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Apollo – Funding for Moonshots
- three_seagrass 6y agoI'm probably ignorant in this, but this program feels like normal venture capital with different branding. Moonshots are very exciting but also have an incredibly low success rate. Investing in only five companies makes me believe that they're either setting themselves up for failure (unlikely bc these people are smart) or they're trying to fish for startup pitches with a different branding approach.
- d_silin 6y agoWe'll apply, for sure. P.S. Our moonshot: https://www.exodusorbitals.com https://www.exodusorbitals.com
- KingFelix 6y agoWhat's your moonshot?
- d_silin 6y agoBeating Elon Musk in his game, for starts. We are working on making space more accessible for everyone, through "satellite-as-a-service" model. We will allow software developers to upload their code to our satellite, creating an application development platform in space. You can read more about us at our website in parent comment.
- KingFelix 6y agoExcellent, self promote! Diving into the site now
- sargun 6y agoWhat is your approach to time sharing, and packaging? Do I send you an ELF binary, source, a Docker container? I read: https://www.exodusorbitals.com/files/nova_mission.pdf https://www.exodusorbitals.com/files/nova_mission.pdf Will there only be one instance of the "user segment" per Satellite, or will there be one supervisor / bus, with lots of simultaneously running user segments?
- d_silin 6y agoThe short answer: you send us the source, we build, test and deploy the application package (binary+configuration files) to the satellite user segment. The answer to "one or many user segments" will depend on what we will learn from that ESA mission ourselves. Some satellite instruments can be shared simultaneously, some require exclusive access and have to be accessed in sequential order.
- gfodor 6y agoI'm not sure what you mean, but you're not building and launching rockets afaict.
- d_silin 6y agoThe endgame for SpaceX (and us) is not building and launching rockets (or satellites). The endgame for all of us is large-scale colonization of Solar System.
- meagher 6y ago> There will be an optional founder equity exchange with other companies in the program, which will somewhat reduce the risk for founders and hopefully encourage a lot of collaboration. This is super cool. I wonder where this idea came from.
- jonny_eh 6y agohttps://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/03/18/470866146/episode-690-all-in https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2016/03/18/470866146/epis...
- three_seagrass 6y agoThat's the poker tournament insurance pool episode, isn't it?
- bkohlmann 6y agoSounds similar to what Pando is doing via future earnings pools: https://medium.com/@pearvc/making-things-possible-pandos-path-to-an-8m-series-a-c82c30422b3 https://medium.com/@pearvc/making-things-possible-pandos-pat...
- chegra 6y agoI had a similar idea back in 2010. See here :https://web.archive.org/web/20101218084431/http://chestergrant.posterous.com/startup-insurance https://web.archive.org/web/20101218084431/http://chestergra... " October 12, 2010 Startup Insurance This post is another theoretical post. Humans by nature are very risk averse. Start-up in itself is very risky with a high probability of failure. Failure in the start up world means lost time, lost opportunity, lost capital, lost confidence and so much more. For some of us we handle these risk pretty well and can perform excellent under these conditions, but for most of us, we would rather have these risk mitigated if we could . One of the questions I have often pondered was how to succeed at this start up game in one go? How do I mitigate my risk to the point that failure is almost impossible? Consider VC or even Y-combinator, the way they mitigate their risk is to acquire small equity in a lot of companies. The companies that make a killing pay for those that didn’t make one. Let suppose you had 10million to invest and you are investing 20k into each business for 10% equity and the probability of making 100million is 10%[These numbers were chosen for ease of calculation and only here to illustrate a point] . The probability that you don’t make back your 10million is 1 x 10^-23 reflecting a very minute risk. In the case above, only the VCs are actually reducing their risk; the startup themselves are still faced with 90% chance of failure. I think startups should basically use the same strategies as VCs to mitigate their risk. Each startup donates 5% equity to what would be the equivalence of an insurance scheme, if somehow your start goes bust, no need to worry cause at the end of period you would be given profits from all the rest companies that participated which should be enough to get you back on your feet."
- KoftaBob 6y agoI'm all for supporting moonshot ventures! I did find it amusing though that "affordable housing" is listed as an example of a moonshot venture, considering the core reason behind high housing costs (in the US at least) is overly restrictive zoning. Though I guess one could say it would take a venture of that scale to defeat the entrenched and gatekeeping NIMBYs and enable much more housing to be built.
- Synaesthesia 6y agoIt doesn’t take a genius to figure out how to make affordable housing. It’s not like the US can’t afford it. It’s a wealthy country, look how much they have for the military. It’s just not a problem capitalism is gonna solve. There isn’t huge profit to be made. Government could solve it.
- ohples 6y agoSomething something socialism, something bootstraps.
- luckylion 6y agoGovernment can't really solve it either, but Cooperatives are a great way to handle it in my opinion. Next to individual ownership, it's pretty much the only thing where the interests align. You don't want to live in government housing when money is tight and some company offers a quick buck to pluck up that hole in the budget. Coops don't have that problem, they can't be sold, as they're owned by their members, which are largely also their renters.
- gyger 6y agoI agree, coops are the way to go with housing. They can be supported by the state in terms of low cost land rental or tax benefits. I am always wondering why not more businesses are structured around coops and the state is not pushing this more.
- cinntaile 6y agoThat's what Sweden thought as well. Almost all "owned" apartments in Sweden are coops, yet there is a gigantic housing crisis in Sweden. A lot of places around the world have problems with affordable housing. In all those places attempts have been made to solve this issue. If this were an easy problem as many people seem to claim it is (I am not saying you said this) then it would have been solved already. It is not. The people running this fund realize that this problem is a lot harder than what it looks like on the surface.
- deepnotderp 6y agoThis is awesome! It will be interesting to see if a new trend of moonshot project startups emerge, and if their returns can be comparable to software startups.
- rl3 6y ago>... and if their returns can be comparable to software startups. Strictly speaking, there's nothing that says moonshot startups can't be pure software plays.
- ajsharp 6y agoCheers to this. Startups and the ecosystem in general (funding) seem increasingly drawn to incrementalism -- largely unimaginative solutions to low-stakes problems but with a high perceived exit probability. We need way more things like this.
- NewEntryHN 6y ago"Moonshot" and "Apollo" as in "vast spending of money for a show of that isn't actually transformative but is cool"?
- kens 6y agoAs a historical note, the actual Apollo project to the moon cost $25.4 billion dollars, which corresponds to over $150 billion in current dollars. So this funding is about 4 orders of magnitude short of the real moonshot. (This is not meant as a criticism of Apollo Projects, but just to put things in scale.)
- mritchie712 6y agoTo be fair, they're not expecting you to put someone on the moon with $3M > We expect you to have a big vision and a “Tesla Roadster”—a concrete first step, ideally something you can accomplish in a year or two Seems the $3M is to get to that first step vs. achieve the vision.
- winrid 6y agoIsn't that what 10x engineers are for? :) :)
- newbie789 6y agoSorry if this sounds dumb, but what is a "charter country"? Are there examples of startups doing this?
- jonny_eh 6y agoSounds like “seasteading”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading
- RNCTX 6y agoaka peter's pedophile paradise.
- newbie789 6y agoIt doesn't look like that's had a great track record in terms of actual country building. If they meant seasteading I suppose I can see why they'd avoid using that phrase but then I'm doubly confused as to why they'd point it out as a category for investment. I'm curious as to how historically "charter countries" are significantly different from a model like imperialism, and if I'm entirely off base here what startups would qualify as a success in this category (that I've obviously clearly failed to understand.)
- abdullahkhalids 6y agoBecause starting a country is really hard. Technical issues aside, you have to convince at least one, and ideally several, countries to accept the passport you issue and engage with you diplomatically. Besides, there is no real history of country creation without violence to assert borders, and a charter country would assert a monopoly on violence within its geographic borders, which can displease a lot of other countries. > significantly different from a model like imperialism You can imagine a direct democracy anarchist commune charter country. Which is pretty opposite to imperialism.
- owenversteeg 6y agoSo what other VCs are out there funding moonshots? I'm curious, cause I'm working on a moonshot of my own. It's still fairly early-stage (self funding, saving money by doing a lot myself + hiring Russian aerospace engineers) so if there's anyone here on HN with a spare 20k/100k/1MM they want to spend on awesome futuristic technology, my email's in my profile :) I'm keeping the specifics of my company under wraps (to everyone but potential investors), but the idea is radically improved long distance transportation here on Earth with a near-zero carbon footprint as one benefit. I've considered various US gov't funding options, which can be really nice (they don't take any equity & some are pretty lax with how you spend the money) but those take a while to get, and you generally need someone who's got experience writing proposals if you want to have a good chance.
- d_silin 6y agoSomeone said "Russian aerospace engineers"? Can you share a bit about your idea? My email is contact@exodusorbitals.com
- owenversteeg 6y agoSure! Sent you an email :) Hiring Russian aerospace engineers worked out great for me so far, but I'm not sure I'd recommend the process to most startups. The biggest thing is that the geniuses that speak English well have all left Russia for various reasons. That leaves you with either non-geniuses, or geniuses with poor English. Usually, they've tried to learn English themselves and didn't get as far as they'd like, so "just hire a language coach" isn't a simple solution here. If you just want a lot of average engineer bodies, though, you can get that for cheap. I imagine it'd be ideal for something like building a tunnel or a bridge, with a lot of routine calculations and established design procedures. The other big thing is the hiring itself. I got extremely lucky - I'm good friends with a great Russian technical recruiter living in Moscow, who was able to actually find people for me. But even with that huge advantage, it was tough. If anyone has questions about the process, ask away - the idea of hiring expert engineers/programmers from cheaper countries has always fascinated me, and surprised me with how difficult it is.
- whatshisface 6y ago>As an initial experiment, we will fund about 5 companies. This is the most telling line in the whole thing. Why? Well, for n=5 to be a useful experiment, the success rate would have to be... way higher than 1 in 100 or even 1 in 10! They're practically asking for people who want to open fast food franchise locations.
- simonebrunozzi 6y agoOr maybe they use these 5 to experiment and iterate on the program, and then fund another 15-20 in 6 months from now, and by then they'll have a nice batch of 20-25 companies, hoping that one of these will become a decacorn or more.
- alextheparrot 6y agoThis assumes each bet has a binary goal state [Success, Not Success] when probing endeavours often are more about manifold mapping rather than optimal sub-topology mining.
- divbzero 6y ago> WHAT IS A MOONSHOT COMPANY? > A company 1) focused on a significant technological development or complex coordination and 2) that could have a transformative impact on the world. > EXAMPLES: > Rapid response vaccines, non-carbon energy, solar geoengineering, VR/AR, biological manufacturing, new education formats, new medicines, affordable housing, and charter countries. What are some examples of current or past startups that could have qualified for Apollo?
- divbzero 6y agoSome examples that come to my mind: – Boom – Genentech – Pixar – SpaceX One challenge is that there’s an implicit third requirement for moonshots: 3) transformative potential must be recognizable at the start. Thus, a company that sells BASIC interpreters for the Altair might be missed.
- jecel 6y ago"BASIC interpreters for the Altair" doesn't sound impressive, but "a computer on every desk, Microsoft software in every computer" was Bill's actual pitch and is a bit better.
- echelon 6y agoHow far along with your company / MVP do you have to be? I imagine they want to see a compelling demo, not just a plan or idea. I'm still a little too early with my project to meet the July 11th deadline, and I'd feel ashamed to pitch too early. It's a very ambitious moonshot project, though. 20% for 3M sounds generous for some, but perhaps risky for those that are further along. What do comparable investment offerings look like?
- caidan 6y agoNo disrespect intended, but what is the point of using terminology like “moonshot” coupled with tiny amounts of funding like $3m. If moonshot is taken to be a loose reference to the Apollo program - which I imagine it is otherwise the name is poorly chosen - then the funding amounts are off by several orders of magnitude. In 1960 the US government got its feet wet with a 900 million (in 2020 dollars) spend on the Apollo program and ramped up to a high of 40,000 million a year by 1964. The total spent on the Apollo program between 1960 and 1973 was 283,000 million or almost one hundred thousand times as much as the 3 million investment under the moonshots fund. Sure the 3 million is a seed round but the US spent 300 times as much on its exploratory “seed” round in 1960. It is unlikely until he extreme that any real “moonshot” will achieve significant impact without the combined talents of a large percentage of the world greatest talents driven by goals of the highest social priority funded by limitless pockets and organized by the very best managers and leaders that society can produce. 3m will achieve none of that.
- d_silin 6y agoFor once, I disagree. When spent wisely, $3M can make a huge difference in a development of promising technology. And I am not talking just about software - an aerospace, material science, fusion or biotech startup can work with that.
- hanniabu 6y ago> can work with that I think the more apt wording is it's enough to get to the next round of funding
- d_silin 6y agoWell, true!
- godelski 6y agoCan confirm. Most government agencies have the SBIR program which funds 6 months of work for $100k. A phase II is $750k for 2 years. The Phase I is typically TRL 3/4 (though I've had a TRL 2 contract before). You'd be surprised what you can get done on such a small budget. Edit: This was an aerospace company too
- memexy 6y ago> Sam, Max, and Jack Altman (Max is going to run the program, and Sam and Jack will be available to advise the companies) Is there a list of advisors we can see as well?
- justin66 6y ago> A network of moonshot companies could be the modern-day version of the great research efforts of the past. It would be super interesting to know what led YC to abandon HARC, which actually had a membership comparable to the great research efforts of the past [1], in favor of doing things this way. I don't believe they have ever said much about that, it just seemed to vanish. [1] https://harc.ycr.org/member/ https://harc.ycr.org/member/
- thephyber 6y agoI want to see an incredibly accurate physics/chemistry simulator in distributed software. This is the same first step needed to support automated testing materials science at a massive scale, which will unlock innovations in battery energy density, photovoltaic energy capture efficiency, construction materials, manufacturing efficiencies, etc. AI/ML require some way to verify proposed designs, similar to OpenAI's Gym. A physics/chemistry simulator would save massive time by allowing software automation to allow software to run simulations in massive parallel. I see this as a "human genome" sized project that unlocks massive amounts of basic science.
- whatshisface 6y agoWhat's wrong with all of the simulators that already exist? There are books upon books written about this subject. (I'm not saying that there's nothing wrong with them, just asking what's missing between what already exists and what you want to see.)
- fuzzfactor 6y ago>What's wrong with all of the simulators that already exist? They're displacing the real thing. I like incredibly accurate physics/chemistry in reality. There's so much room for improvement in some fundamentals that would lead to more ideal simulations, seems like some of today's simulations are a bit premature.
- alextheparrot 6y agoUnsure if you are familiar with the project, but Folding@home [0] might be an approximate blueprint for this. Large scale physical simulations of protein structure dynamics, distributed all over. [0] https://foldingathome.org/ https://foldingathome.org/ Edit: Link to project
- thephyber 6y agoI've heard of it, among others. But they are inevitably very specialized applications of what I was hoping would be a general physics simulator (and more detailed at the molecular level than one of the modern game physics engines). I think it's interesting that humans can participate in the process of finding relevant solutions, but I think it's more important that any agent can be used to find and test solutions to specific physics/chemistry problems. My hope was to do for low-level physics what OpenAI does with video games -- using them as simulators for problems and to create competing agents to solve that problem.
- FiatLuxDave 6y agoTo all the voices in the thread who are commenting on how only $3m is no Apollo project: my fusion startup in the 1990s was financed with less than that (even including the inflation adjustment). Sure, we didn't make self-sustaining fusion, but it wasn't lack of money that stopped us. This level of funding may not give you an Apollo program, but it could easily give you a Robert Goddard. The section on "Why don't more people start them" was interesting to me. One hugely important thing I don't see mentioned as a possible cause is the failure path (i.e. what happens when you fail, which is the most likely outcome). This is drastically different in 'moonshot' fields than in software startups. In many fields, a failed startup causes permanent career damage, so that's a big reason why people don't start them. Because of this, I think the founder equity exchange program is a great idea. I would have happily diversified 10% of my stock with other founders, and it would not have de-incentivized us at all.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- missedthecue 6y ago"Sure, we didn't make self-sustaining fusion, but it wasn't lack of money that stopped us. " What was it?
- heyoo 6y agoGuessing a lack of good results :)
- aaron695 6y agoEXAMPLES: > Rapid response vaccines, non-carbon energy, solar geoengineering, VR/AR, biological manufacturing, new education formats, new medicines, affordable housing, and charter countries. I think none of these are moonshots except "new education formats" I think this is a problem. Moonshot doesn't have to be, we wish this existed. It should be, this field hasn't had much work and no one has gone down this path, it's about exploring a new world. VR/AR are done to death for instance and will continue to be done. Someone will just loophole this with a interesting X (that's done to death) and add the word VR to make it sound like a moonshot. Moonshoot idea - setup a framework that allows people to accurately identify moonshots.
- capableweb 6y agoBased on the name and it not being mentioned at all, I guess this is US only? In general, websites seems to always mention the countries where you can apply from, except US websites that simply assumes everyone is in the US or otherwise knows it's restricted to the US.