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If better models of climate change allow us to predict more precisely what will happen, we may be able to get people to care more. If we can say with a high deg
by ip26 6y ago
If better models of climate change allow us to predict more precisely what will happen, we may be able to get people to care more. If we can say with a high degree of certainty that City X is going to see 4.5x as many terrible hurricanes every year, then the people of City X may have a more vested interest than if we say "there will probably be more hurricanes".
- hannob 6y agoThe counterexample is Australia. We can say with high certainty that the great barrier reef will die unless some miracle happens and the world limits warming to 1.5°. And even then most of the reef will be gone. Yet Australia is a country that basically has no real climate policy at all, they still plan for decades of new(!) coal extraction.
- ip26 6y agoThat is an excellent counterexample. It defies comprehension.
- imtringued 6y agoThe problem is that nobody cares about your model. If it's too grim then people will refuse to believe it. If it's too optimistic people won't do anything.