4 ms·

Honestly I think this was inevitable despite any politics. It's been over 2 months now since the lockdowns began and and a lot of people who were told 'flatten

Honestly I think this was inevitable despite any politics. It's been over 2 months now since the lockdowns began and and a lot of people who were told 'flatten the curve' are asking when the curve will be flat enough. > Mission accomplished only works when there is a vaccine, which is at least a year away. A year with little if any time spent with family and friends? A year where a trip to the market means putting on your virus armor? A year where our kids get little education, little outdoor play, little social contact? There's obviously concern about the economic damage of the lockdown, but with some justification there's also a mental health concern. What is the risk of covid vs. the risk of 'normalizing' isolation? When we all get out - can we pick up where we left off? I'm starting to wonder when I just give up. My spouse is a virologist so we are a lot more stringent than most - but I see the neighborhood kids out playing basketball everyday and I can't fail to notice that they are all doing fine. Maybe they are going to prove to be the smart ones.

JPKab 6y ago
"Maybe they are going to prove to be the smart ones." I'm glad you have the humility about potentially being wrong that the math-illiterate journalists don't. Instead, they have doubled down on their initial freakout. Most people, I think, treat this like poker. You get a few new data points, and you shift your chips to locking down. You get more data points, you start taking them out. Reasonable. The journalist crowd, and some of my relatives, went all in on the lockdown. They could either look at the new data, and chill out and admit they overreacted for 2 months, OR they can just try to shame me for not wearing a mask when I'm riding my bike on a trail in a massive, empty wildlife refuge.
- doorstar 6y ago
  Unfortunately the scientists are still pretty pro-lockdown too. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-e... In my own home I think the difference is becoming stark ( and hopefully doesn't come to a head ). My spouse has worked with deadly viruses and sees risk risk risk. I'm the engineer, I'm the pragmatists, I look backwards and extrapolate from what has already happened. What are the chances of getting the virus during a barbecue with friends vs. the chances of dying in a car crash during the drive over? Can I believe that the virus "might" spread on surfaces without seeing a lot more cases than I'd expect? Healthy living doesn't just boil down to "not infected".
- rabidrat 6y ago
  I also view the initial "overreaction" as a kind of bootcamp for virus lockdown. Know what you need, how it works, what you'll be allowed to do, etc, so that when a local area needs to lockdown again, we'll be set up for it (emotionally and logistically). It may not have been strictly necessary for everyone for these two months, but it was nice to be largely in sync with the world for a short time.
fred_is_fred 6y ago
I'm curious where you live because my kids and everyone around is effectively plays outdoors all day. Going on bike rides, walks, scootering, playing in the woods, these are all excellent choices right now. Perhaps you meant organized sport play?
- doorstar 6y ago
  Out in the sunny south, but 'outdoors' is still seen as a risk in my circles. Outdoors has a probability of getting within 6 ft of someone not wearing a mask. Plus with 2 jobs and young kids there is only so much that can be done without supervision.
  - fred_is_fred 6y ago
    True on the probability, but outdoors appears to be huge risk mitigator and is important enough to my own health and sanity that I will risk it regardless.
    - doorstar 6y ago
      I feel the same way honesty, but all things are a negotiation and "What if someone dies" is hard to come back to.
      - Recurecur 6y ago
        '"What if someone dies" is hard to come back to.' Not really, my response would be "Do you drive on the freeway?". People are generally terrible at assessing risk.
        fred_is_fred 6y ago
        I know if I never went outside I'd eventually jump onto a freeway so the math is simple for me.
  - Recurecur 6y ago
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I’ve been trying to tell people this for months, and I just wish I could have found a better way to get the message across. A plan which relies on reforging all human interactions into a more convenient shape isn’t a plan at all; it’s a pipe dream, a hope that if you hide for a bit the problem will just disappear. (Although it did disappear in some countries, so I’m sympathetic.)
- doorstar 6y ago
  I don't know what other people are experiencing, but I've saw an initial enthusiasm for Zoom happy hours and family diners and play dates that gradually faded. Socialization is easy when you see people at work or schools or clubs. A casual "Hey do you want to come over this weekend?" can be throw out without a lot of pressure on either side. Socialization is hard when you have to put yourself out there blindly, send invitations, and risk rejection. Most people aren't good at it and I think a lot of those people are settling into a life where it's so easy to sit on the couch and watch Netflix that nothing else seems worth the effort.
Recurecur 6y ago
Here's the thing: a common sense approach to this could have avoided 90% of the economic misery. The key would have been to allow everyone 60 and under to continue normally unless they have other risk factors. The consequences of a case for most in that age group aren't too bad, less than flu for most. Older folk and those at risk could isolate and take other precautions. No economic shutdown, no 40 million unemployed, no $6 trillion spent, far fewer bankrupt businesses, and vastly fewer long-term consequences. I hope we learn from this, it was an EXPENSIVE lesson. 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing.
- doorstar 6y ago
  I feel like I'm missing something when it still seems like huge number of Covid cases are from nursing homes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronaviru... Add in military cases, add in cases that have occurred on cruise ships or other places where people can't leave... What really is the number of cases from 'ordinary' people going on with their 'ordinary' lives? It seems to me that clarification on that point has been missing from the overall discussion.
  - Recurecur 6y ago
    "I feel like I'm missing something when it still seems like huge number of Covid cases are from nursing homes." There's been terrible mismanagement of this in nursing homes in a couple of states in particular. That was completely avoidable. In most states, nursing homes have done well. The military and prisons have accounted for some cases, but not all that many. There's been plenty of community spread in some places. Since there's (apparently) no treatment and no vaccine, herd immunity is the only workable outcome. We've flattened the curve, let's continue to take reasonable, easy precautions and ride this thing out.

JPKab 6y ago

"Maybe they are going to prove to be the smart ones." I'm glad you have the humility about potentially being wrong that the math-illiterate journalists don't. Instead, they have doubled down on their initial freakout. Most people, I think, treat this like poker. You get a few new data points, and you shift your chips to locking down. You get more data points, you start taking them out. Reasonable. The journalist crowd, and some of my relatives, went all in on the lockdown. They could either look at the new data, and chill out and admit they overreacted for 2 months, OR they can just try to shame me for not wearing a mask when I'm riding my bike on a trail in a massive, empty wildlife refuge.

doorstar 6y ago
Unfortunately the scientists are still pretty pro-lockdown too. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-e... In my own home I think the difference is becoming stark ( and hopefully doesn't come to a head ). My spouse has worked with deadly viruses and sees risk risk risk. I'm the engineer, I'm the pragmatists, I look backwards and extrapolate from what has already happened. What are the chances of getting the virus during a barbecue with friends vs. the chances of dying in a car crash during the drive over? Can I believe that the virus "might" spread on surfaces without seeing a lot more cases than I'd expect? Healthy living doesn't just boil down to "not infected".
rabidrat 6y ago
I also view the initial "overreaction" as a kind of bootcamp for virus lockdown. Know what you need, how it works, what you'll be allowed to do, etc, so that when a local area needs to lockdown again, we'll be set up for it (emotionally and logistically). It may not have been strictly necessary for everyone for these two months, but it was nice to be largely in sync with the world for a short time.

fred_is_fred 6y ago

I'm curious where you live because my kids and everyone around is effectively plays outdoors all day. Going on bike rides, walks, scootering, playing in the woods, these are all excellent choices right now. Perhaps you meant organized sport play?

doorstar 6y ago
Out in the sunny south, but 'outdoors' is still seen as a risk in my circles. Outdoors has a probability of getting within 6 ft of someone not wearing a mask. Plus with 2 jobs and young kids there is only so much that can be done without supervision.
- fred_is_fred 6y ago
  True on the probability, but outdoors appears to be huge risk mitigator and is important enough to my own health and sanity that I will risk it regardless.
  - doorstar 6y ago
    I feel the same way honesty, but all things are a negotiation and "What if someone dies" is hard to come back to.
    - Recurecur 6y ago
      '"What if someone dies" is hard to come back to.' Not really, my response would be "Do you drive on the freeway?". People are generally terrible at assessing risk.
      - fred_is_fred 6y ago
        I know if I never went outside I'd eventually jump onto a freeway so the math is simple for me.
- Recurecur 6y ago

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

I’ve been trying to tell people this for months, and I just wish I could have found a better way to get the message across. A plan which relies on reforging all human interactions into a more convenient shape isn’t a plan at all; it’s a pipe dream, a hope that if you hide for a bit the problem will just disappear. (Although it did disappear in some countries, so I’m sympathetic.)

doorstar 6y ago
I don't know what other people are experiencing, but I've saw an initial enthusiasm for Zoom happy hours and family diners and play dates that gradually faded. Socialization is easy when you see people at work or schools or clubs. A casual "Hey do you want to come over this weekend?" can be throw out without a lot of pressure on either side. Socialization is hard when you have to put yourself out there blindly, send invitations, and risk rejection. Most people aren't good at it and I think a lot of those people are settling into a life where it's so easy to sit on the couch and watch Netflix that nothing else seems worth the effort.

Recurecur 6y ago

Here's the thing: a common sense approach to this could have avoided 90% of the economic misery. The key would have been to allow everyone 60 and under to continue normally unless they have other risk factors. The consequences of a case for most in that age group aren't too bad, less than flu for most. Older folk and those at risk could isolate and take other precautions. No economic shutdown, no 40 million unemployed, no $6 trillion spent, far fewer bankrupt businesses, and vastly fewer long-term consequences. I hope we learn from this, it was an EXPENSIVE lesson. 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing.

doorstar 6y ago
I feel like I'm missing something when it still seems like huge number of Covid cases are from nursing homes. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronaviru... Add in military cases, add in cases that have occurred on cruise ships or other places where people can't leave... What really is the number of cases from 'ordinary' people going on with their 'ordinary' lives? It seems to me that clarification on that point has been missing from the overall discussion.
- Recurecur 6y ago
  "I feel like I'm missing something when it still seems like huge number of Covid cases are from nursing homes." There's been terrible mismanagement of this in nursing homes in a couple of states in particular. That was completely avoidable. In most states, nursing homes have done well. The military and prisons have accounted for some cases, but not all that many. There's been plenty of community spread in some places. Since there's (apparently) no treatment and no vaccine, herd immunity is the only workable outcome. We've flattened the curve, let's continue to take reasonable, easy precautions and ride this thing out.