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> The United States just did this to China by limiting Huawei’s ability to outsource its in-house chip designs for manufacture by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactu
by ardy42 6y ago
> The United States just did this to China by limiting Huawei’s ability to outsource its in-house chip designs for manufacture by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a Taiwanese chip foundry. If negotiations fail, China may respond and escalate, via one of many agile strategic responses short of war, perhaps succeeding in coercing the foundry to stop making chips for American companies – turning the tables on the United States.
How would the PRC succeed in convincing TSMC to stop producing chips for the US, short of military action? The PRC is Taiwan's primary military adversary, and the US is Taiwan's primary military supplier and ally. IIRC, TSMC even recently agreed to build a foundry on US soil (which is kinda surprising, since that reduces the incentive of the US to defend Taiwan in a military conflict with the PRC).
- Aperocky 6y agoIf China were go to war with Taiwan, US would be involved in a civil war in China de jure if it wants to intervene. Because US recognize both mainland China and Taiwan as one 'China', without specifying which. The internet would like to tell you that China and Taiwan are totally different country but US policy doesn't recognize that. And changing that policy one week into the conflict does not look good on the optics.
- throwanem 6y agoPolicy optics are secondary here. Even were the US to attempt some military intervention, which I think quite unlikely, it would not be a war we could win.
- knodi 6y agoI doubt the current occupants of the whitehouse care about optics at this point.
- JumpCrisscross 6y ago> US recognize both mainland China and Taiwan as one 'China’ This is a 70s era policy that is increasingly paid just lip service to.
- ardy42 6y ago> Because US recognize both mainland China and Taiwan as one 'China', without specifying which. The internet would like to tell you that China and Taiwan are totally different country but US policy doesn't recognize that. US policy does de facto recognizes Taiwan. For instance, it has an embassy there, it just doesn't call it one; and it sells Taiwan weapons over PRC objections. The only reason the US doesn't recognize Taiwan de jure is a Cold War era compromise with PRC diplomatic policy, and the fact that the current ambiguity works reasonably well for all parties right now. IIRC, some US political factions advocate for formally recognizing Taiwan (for example: https://twitter.com/ambjohnbolton/status/1250501579070980099 https://twitter.com/ambjohnbolton/status/1250501579070980099).
- Aperocky 6y agoYou're absolutely correct, but de facto is not de jure. There's nothing easier to do than for China to point to this policy and say America is sending troops to an internal conflict in China.
- ardy42 6y ago> You're absolutely correct, but de facto is not de jure. I'd say the existence of the de facto recognition is more significant than the lack of de jure recognition. There's no real central authority in international relations, so the official statements and pieces of paper are pretty meaningless without the de facto actions of the countries in question back them up. > There's nothing easier to do than for China to point to this policy and say America is sending troops to an internal conflict in China. It's easy for the PRC to say whatever it likes, who else cares is a different matter.
- dnh44 6y agoIt’s a little bit like the story of The Emperors New Clothes though. Everyone knows Taiwan is independent but officially we all pretend it’s not.
- blackrock 6y agoWell, the two, China and Taiwan, are technically still in a state of Civil War. So, no, this issue is not resolved, regardless of whoever says it is.
- pwaivers 6y agoPlease read the rest of the article. It discusses how China could force TSMC to stop producing chips. It even covers the US foundry, and why it won't make a difference.
- riku_iki 6y agoOptions listed in article: - direct military invasion - disinformation campaign - trade war with Taiwan - nationalization of old fabs in China - missile strikes on TSMC facilities in Taiwan
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y ago- Encouraging NK to start the missile rain towards SK (bye bye Samsung)
- joshuaissac 6y agoThat does not really help China.
- mywittyname 6y agoIt provides cover. Between that, and racial tensions in the US, the US military will have their hands full.
- LargoLasskhyfv 6y agoI wrote that in reply to - missile strikes on TSMC facilities in Taiwan Wouldn't that be all out war? Then why stopping half way? If the goal is denial/disruption of chip production.
- jariel 6y agoThose are not really 'options' because they have existential consequences. 'Missiles'? Really? Anyone can theoretically use 'missiles' to knock out the production capacity of some competitor's fabs. It would be fatal to China's ambitions in everything because the world's reaction would be quite strong. China has a lot of people upset around the world, but a lot of voices are muted because of perceived repercussions, but something 'over the top' would encourage all of those voices to come out at once. Even Russia would have to 'think again' about their relationship.
- trasz 6y agoI guess the question is, who would be more profitable for Taiwan as a customer - Chinese, or USA-based companies?
- microcolonel 6y agoTaiwan also has soul, though. It is not a completely cynical actor like PRC.
- trasz 6y agoI'm pretty sure China has soul too, actually multiple ones. But it's not about soul, it's about money; that's what shareholders care about. There's also the question of security - cooperating with China could lower the risk of being invaded, simply because there would be nothing to gain by doing so. (Although one of the comments below explains pretty well why invading Taiwan would be pointless anyway.)