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No they won't. But only because there is no alternative. The vast majority of global economic activity now happens in Asia. Tech was one sweet area dominated b
by nine_zeros 6y ago
No they won't. But only because there is no alternative.
The vast majority of global economic activity now happens in Asia. Tech was one sweet area dominated by the US but even that seems to be sliding (happily being enabled by the administration).
Once these economic activity participants figure out a way to avoid the dollar, they will (there is no goodwill with the dollar). When this happens, its done. We are busted.
That said, nobody is moving away from the dollar soon. However, we need to elect representatives who don't jeopardize this. Being the global reserve means moving in lock step with the world. It doesn't mean reneging or bullying.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoI can certainly see why maintaining the dollar's position requires cultivating a reputation as a country that doesn't bully others or renege on its agreements. But again, what does that have to do with gun violence?
- nine_zeros 6y agoIt projects the US as an uncivilized country, on par with mismanaged democracies where kids are routinely shot in schools.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoSure, but you could make that argument about any problem in the US. Is there a reason to believe gun violence is particularly problematic to foreign investors? If not it's pretty strange to bring up foreign investment as a reason we should prevent gun violence.
- nine_zeros 6y agoIn isolation, it's just another problem. As part of a bigger picture, it's a reflection of society. There is real fear that the US government is just incompetent and gun violence is part of that jigsaw puzzle of deciphering if the US is actually going to grow in the future.
- nickthemagicman 6y agoThe US GDP in 2019 was bigger than the next three countries combined. I'm not sure your statement is accurate
- pphysch 6y agoThe article makes the point that America could be seen as undesirable to live in for highly-skilled workers (by extension companies). If that happens, GDP balance could shift dramatically in a short period of time. Notwithstanding GDP being kind of a BS metric.
- nine_zeros 6y agoGDP is an inaccurate measure since it's really comparing wealth of nations and not total number of economic activity in nations. This metric massively skews economic activity due to currency conversion. This can be easily deducted from population. More population == more haircuts overall. There is no way the US is getting more haircuts than China or India. GDP (PPP) is a much better metric for economic activity overall. In this China has the US beat and India is third. Makes sense with so much population.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoSure, but by the haircut metric, it's inevitable that most economic activity will take place on the continent where most people live. There's no economic policy the US could pursue to prevent that, even if for some amoral reason they wanted to.
- nine_zeros 6y agoPrevention is the wrong approach in the first place. The only thing US can do is maintain a technological lead. Without technological lead, the US is much like Brazil, which is a middling nation with lots of natural resources.
- nickthemagicman 6y agoThat's a fascinating measure. Thanks for sharing that. I didn't even know about that. It would seem that our currency is overvalued then if our true output is skewed by our currency exchange rates? How does that reconcile?
- MR4D 6y ago> The vast majority of global economic activity now happens in Asia For production, yes. For consumption, no. Take away American consumption, and lots of countries will fall into decline very quickly. Sadly I might be proven correct in the next 12-24 months.