivial in comparison. If you are paying $4k for a 1-bdrm apartment, packing your stuff up, putting it in storage, and moving into a short-term rental in a lower COL area is likely to be net positive in term of cash flow. Financially, this make less sense in more moderate COL areas unless the pandemic/lockdown goes on for much longer, or if you can work remote permanently. So cities like Denver and Austin are probably not seeing as much outmigration, but are also probably seeing some immigration from the VHCOL areas.
    • kulahan 6y ago
      Just a friendly FYI, the opposite of immigration is emigration.
      • Anon4Now 6y ago
        Out-migration (with a dash) is fine: https://www.dictionary.com/browse/outmigration https://www.dictionary.com/browse/outmigration
• code4tee 6y ago
  Seeing lots of evidence indicating that prices are falling in cities and it’s very hard to sell. Meanwhile in the suburbs around cities the market is booming in certain segments. Lots of people who vowed they were always city dwellers are suddenly keen to live in the burbs. Hearing lots of stories of houses in desirable suburbs getting multiple competitive offers the first day they go on the market. In the rental space in suburbs and vacation communities heard lots of stories of places being rented at above market prices sight unseen by people just looking to get out of the city for the summer/year. Things will probably pick up in cities once things start to return to normal, but like a lot of things it’s likely going to be a very long time before things get back to where they were before all this started.
  • manuelabeledo 6y ago
    Where I live, it is _noticeably_ cheaper to buy a house in a suburb 20 minutes away from the city center, than renting an apartment half the size, that would cut such car trip by 10 minutes. Given the current situation, it's a no brainer.
  • nostromo 6y ago
    That seems to be the case in Seattle. Apartments in the city center are desperate to sign leases. But houses are actually a little more expensive this year, and they sell within a few days of hitting the market. And it make sense. New urbanism is dead at the moment: parks, cafes, and theaters are closed. There are no events. Nobody wants to take transit. But in single family neighborhoods, life is basically normal. Not to mention there is no traffic and gas is dirt cheap.
    • tomcam 6y ago
      Also because, you know, a goodly chunk of Seattle was ransacked, covered with graffiti, riddled with gunfire, responsible for at least 5 shootings in a month, looted, boarded up, and deprived of any protection at all.
      • Klonoar 6y ago
• omarhaneef 6y ago
  This is obviously (I believe it is obvious) related to COVID. But is this because of the general economic malaise, or because people are moving out enabled by remote work. Let's look at other places. Non-tech places which still have good jobs in, say, energy and medicine, in a place like, say, Houston: https://www.har.com/content/mls/?m=06&y=20 https://www.har.com/content/mls/?m=06&y=20 Average prices in May are down 7% to San francisco's 9%. It would seem the impact is very similar in very different cities. This doesn't help us per se because the ability to telecommute may be as valuable in Houston as it is in San Francisco. However, if you believe the kinds of industries in Houston -- medicine and energy -- are less able to be made remote (and I don't have evidence for this), we might suspect that most of the collapse in pricing is driven by job layoffs.
• narrator 6y ago
  What happened to San Francisco is that public transit is vastly degraded, and you can't use the bathroom at most private businesses, even if you buy something. Thus, you are leashed to the bathroom distance from your house. Thus, you must drive everywhere, which makes city living much much less attractive vs. being in the suburbs. Add to that that remote work is the norm now, and there seems to be a higher crime rate in the cities with all the rioting, and living in the suburbs makes a lot more sense.
  • GaryNumanVevo 6y ago
    Having lived in SF for 10 years, it's really easy to use the restroom, there are plenty of public restrooms as well... Not sure where you lived.
    • mlex 6y ago
      The parent comment is referring to conditions that have changed due to COVID (most businesses close their bathrooms now), not how available bathrooms were historically.
    • selectodude 6y ago
      Last time I was in San Francisco I noticed the entire city was an open bathroom :)
      • SomeoneFromCA 6y ago
        Open bedroom, open bathroom and beyond.
• sevencolors 6y ago
  Ugh, they interviewed someone from J.Warvo. That company is scummy. They've been renting out literal shithole apartments/studios for above average prices. But barely respond to tenant needs. I hope they collapse
  • seehafer 6y ago
    Most of the SF Property Mgmt companies are what Peter Thiel famously referred to as "urban slumlords".
• FabHK 6y ago
  > average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco fell 11.8% year over year in June, following a 9% year-over-year drop in May. So, assuming rent was approximately constant in the year up to April, it first fell 9% now in May, and then another 3% in June? Wouldn't that be a better way of putting the numbers?
  • hcs 6y ago
    It's calculated year-over-year by matching months because there are significant seasonal effects, so you can't easily go from YOY to figure how it changed month-to-month.
    • FabHK 6y ago
      Good point. However, that also means that if there is a one-off drop of, say, 10%, then newspapers could report a "10% drop YOY" in 12 successive months.
• WalterBright 6y ago
  In other words, supply+demand works and has always worked.
• ransom1538 6y ago
  I watch SF rents like a hawk. A decent 2ba/2br is $~4200 which is lower than a year ago. Also! I am seeing apartments come on the market - that haven't been on the market in 10 years: Views, custom kitchens, 1200 sqft, parking (wtf??). A handful of listings are starting to give out 1 or 2 months free (this is because they can't lower the rent due to rent control issues). But if you are looking in SF - grab something that hasn't been on the market for a decade - these are unique treasures.
  • asdff 6y ago
    What do you use to skim listings?
    • gen220 6y ago
      Not the poster, but I do identical surfing in NYC and use Zillow. It’s all about the right filters (posted in last 24 hours, prices, neighborhoods, amenities). You can set up email updates, but it’s more tedious to read the emails than it is to browse their app. My anecdotal data in NYC is identical, btw. I used to see a great apartment maybe once a week. Now, it’s closer to 5-8 per week. And they’re all “under” priced by 10-20%. I saw a rent-controlled parlor floor brownstone in Brooklyn heights recently. It’s unreal. It’s just a bit sad to think how many of these households were lived in by actual victims of the coronavirus.
  • deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  • ransom1538 6y ago
    Random example: https://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/d/san-francisco-green-jones-furnished/7151927661.html https://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/d/san-francisco-green-j... It is furnished so you can't claim rent control [not a lawyer - but they wont win]. But a true SF gem (the view is everything).
• MobileVet 6y ago
  “Zumper has been tracking rent prices across the country for over five years but we have never seen the market fluctuate quite like this,” Five whole years?!? Honestly, CNBC couldn’t find someone with more experience than this??
• DonHopkins 6y ago
  Amsterdam too. My landlord tried to retroactively raise the rent on me during the COVID crisis, so I got pissed off and rage-browsed the rental web sites, and found a great deal I couldn't refuse: I just moved from a 1 floor flat to a 4 floor house with 90% more space, backyard garden on a canal, an indoor garage (for bikes and storage since I don't have a car), near public transit, for 20% less rent! They had to lower the rent 500 EUR a month to compete with all the AirBnB's that were suddenly dumped on the long term rental market. My previous butt-hole landlord was shocked I was leaving on such short notice, and apologetic for the dick move that he tried to pull, and asked how he could convince me to stay, because he liked me as a tenant. I told him he'd have to at least give me the entire flat upstairs for free, to even get in the ballpark, and anyway it was a moot point because I'd already signed the contract. Now I am much better prepared for the COVID crisis to last an indefinitely long time, and actually have enough room to get a chest freezer for the garage, for cooking and eating at home, and set up a big separate office instead using my bedroom, for working at home.
  • onemiketwelve 6y ago
    Nice playa
    • DonHopkins 6y ago
      I have no interest in attending Burning Man.
  • castratikron 6y ago
    Interesting point about the AirBnBs. Do you know if anyone has looked into this effect closely? Seems like for all of the horrible damage being done by this disease, both physically and mentally, there are some silver linings, too.
• colordrops 6y ago
  Will the drop in rent affect purchase prices? It doesn't seem that the cost of houses is going down in SF and LA.
  • DevKoala 6y ago
    It is going down from looking at Zillow data.
  • scurvy 6y ago
    In aggregate, possibly. It's highly location and feature specific. Does your condo have an exclusive-use backyard or deed patio area? That price is jumping by huge amounts right now in SF. Is it in a high-rise only served by elevators, or do you have a private entrance? Shelter-in-place friendly features are heavily in demand right now. The old selling points of Bay views and walk-to-work are getting crushed right now. Some condos are seeing big price drops, others are on the market a few days and selling way above a healthy list. It will be interesting to see how things unfold in aggregate. San Francisco SFR is still a hot market, especially with a back yard. I'm selling my condo with exclusive yard access once I can find a place to live in Contra Costa.
  • gnicholas 6y ago
    I just sold a home and bought another near Palo Alto. Prices are down 5-10% based on our experience.
• gumby 6y ago
  I’m not seeing it in Silicon Valley. Also: in the accessible sierras (e.g. Calaveras county) rents and house prices are going up as ppl realize they can work from home up there.
• tasuki 6y ago
  Why is everything in the article in year-over-year percentages? Can't they just say how much the rent has actually fallen?
• dionidium 6y ago
  The comments here are all about the rental market, but the opposite seems to be happening in the housing market, at least where I'm at in Providence, RI. We're shopping for houses in the city and the price graphs have gone exponential. Seriously, look at the price graph on Zillow for these two places near me: * https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25-Brighton-St-Providence-RI-02909/66095703_zpid/ https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25-Brighton-St-Providence... * https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Alton-St-Providence-RI-02908/65954264_zpid/ https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Alton-St-Providence-RI-... The first one of those is in a very trendy gentrifying neighborhood. The second is in an adjacent working-class neighborhood. In both cases the asking price has shot way up from a year ago and has totally disconnected from the prevailing trends of just a couple months ago. Supply is very low. Rates are very low. And the result is that the market is very hot. Every house we look at has multiple offers the next day, usually above asking.
• bitdotdash 6y ago
  Single family home rentals seem to be going the opposite direction. My lease just came up for renewal. Tried my damnedest to talk them out of a 5% rate increase based on covid and city wide rent declines, but they said that single family homes were facing a massive inventory shortage as people were rushing from apartments to houses. =/