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All of the uncertainty around COVID-19 means that we'll build whatever complex models we want, but then just stare blankly and wonder how the hell to choose val

All of the uncertainty around COVID-19 means that we'll build whatever complex models we want, but then just stare blankly and wonder how the hell to choose values for various coefficients. References? COVID-19's behavior has been quite simple so far. Exponential growth with variations. It's more predictable than the weather next week, overall. The American curve and European curve are somewhat different, yes but the differences can be explained by the total fucked-up the American virus control efforts have been. Oh, and the American failures were accompanied by complaints about uncertainty and how much virus control efforts would cost. Now, we will find out how much a lack of control is going to cost.

thdrdt 6y ago
"COVID-19's behavior has been quite simple so far." What do you mean with behavior? People are still discussing how it spreads. The latest news is it travels as aerosol and that in badly ventilated rooms keeping 1.5m distance is not going to help much. And also that the amount of virus particles you inhale determines how sick you get. So it is only predictable when we know how it is growing exponential. The still ongoing discussion about how it spreads creates uncertainty.
- joe_the_user 6y ago
  Overall behavior - how it spreads and effects people in aggregate. It spreads by air primarily (aerosol isn't "the latest news", it's what's been said from the start with any other transmission method speculative). Yes, a zillion uncertain details. Covid is a simple as any of the things we meet in daily, in aggregate, as simple as rain or dirty. The behavior in detail of any of these things is incredibly complex, of course. The forms rain takes are distinctly complex but is nearly falls roughly downwards and gets things wet (exceptions to everything, of course). People have more incentive to look at the details of Covid 'cause it's much deadly than rain or dirt. But even more, lots of people use Covid's uncertainty to argue against any mitigating measures they find inconvenient - and that part is kind of despicable.

thdrdt 6y ago

"COVID-19's behavior has been quite simple so far." What do you mean with behavior? People are still discussing how it spreads. The latest news is it travels as aerosol and that in badly ventilated rooms keeping 1.5m distance is not going to help much. And also that the amount of virus particles you inhale determines how sick you get. So it is only predictable when we know how it is growing exponential. The still ongoing discussion about how it spreads creates uncertainty.

joe_the_user 6y ago
Overall behavior - how it spreads and effects people in aggregate. It spreads by air primarily (aerosol isn't "the latest news", it's what's been said from the start with any other transmission method speculative). Yes, a zillion uncertain details. Covid is a simple as any of the things we meet in daily, in aggregate, as simple as rain or dirty. The behavior in detail of any of these things is incredibly complex, of course. The forms rain takes are distinctly complex but is nearly falls roughly downwards and gets things wet (exceptions to everything, of course). People have more incentive to look at the details of Covid 'cause it's much deadly than rain or dirt. But even more, lots of people use Covid's uncertainty to argue against any mitigating measures they find inconvenient - and that part is kind of despicable.