4 ms·

Recalibrate your assessment with the 14-21 day incubation rate factored in and with a critical eye on states like Florida, who are actively trying to minimize r

by n9 6y ago

Recalibrate your assessment with the 14-21 day incubation rate factored in and with a critical eye on states like Florida, who are actively trying to minimize reported cases/deaths.

Trasmatta 6y ago
Source on Florida trying to actively minimize cases / deaths? Also, I thought the incubation period was more like 3-14 days, not 14-21?
- n9 6y ago
  Florida has restricted test availability until mid May, had fired a data scientist who contends they are juking their numbers and has been (along with several other states) not counting deaths of people with covid symptoms as covid if the patients were not tested while living. 21 days indicates the incubation period plus adequate time for an infected person to become ill enough to seek testing or treatment. Cutting the number at 14 is a way to minimize assessment of impact.
- matwood 6y ago
  There has been a lot of confusion if FL does/will list deaths from 'snowbirds'. IMO, this highlights the weakness of poor federal oversight and leadership in the pandemic. https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/11/floridas-count-of-coronavirus-deaths-is-missing-some-cases/ https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/11/floridas-cou...
  - caseysoftware 6y ago
    According to CDC policy, a person's state of residence is where their death should be reported. That mitigates the likelihood of double counting, etc. Unfortunately, that does create a delay but that's neither a new nor deceptive practice.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- javagram 6y ago
  Time from infection to symptoms is 1-15 days. Then add the time that you’re in the hospital trying to be saved before you die. “ Yang et al. (4) reported that the median time from symptom onset to radiological confirmation of pneumonia was 5 days (interquartile range [IQR] 3–7 days); from symptom onset to intensive care unit (ICU) admission was 11 days (IQR 7–14 days); and from ICU admission to death was 7 days (IQR 3–11 days). Therefore, a median of 13 days passed from pneumonia confirmation to death ([11–5] + 7 = 13).” ( https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article )
- dehrmann 6y ago
  Median incubation period is 5 days.[1] I'm a little frustrated with public health officials who say we need to wait 14 days between lockdown steps because of the incubation period. 14 days is for quarantine, but you'll have the data you need by 10 days (assuming a lag between the onset of symptoms and testing) at the latest. 1: https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/...

by n9 6y ago

Recalibrate your assessment with the 14-21 day incubation rate factored in and with a critical eye on states like Florida, who are actively trying to minimize reported cases/deaths.

Trasmatta 6y ago

Source on Florida trying to actively minimize cases / deaths? Also, I thought the incubation period was more like 3-14 days, not 14-21?

n9 6y ago
Florida has restricted test availability until mid May, had fired a data scientist who contends they are juking their numbers and has been (along with several other states) not counting deaths of people with covid symptoms as covid if the patients were not tested while living. 21 days indicates the incubation period plus adequate time for an infected person to become ill enough to seek testing or treatment. Cutting the number at 14 is a way to minimize assessment of impact.
matwood 6y ago
There has been a lot of confusion if FL does/will list deaths from 'snowbirds'. IMO, this highlights the weakness of poor federal oversight and leadership in the pandemic. https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/11/floridas-count-of-coronavirus-deaths-is-missing-some-cases/ https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/11/floridas-cou...
- caseysoftware 6y ago
  According to CDC policy, a person's state of residence is where their death should be reported. That mitigates the likelihood of double counting, etc. Unfortunately, that does create a delay but that's neither a new nor deceptive practice.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
javagram 6y ago
Time from infection to symptoms is 1-15 days. Then add the time that you’re in the hospital trying to be saved before you die. “ Yang et al. (4) reported that the median time from symptom onset to radiological confirmation of pneumonia was 5 days (interquartile range [IQR] 3–7 days); from symptom onset to intensive care unit (ICU) admission was 11 days (IQR 7–14 days); and from ICU admission to death was 7 days (IQR 3–11 days). Therefore, a median of 13 days passed from pneumonia confirmation to death ([11–5] + 7 = 13).” ( https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article )
dehrmann 6y ago
Median incubation period is 5 days.[1] I'm a little frustrated with public health officials who say we need to wait 14 days between lockdown steps because of the incubation period. 14 days is for quarantine, but you'll have the data you need by 10 days (assuming a lag between the onset of symptoms and testing) at the latest. 1: https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/11/15/18/the-incubation-period-of-coronavirus-disease https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/...