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This is an idea about society I've been musing a while. As a society hits prosperity it invests in infrastructure with a limited lifespan (even if decades) and
by maerF0x0 6y ago
This is an idea about society I've been musing a while. As a society hits prosperity it invests in infrastructure with a limited lifespan (even if decades) and therefore there is a certain depreciation rate of infra happening each year. Eventually the infrastructure will rise such that the depreciation rate will have equilibrium with income. At that point the society cannot take on any new projects without deciding it will abandon something else.
A similar thing often happens in software -- Product Managers are given scope to build projects of a certain size, but rarely does the business commit to keeping a certain percentage of engineers on to maintain the project forever. So the project decays and the customers eventually walk away. But the Product person has already moved on to other things so they're no longer accountable for the long term picture....
Just some musings, not really sure how widespread/factual it is or solutions...
- nradov 6y agoSure that happens to some products but it's not inevitable. The current Microsoft Word code base has been actively maintained and enhanced for over 25 years. Customers aren't walking away yet.
- maerF0x0 6y agodefinitely agree there are exceptions, and microsoft certainly is exceptional in many ways...
- kthejoker2 6y agoSoftware is more like a Ship of Theseus in a way that roads are not. That is, the cost to "switch out" one version of software for another is effectively zero, so if makes sense to "maintain" the product in perpetuity. For a road and other capital expenditures with heavy dependencies, your "lifecycle" is As few changes as possible; and then, all of it changes.
- tonyedgecombe 6y agoCustomers aren't walking away yet. It would be interesting to see usage figures. Twenty five years ago creating a new Word document would be an almost daily occurrence for me. Now it is a rarity. I have a sense that one day it will just disappear and nobody will notice.
- octodog 6y agoThis is really cool, what you have just described is actually a pretty important concept in macroeconomics and is described in the Solow-Swan model [1]. As you say, infrastructure (and all physical capital) depreciates, so some amount of savings must be allocated towards replenishing it. Any leftover savings can be invested into more physical capital (be it tractors, roads, computers), which creates economic growth. However, if you assume that there are diminishing returns to physical capital, then eventually the capital required to replenish depreciation will be equal to the entire income saved (total income less consumption) by an economy. At this point, known as the "steady-state", economic growth falls to 0. If you are interested in knowing more about the Solow-Swan model I'd recommend these introductory youtube videos [2]. The first three in the playlist in particular outline the basics pretty well. It must be noted that the Solow-Swan model is quite a simple model and it doesn't completely explain how economies work. For example, the role of human capital (education) and technological advances aren't fully captured. However, it is useful for understanding some of the factors that drive economic growth, particularly in the cases of post-war Germany and Japan or modern day China. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solow%E2%80%93Swan_model [2]: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-uRhZ_p-BM6L_I3IHvE85NHooK2Ln9Rm https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-uRhZ_p-BM6L_I3IHvE8...