5 ms·

Nlp is getting better at a rapid rate. Articles like this are worthless click bait. No one knows what ml will look like in ten years. And for the record, ten ye

Nlp is getting better at a rapid rate. Articles like this are worthless click bait. No one knows what ml will look like in ten years. And for the record, ten years is a short period of time for a technology that could have such a massive impact.

distant_hat 6y ago
People don't understand what exponential improvement means. GPT-3 is a 175B with B parameter model. Another few rounds of doubling and we could be seeing models spit out short stories and novellas.
- ur-whale 6y ago
  Yet, the darn thing still can't reason.
  - Enginerrrd 6y ago
    To be fair, it wasn't trained to. To be really fair, I think you need to more precisely define what you mean by "reason". It absolutely CAN reason by some measures.
  - jbay808 6y ago
    Five years ago we would have said "the darn thing still can't write a cohesive paragraph".
    - wnoise 6y ago
      That's still true. It can write a paragraph that's usually grammatical, and can stay on topic, but it's missing things like facts, or even the ability to remember which side of an argument it's taken previously.
      - jbay808 6y ago
        I think over the course of several paragraphs that's true, but within one it tends to be pretty good.
    - distant_hat 6y ago
      People look at the present and feel like that's all that's there. You don't look at a 2-year old and say he barely makes any intelligible sounds yet.
  - visarga 6y ago
    They "can't reason" but they can solve symbolic integration and differential equations (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06462.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06462.pdf), beat us at all board games, and more recently get to be almost impossible to tell apart from human writing (GPT3).
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- derivativethrow 6y ago
  Have you read the GPT-3 paper? The authors are pretty forthright about how the GPT techniques likely won't scale much beyond 175B parameters.
stoddur 6y ago
I think it's also a matter of expectation. People expecting conscious thinking machines with reasoning abilities are going to be disappointed but that doesn't mean AI as a field is useless and a big hoax. There are plenty of narrow problems where we can benefit from the use of AI. I am an MD and I see a lot of use cases of AI based technology in the future within the medical field though it needs more co-work between AI researchers and medical researchers. Good quality scientific validation of these systems needs to take place and that will take some time.

distant_hat 6y ago

People don't understand what exponential improvement means. GPT-3 is a 175B with B parameter model. Another few rounds of doubling and we could be seeing models spit out short stories and novellas.

ur-whale 6y ago
Yet, the darn thing still can't reason.
- Enginerrrd 6y ago
  To be fair, it wasn't trained to. To be really fair, I think you need to more precisely define what you mean by "reason". It absolutely CAN reason by some measures.
- jbay808 6y ago
  Five years ago we would have said "the darn thing still can't write a cohesive paragraph".
  - wnoise 6y ago
    That's still true. It can write a paragraph that's usually grammatical, and can stay on topic, but it's missing things like facts, or even the ability to remember which side of an argument it's taken previously.
    - jbay808 6y ago
      I think over the course of several paragraphs that's true, but within one it tends to be pretty good.
  - distant_hat 6y ago
    People look at the present and feel like that's all that's there. You don't look at a 2-year old and say he barely makes any intelligible sounds yet.
- visarga 6y ago
  They "can't reason" but they can solve symbolic integration and differential equations (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06462.pdf https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.06462.pdf), beat us at all board games, and more recently get to be almost impossible to tell apart from human writing (GPT3).
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
derivativethrow 6y ago
Have you read the GPT-3 paper? The authors are pretty forthright about how the GPT techniques likely won't scale much beyond 175B parameters.

stoddur 6y ago

I think it's also a matter of expectation. People expecting conscious thinking machines with reasoning abilities are going to be disappointed but that doesn't mean AI as a field is useless and a big hoax. There are plenty of narrow problems where we can benefit from the use of AI. I am an MD and I see a lot of use cases of AI based technology in the future within the medical field though it needs more co-work between AI researchers and medical researchers. Good quality scientific validation of these systems needs to take place and that will take some time.