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Alibaba is making huge investment in AI, 5G and IoT chips. They are totally bypassing the Intel<>Arm general purpose CPU battle because that isn't the future. T
by staycoolboy 6y ago
Alibaba is making huge investment in AI, 5G and IoT chips. They are totally bypassing the Intel<>Arm general purpose CPU battle because that isn't the future. The new fabs in Pingtouge are just the beginning. China has the skill, the money, and the motiviation. There's no reason why they need to be dependent on chips from Intel and Arm licensees. Ever since the mid-1990s the US has tried to use laws to prevent exports and hinder China (P6 export laws anyone?), 5G laws are nothing new.
This will end up with China exceeding US fab capacity and supplying chips to all non US & European countries in 10 years.
I'm not making a value judgement, I'm saying that if a country is going to try to hold you back by limiting your access to technology, you just develop your own.
- magicsmoke 6y agoIt's interesting how all the actions the author thinks China will take involves military coercion of Taiwan in some form. When all you know how to use is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. The idea that China could build an alternative to TSMC instead of trying to take it apparently doesn't compute.
- dathinab 6y agoThe author did mention that China is trying to do so since a while but is not quite there yet.
- Teever 6y ago> When all you know how to use is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. you're implying that the author has violent predispositions?
- joshuaissac 6y agoI think the commenter is suggesting that the author's understanding of China's military/retaliatory capability against Taiwan is his "hammer", so his predictions of Chinese actions may be biased accordingly.
- blackrock 6y agoExactly. Taiwan is really useless in regards to CPU manufacturing for China. Why? Assuming people thinks that China will invade Taiwan just to take over TSMC, then what? 1) TSMC doesn’t build the tools that builds the microchips. In fact, they probably don’t even know how to build it, or even know the optical science to research and develop it. That dubious honor goes to ASML, and some other Japanese companies. But ASML, the euro company is currently in the lead for 5nm. TSMC just knows how to use their machine, and to get better at it. And to be clear, ASML doesn’t know how to manufacture the chips like TSMC can, so both companies need each other, in a symbiotic type of relationship. 2) In the event of war, then the losing side can just bomb TSMC factories. Then everyone is screwed. No more advanced microchips for anyone. 3) If China succeeds in invading Taiwan, then the USA will just force ASML to stop selling their equipment to China, like they already do now. So, China is back at square one. They might have the current technology, but no ability to advance to newer technologies. The only viable solution for China, is to build their own chip making tools, and fabrication factories. Thus removing ASML and TSMC from the equation completely. Also, they will gain independent Intellectual Property rights and patents to their own indigenous R&D. The American government is apparently thinking that China doesn’t have the skills to do this.
- jbay808 6y agoCan the US actually prevent ASML from selling equipment to China? ASML is not American. Also, given how obscenely expensive a war would be, couldn't China save money by just hiring the entirety of TSMC's and ASML's technical staff at 10x the market rate for ten years? Paying a premium to headhunt technical experts is a tried-and-true method of catching up to a front-runner. In fact, both Taiwan and South Korea did this, poaching underpaid Japanese talent.
- davrosthedalek 6y agoThe US not directly, but certainly EU can. And if China actually starts a war, it is likely that the EU would be rather opposed to helping China.
- joshuaissac 6y ago
- catalogia 6y agoIs a TSMC fab such an easy thing to even take? I expect it could be sabotaged easily by the US or Taiwan if there were an imminent threat of it being captured by PRC forces.
- microcolonel 6y agoI've been told that they have a contingency for this, that much of the design collateral is literally rigged for destruction. And I'm inclined to believe it: TSMC guaranteeing that PRC would fail to capitalize on their assets if they invaded Taiwan is a primary national security concern for the Republic of China.
- catalogia 6y agoIt seems believable to me. I've heard some other countries (South Korea, and Switzerland maybe?) have/had bridges rigged to blow up or mountain passes rigged to be blocked by massive concrete structures above them.
- welterde 6y agoIn Germany certain bridges were also rigged with explosives during the cold war. But they have since been removed.
- skissane 6y agoNorth of Sydney, Australia, there is a 1.69km (just over 1 mile) long railway tunnel on the main northern railway line called the Woy Woy Tunnel. During WW2, a short additional tunnel was dug above the tunnel entrance, to be filled with explosives in order to blow it up. This was so that if Japan invaded, the Japanese military would not be able to use the railway line to help them invade Sydney. The feared Japanese land invasion never came, the explosives were never detonated, but the tunnel dug for the explosives is still there today: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Interior_of_World_War_2_demolition_tunnel_above_the_northern_portal_of_the_Woy_Woy_railway_tunnel.JPG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Interior_of_World_War_2_d... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Interior_of_World_War_2_demolition_tunnel_above_the_northern_portal_of_the_Woy_Woy_railway_tunnel.JPG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Interior_of_World_War_2_d...
- sbmthakur 6y ago> The idea that China could build an alternative to TSMC instead of trying to take it apparently doesn't compute. The author does point out that it will take years for any new replacement to reach TMSC's capacity.
- rbecker 6y agoTime flies, and China has proven it's willing to stand behind investments for 'years'.
- T-A 6y agohttps://technode.com/2020/05/22/smic-to-the-rescue-huawei-shouldnt-hold-its-breath-experts/ https://technode.com/2020/05/22/smic-to-the-rescue-huawei-sh... https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/smic-chinas-biggest-chipmaker-is-still-years-behind-its-rivals.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/smic-chinas-biggest-chipmake...
- monocasa 6y agoThat's what in fact what they're doing. SMIC is in 14nm risk production, and aggressively working on EUV.
- AnthonyMouse 6y agoWe're also rapidly hurtling towards the end of transistor scaling, full stop. When "start of the art" stops being a moving target, how long before everybody has it? We're still several years from that, but probably not several decades from it.
- monocasa 6y agoI'm actually pretty curious to see what happens then, and don't have a great answer. Where I'm at currently is that I imagine anyone who wants a leading edge fab for geopolitical reasons will have one, but not much beyond that except the legacy cases like Samsung and TSMC. It'll still be in the ~$20B to create a fab, and for what at the end of the day? Slightly better (probably single digit) margins for what has essentially become a commodity anyways? Beyond militaries that can foot the massive bill to be assured that they're getting the chips they certified, nearly everyone else will have better options to invest in to differentiate themselves. For instance a great question is if the EU thinks a fab is worth the effort? Probably not in today's climate, and would most likely be a sign of the end of US geopolitical domination if they do feel the need.
- SomaticPirate 6y agoBryan Cantrill has a great talk on this and the end of scaling https://youtu.be/TM9h89Vo_Qo https://youtu.be/TM9h89Vo_Qo It really seems like we are going to see new architecture paradigms emerge and start seeing more powerful compute in smaller places.
- ChuckNorris89 6y ago>For instance a great question is if the EU thinks a fab is worth the effort? Most EU countries have fabs, even small countries like Switzerland and Austria although they're not as cutting edge as TSMC.
- rezeroed 6y agoPerhaps the thought is, controlling TSMC controls supply to other countries.
- chrisjc 6y agoI think it's pretty safe to say that they always were in the process of developing their own. They never weren't. All this is going to do is accelerate those plans.
- zozbot234 6y ago> I'm saying that if a country is going to try to hold you back by limiting your access to technology, you just develop your own. Yes but this would take a very long time, so from the OP's "strategic" POV it's just not relevant in the short-to-medium term. The supply chain for reasonably "advanced" electronics (the sorts you'll need if you want a usable 4G/5G mobile network, etc.) is extremely complex and any single country would be at a disadvantage if they tried to develop every part of it domestically. Plus China would also have plenty of catch up to reach state-of-the-art tech.
- tartoran 6y agoPlus China went all in with this, Im thinking a lot of western countries would now be a lot more vigilent about copyright theft. China has been good at making imitations and improving on them due to their low labor cost and high production capacity. Once left on their own devices they’d inevitably screw up somewhere and being how top down they’re being governed they would be a lot less nimble IMO. But let’s see
- staycoolboy 6y ago> Yes but this would take a very long time, I don't think this argument works in 2020. There are dozens of fabs in China on line and coming on line. Sure, fabs are expensive: $5B for 7nm fab, plus what, a billion more for talent? China is throwing trillions at this. The other claim implicit in this argument is that China isn't smart enough, like there's a monopoly of fab engineers: only the smart ones live in the US and work for Intel and AMD. That is nonsense bordering on racism (chinese are too dumb to compete). The rest of the supply chain: sort, test, packaging, assembly... is trivial by comparison. And Singapore does almost all of this for Intel due to lax environmental regulations: die are shipped from the US fabs in Oregon, Santa Clara and Arizona to Singapore for the final steps before being shipped back for sale. Guess where all of that post-manufacturing machinery comes from? Yup: China. Even the test equipment. It's almost like most of the people on this thread don't realize china makes their own CPUs, chipsets, and motherboards that we never even see or hear about unless you go to ISSCC, HotChips, or Embedded World. Stroll through here looking at wafer size and technology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat... EDIT: edited for snark and clarity.
- rezeroed 6y agoBasically how black markets form. "Fine, we'll play our own game".
- time0ut 6y agoChina is also make large investments in side stepping Intel and AMD in the form of Zhaoxin's x86 CPUs. At the rate they are progressing, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they at least match Intel and AMD on x86 performance within 10 years.
- hajile 6y agoThat's just a dream. Chip design is generally hard. Chip design using the bloated, legacy x86 is doubly hard. Almost all of the resident experts with decades of expertise in all the weirdness and pitfalls of the ISA reside at AMD or Intel.
- gok 6y agoWhat is an IoT chip but a cheap low power general purpose chip?
- staycoolboy 6y agoIt's not. They are SoC (system on chip). They come loaded with peripherals, like NICs, UARTs, I2C, SPI, ADC, RTC, crypto, DSP, Ai acceleration, etc. The CPU usually takes up a small fraction of the die and isn't the selling point, the integration and IO fabric is just as important.
- gok 6y agoHow is that different from an SoC used for...literally anything else?
- flyinglizard 6y agoIt’s not.
- kanox 6y agoCompletely agree: China is the world largest economy and any attempt at withholding technology from them will just result in them building domestic equivalents faster. I don't see what the US can gain from the war.
- justicezyx 6y agoT head is a fabless chip maker. Is there actually fab factory being setup by alibaba?
- m0zg 6y agoWith all that skill, money, and motivation, they're still 10 years behind Taiwan. Hmm. I wonder why that is.
- orionblastar 6y agoOr use open source hardware like the Riscv5
- MaxBarraclough 6y agoCan anyone comment on the future/relevance of the Loongson project, with MIPS64?
- ladyanita22 6y agoIsn't mips dead except for IoT?
- MaxBarraclough 6y agoI don't think so, looking at [0], but I'm not sure what they're being used for. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson#Loongson_microprocessor_specifications https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loongson#Loongson_microprocess...
- namelosw 6y agoActually a lot of people in China also agree they should joint the CPU battle since this year. In China, there was always an ongoing debate on if we should design our own chip for quite a while. From the economical perspective, there's no point in making our own because it would cost a lot, for the first few years there would be no profit, and the very likely not cheap to produce while not as fast as Intel and Qualcomm. From a risk management perspective, of course, it's useful if China was sanctioned. Actually, there were several attempts many years ago, and the government invested in those projects. Eventually, people called out those are frauds because they just re-label existing chips from those well-known brands without doing anything. After several times of this kind of scandal, people started to lose trust and faith in this, and the debate died down for quite a while, until now. While a lot of people in the US are debating if they should bring critical industries back to the US this year, Chinese people brought back the debate about if they should develop their own chip almost as soon as Huawei was listed on the 'entity list'. This time more people seem to agree that they should have their own chips, and many people even think it as a threat to the Chinese nation because it seems to be one throat to choke (China become more or less a nationalist country during the suffering century of humiliation, plus some communist legacy, thus the sense of crisis and the reaction). It says that Huawei is already starting to build its own chips. My personal guess is the government would strategically invest resources in this field as well because it just seems to be too important.
- zalkota 6y agoChina still buys jet engines from Russia, they’ve had 35 years to create a fighter jet engine and they still can’t figure it out. Not everyone can solve complex issues.
- throw51319 6y agoMaybe they don't see the point of wasting manpower when they can let Russia handle it. (seems like one of Russia's historical fortes)
- SomeoneFromCA 6y agoRussia is about to become a completely, wildly different place. The Putin's regime is on its last legs, and the next leader, would very possibly distance himself from China.