3 ms·

A lot of places in the US are basically implementing the Sweden model already, but accidentally rather than intentionally. Which I think is a big mistake.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I don't think it's an accident. Most officials in the US have been pretty clear about what the plan is: we're going to make sure hospitals aren't overloaded, we're going to invest a lot of money in treatments and vaccines and contact tracing, and we're going to open up as much as possible while waiting for a vaccine or effective treatment. You can argue that we should have committed to eliminating the virus before going back to normal, but American officials were never really considering that as an option.
ashtonkem 6y ago
This is one of those scenarios where splitting the difference between two different systems is markedly worse than having picked one and gone with it. In our case, we've managed to both melt down the economy and fail to contain the virus, which isn't good at all.
- Spartan-S63 6y ago
  The patchwork shutdowns should have been used to buy time to scale up testing, improve contact tracing, acquire as much PPE as possible, and equip hospitals as best as possible to handle excess demand. The reality is that the shutdowns were used to enforce social distancing (because apparently Americans can't understand how critical it is to prevent the spread) and display the appearance of testing and contact tracing. What we ended up with was the illusion of a "win" when really we're just waiting to lose a second time and in a more dire way. I'm not sure the country will stomach another shutdown with a second wave, so I'm thinking that we'll just let the virus burn through and incur the high human cost it comes with.
  - ashtonkem 6y ago
    I’ve said this before; any permanent social change caused by the virus alone (protests over police brutality did not enter my predictions) will come into existence due to any second waves that might occur. I think the snap back from “we’re reopening America” to mass casualties will be strong and sudden. Now I can’t even begin to predict what that snap back will look like. A permanent growth of remote work seems plausible, but I’m sure there will be unexpected secondary and tertiary outcomes.
    - noobaccount 6y ago
      Has a snap back happened anywhere else in the world? While the unknown is scary, in this case it seems like we can look to our neighbors at home and abroad for comfort.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - ashtonkem 6y ago
        I don’t know, but I’m not heavily connected to any other culture to speak to that. It could be happening right now and I would miss it.
- s1artibartfast 6y ago
  I’m not sure there is a difference between the two lockdown approaches. On one hand, Sweden’s economy is no better off than the rest of Europe. On the other hand, US deaths are on an exponential decline, similar to Europe, albeit slower. I think the meaningful difference is that European countries had more more extensive and effective programs to keep workers on payroll. If you want to point a finger at a US fuckup, look at chronic job insecurity and pushing unemployment insurance over employee retention. For example, 40-50 percent of workers in France, New Zealand and Switzerland received payroll retention benefits.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

I don't think it's an accident. Most officials in the US have been pretty clear about what the plan is: we're going to make sure hospitals aren't overloaded, we're going to invest a lot of money in treatments and vaccines and contact tracing, and we're going to open up as much as possible while waiting for a vaccine or effective treatment. You can argue that we should have committed to eliminating the virus before going back to normal, but American officials were never really considering that as an option.

ashtonkem 6y ago

This is one of those scenarios where splitting the difference between two different systems is markedly worse than having picked one and gone with it. In our case, we've managed to both melt down the economy and fail to contain the virus, which isn't good at all.

Spartan-S63 6y ago
The patchwork shutdowns should have been used to buy time to scale up testing, improve contact tracing, acquire as much PPE as possible, and equip hospitals as best as possible to handle excess demand. The reality is that the shutdowns were used to enforce social distancing (because apparently Americans can't understand how critical it is to prevent the spread) and display the appearance of testing and contact tracing. What we ended up with was the illusion of a "win" when really we're just waiting to lose a second time and in a more dire way. I'm not sure the country will stomach another shutdown with a second wave, so I'm thinking that we'll just let the virus burn through and incur the high human cost it comes with.
- ashtonkem 6y ago
  I’ve said this before; any permanent social change caused by the virus alone (protests over police brutality did not enter my predictions) will come into existence due to any second waves that might occur. I think the snap back from “we’re reopening America” to mass casualties will be strong and sudden. Now I can’t even begin to predict what that snap back will look like. A permanent growth of remote work seems plausible, but I’m sure there will be unexpected secondary and tertiary outcomes.
  - noobaccount 6y ago
    Has a snap back happened anywhere else in the world? While the unknown is scary, in this case it seems like we can look to our neighbors at home and abroad for comfort.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - ashtonkem 6y ago
      I don’t know, but I’m not heavily connected to any other culture to speak to that. It could be happening right now and I would miss it.
s1artibartfast 6y ago
I’m not sure there is a difference between the two lockdown approaches. On one hand, Sweden’s economy is no better off than the rest of Europe. On the other hand, US deaths are on an exponential decline, similar to Europe, albeit slower. I think the meaningful difference is that European countries had more more extensive and effective programs to keep workers on payroll. If you want to point a finger at a US fuckup, look at chronic job insecurity and pushing unemployment insurance over employee retention. For example, 40-50 percent of workers in France, New Zealand and Switzerland received payroll retention benefits.