7 ms·

We are only a couple years away from automating most customer servicing. You’ll still need a few, but if we collect data on the few it’s possible to scale those

We are only a couple years away from automating most customer servicing. You’ll still need a few, but if we collect data on the few it’s possible to scale those answers to millions. That’ll put millions out of work and is basically text generation... easy to deploy, easy to maintain, and we probably already have the technology just not productionized. Now, those people will be retrained to do something. Maybe even just do more detailed customer service. So I’m not too concerned - just saying automation is coming

ntsplnkv2 6y ago
> That’ll put millions out of work and is basically text generation... easy to deploy, easy to maintain, and we probably already have the technology just not productionized. Yea, but does it...you know, work? Why didn't the internet already eliminate most customer service? The common inquiries can easily be found solutions to online. if I'm calling support it's almost always because the resources available don't solve my problem. And spending 20 minutes on the phone with an automated system asking about billing is very frustrating.
- nine_k 6y ago
  It just has become a filter for people with serious enough problems. If you can spend 10-15 minutes navigating voice menus, waiting, and listening to canned messages, likely you need operator's help badly enough. Anyone with a petty problem would have hung up already. And the canned messages also eliminate some of the calls which seek some obvious information. You know, it used to be somehow hard, but not impossible, to reach an oracle in ancient times. Now the same is done on mass scale.
  - ntsplnkv2 6y ago
    So basically offload the cost to the consumer. Add up the wasted 10-15 minutes and on the whole it likely costs society more.
JumpCrisscross 6y ago
> We are only a couple years away from automating most customer servicing The paper rigorously questions such assertions of faith. It merits a thoughtful response. As Deming said, "in God we trust, all others must bring data."
adventured 6y ago
Also in the customer service segment, we continue to accelerate the move to wipe out fast food jobs. Four million people work in fast food restaurants in the US. I'll be surprised if around 1/4 to 1/3 of those jobs don't vanish this decade. That is part of the automation revolution and it is underway. Just the process of automating ordering at fast food restaurants as we already easily can, will remove several hundred thousand jobs permanently.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  Fast food automates tasks more than jobs. Which the link doesn't particularly seem to be analyzing. McDonalds eliminating ~1 near minimum wage job at every store isn't going to be reflected in wages of the remaining employees.
  - toast0 6y ago
    Wages are going up, so McDonalds is reducing the number of jobs. If you come inside to order, you have to fill your own drink; if you drive through, a robot does it. Stores have ordering kiosks and app based ordering so less staff needs to take orders. They've experimented with call center drive through processing before (it didn't work well at the time). It's harder to see, but they do lots of labor saving in the kitchen too.
    - dougmwne 6y ago
      The Founder was a nice movie about McDonald's founding. They have automation and labor-saving devices and processes cooked right into their early DNA. Recent efforts around automated ordering are just the last straw in a long line of efficiency optimizations.
- pragmatic 6y ago
  The sceptic in me wonders how much capital the fast food industry is willing to invest to replace cheap labor. I'm not really arguing with you just reflecting on my own experiences with current start of the art tech. "Did you say at fries to that?" No "Added 27 orders of fries, anything else" Arghhhh!
maxerickson 6y ago
Everything having an awful phone tree doesn't seem like we are a couple years away from automating customer service. What's happened is companies have restricted the customer service they offer (the phone operator can't do anything the customer can't do on the website). That's not automation getting closer, it's the service getting shittier. (seriously compare calling a hospital and talking immediately to an operator that connects you to the person you want to listening to 3 selection lists with the same virus warning at the beginning of the each one and then talking to an operator that connects you to the person you want...)
- darksaints 6y ago
  Agreed that phone trees are awful, but the exact same logic done in a chat form is surprisingly sane. We can easily skim past the bullshit with our eyes, and hone in on what we need quite quickly. In many cases I prefer it to the triage by humans, with their bad microphones and unfamiliar accents. It doesn't even need to be sophisticated logic, with heavy use of AI and conversational styles of communication. A simple "what are you looking for?" with some preset options is pretty great.
  - jjoonathan 6y ago
    I keep seeing praise for chatbots, but every single one I've interacted with has been exactly as useless as an IVR. Do you have an example of a useful chatbot?
    - ponker 6y ago
      Chatbots are only good when staffed with a competent backing crew, and only offered to the user when those agents are online. But most companies invest the minimum in the chatbot experience so it blows.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
tschwimmer 6y ago
I agree with you, but probably not for the same reason. I think Millennials are less comfortable talking with people and are willing to put up with less flexible and less powerful automated solutions where their parents would not. Expect customer service to get even worse with automation, not better.
- yurishimo 6y ago
  I disagree with this being a millennial problem, but it's rather a Gen Z issue. I'm approaching 26 and still vastly prefer talking to people to solve my issues. Perhaps this is because I work in software and am aware of the massive pile of crap most phone trees are so there is some bias here. My go to solution to get a person on the phone is whenever a machine asks me "What can I help you with?", I purposefully mumble and make weird noises that it cannot understand. 2-3 repeats and it gives up and automatically passes me to an operator or CSR. I assume this is to better help the elderly or disabled but it sure is useful if you know it exists.

ntsplnkv2 6y ago

> That’ll put millions out of work and is basically text generation... easy to deploy, easy to maintain, and we probably already have the technology just not productionized. Yea, but does it...you know, work? Why didn't the internet already eliminate most customer service? The common inquiries can easily be found solutions to online. if I'm calling support it's almost always because the resources available don't solve my problem. And spending 20 minutes on the phone with an automated system asking about billing is very frustrating.

nine_k 6y ago
It just has become a filter for people with serious enough problems. If you can spend 10-15 minutes navigating voice menus, waiting, and listening to canned messages, likely you need operator's help badly enough. Anyone with a petty problem would have hung up already. And the canned messages also eliminate some of the calls which seek some obvious information. You know, it used to be somehow hard, but not impossible, to reach an oracle in ancient times. Now the same is done on mass scale.
- ntsplnkv2 6y ago
  So basically offload the cost to the consumer. Add up the wasted 10-15 minutes and on the whole it likely costs society more.

JumpCrisscross 6y ago

> We are only a couple years away from automating most customer servicing The paper rigorously questions such assertions of faith. It merits a thoughtful response. As Deming said, "in God we trust, all others must bring data."

adventured 6y ago

Also in the customer service segment, we continue to accelerate the move to wipe out fast food jobs. Four million people work in fast food restaurants in the US. I'll be surprised if around 1/4 to 1/3 of those jobs don't vanish this decade. That is part of the automation revolution and it is underway. Just the process of automating ordering at fast food restaurants as we already easily can, will remove several hundred thousand jobs permanently.

maxerickson 6y ago
Fast food automates tasks more than jobs. Which the link doesn't particularly seem to be analyzing. McDonalds eliminating ~1 near minimum wage job at every store isn't going to be reflected in wages of the remaining employees.
- toast0 6y ago
  Wages are going up, so McDonalds is reducing the number of jobs. If you come inside to order, you have to fill your own drink; if you drive through, a robot does it. Stores have ordering kiosks and app based ordering so less staff needs to take orders. They've experimented with call center drive through processing before (it didn't work well at the time). It's harder to see, but they do lots of labor saving in the kitchen too.
  - dougmwne 6y ago
    The Founder was a nice movie about McDonald's founding. They have automation and labor-saving devices and processes cooked right into their early DNA. Recent efforts around automated ordering are just the last straw in a long line of efficiency optimizations.
pragmatic 6y ago
The sceptic in me wonders how much capital the fast food industry is willing to invest to replace cheap labor. I'm not really arguing with you just reflecting on my own experiences with current start of the art tech. "Did you say at fries to that?" No "Added 27 orders of fries, anything else" Arghhhh!

maxerickson 6y ago

Everything having an awful phone tree doesn't seem like we are a couple years away from automating customer service. What's happened is companies have restricted the customer service they offer (the phone operator can't do anything the customer can't do on the website). That's not automation getting closer, it's the service getting shittier. (seriously compare calling a hospital and talking immediately to an operator that connects you to the person you want to listening to 3 selection lists with the same virus warning at the beginning of the each one and then talking to an operator that connects you to the person you want...)

darksaints 6y ago
Agreed that phone trees are awful, but the exact same logic done in a chat form is surprisingly sane. We can easily skim past the bullshit with our eyes, and hone in on what we need quite quickly. In many cases I prefer it to the triage by humans, with their bad microphones and unfamiliar accents. It doesn't even need to be sophisticated logic, with heavy use of AI and conversational styles of communication. A simple "what are you looking for?" with some preset options is pretty great.
- jjoonathan 6y ago
  I keep seeing praise for chatbots, but every single one I've interacted with has been exactly as useless as an IVR. Do you have an example of a useful chatbot?
  - ponker 6y ago
    Chatbots are only good when staffed with a competent backing crew, and only offered to the user when those agents are online. But most companies invest the minimum in the chatbot experience so it blows.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]

tschwimmer 6y ago

I agree with you, but probably not for the same reason. I think Millennials are less comfortable talking with people and are willing to put up with less flexible and less powerful automated solutions where their parents would not. Expect customer service to get even worse with automation, not better.

yurishimo 6y ago
I disagree with this being a millennial problem, but it's rather a Gen Z issue. I'm approaching 26 and still vastly prefer talking to people to solve my issues. Perhaps this is because I work in software and am aware of the massive pile of crap most phone trees are so there is some bias here. My go to solution to get a person on the phone is whenever a machine asks me "What can I help you with?", I purposefully mumble and make weird noises that it cannot understand. 2-3 repeats and it gives up and automatically passes me to an operator or CSR. I assume this is to better help the elderly or disabled but it sure is useful if you know it exists.