3 ms·

Death lags new case by as much as a month (due to time from infection to death). So we won't really know if there is an increase an death due to the new cases

• nostrebored 6y ago
  The death rate absolutely does respond more quickly than a month, and in a time series with this distribution the tail of the data is not the most important factor. We should be seeing increased deaths from this in places that have reopened weeks ago. The problem is, we accelerated deaths drastically due to insane public policies like housing the sick in close quarters with the elderly. In engineering, overengineering like this wastes time. In public health, it kills people. My expectation is that we'll see an increase in infection rate, a decrease in new deaths per day, and we'll have spikes associated with pockets of the elderly who were previously not impacted being exposed.