5 ms·

>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America

>Because, in a very different way than the old Soviet system, the Chinese system—the more authoritarian it gets—is over time more prone to crack up than America’s. I don't understand: what does the author think the difference is? I may have read the article without enough attention but I didn't get it. If anything, I got the idea it's less likely to crack.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
The intuition is that freer political systems are both more challenging and less rewarding to subvert, because no individual person or group has overwhelming power.
- riffraff 6y ago
  I get the difference with the US, but isn't this the same that was true for the Soviets?
rudolph9 6y ago
Provided the article wasn’t exactly clear and I have no way of knowing exactly what the author meant; I think things like civil unrest can be thought of as a “crack”, the US 1st amendment almost encourages small cracks and they quickly get filled in and we move forward with things slightly adjusted (for better or worse). Although in many regards the process is still flawed, the ability for the us to peacefully transfer power at all levels of government every is really quite remarkable! Where as China being authoritarian any civil unrest has a much higher likelihood of overthrowing the government in a violent and expensive way. Transitions of power happen infrequently and are very dangerous particularly at the highest level given how synchronized authoritarian governments tend to require. Everything in life has trade offs. And while the Chinese have accomplished things the US hasn’t; imperfections in government are inevitable and the US is arguably more resilient to these imperfections over extended periods of time given the US ability to effectively and efficiently accommodate changes to address these imperfections.
- riffraff 6y ago
  But how is china's situation different from the Soviet experience?
  - asjw 6y ago
    In many ways. For example being part of WTO and being a capitalistic state which mass produce goods and services for the whole World
  - akimball 6y ago
    The first, most obvious, difference is the relative competence of economic planning.
caseysoftware 6y ago
I don't think China is going anywhere for at least a generation. If you dig into the collapse of most countries/empires/super powers, they collapse from either: - External pressures - foreign influence through military/conquering, investment, or mass immigration. With the exception of Taiwan, China has been effective in reducing or at least controlling all of those. And even that may be cracking where you see groups like WHO refusing to even say the word "Taiwan." With the US and Russia tied up with other things, military is less likely an issue to. - Internal pressures - social strife due to mass deprivation (starvation, poverty in general) or mass immigration/tribalism. Once again, China has been effective here. They've raised the standard of living and disappeared most of the major dissenters. They've even reduced tribalism by isolating and disappearing huge minorities. Good? Absolutely not. Effective? Unfortunately. Even the "One Child" policy seems to have led to less strife than predicted. While there are some places that have 140 men for every 100 women, those are the official numbers. It appears that under the policy, huge swathes of people just didn't report daughters being born. There's a generation of women who simply don't exist. Based on the investment strategy (both nationally and corporately), China has gone all in on Africa for years. If I had to place a bet, they may effectively run/own Africa in a decade or two. If not in person, on paper.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  China has a pretty large mass immigration problem. Over 30% of the nation's workforce are migrant workers who are by law second-class citizens in the urban areas they migrate to, and this number is expected to significantly rise. It's my understanding that some smaller cities are making it easier to register your hukou there, but it remains a serious issue in all of the biggest and richest cities.
- walterbell 6y ago
  > It appears that under the policy, huge swathes of people just didn't report daughters being born. There's a generation of women who simply don't exist. How do they work/travel/pay without ID?
  - asjw 6y ago

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

The intuition is that freer political systems are both more challenging and less rewarding to subvert, because no individual person or group has overwhelming power.

riffraff 6y ago
I get the difference with the US, but isn't this the same that was true for the Soviets?

rudolph9 6y ago

Provided the article wasn’t exactly clear and I have no way of knowing exactly what the author meant; I think things like civil unrest can be thought of as a “crack”, the US 1st amendment almost encourages small cracks and they quickly get filled in and we move forward with things slightly adjusted (for better or worse). Although in many regards the process is still flawed, the ability for the us to peacefully transfer power at all levels of government every is really quite remarkable! Where as China being authoritarian any civil unrest has a much higher likelihood of overthrowing the government in a violent and expensive way. Transitions of power happen infrequently and are very dangerous particularly at the highest level given how synchronized authoritarian governments tend to require. Everything in life has trade offs. And while the Chinese have accomplished things the US hasn’t; imperfections in government are inevitable and the US is arguably more resilient to these imperfections over extended periods of time given the US ability to effectively and efficiently accommodate changes to address these imperfections.

riffraff 6y ago
But how is china's situation different from the Soviet experience?
- asjw 6y ago
  In many ways. For example being part of WTO and being a capitalistic state which mass produce goods and services for the whole World
- akimball 6y ago
  The first, most obvious, difference is the relative competence of economic planning.

caseysoftware 6y ago

I don't think China is going anywhere for at least a generation. If you dig into the collapse of most countries/empires/super powers, they collapse from either: - External pressures - foreign influence through military/conquering, investment, or mass immigration. With the exception of Taiwan, China has been effective in reducing or at least controlling all of those. And even that may be cracking where you see groups like WHO refusing to even say the word "Taiwan." With the US and Russia tied up with other things, military is less likely an issue to. - Internal pressures - social strife due to mass deprivation (starvation, poverty in general) or mass immigration/tribalism. Once again, China has been effective here. They've raised the standard of living and disappeared most of the major dissenters. They've even reduced tribalism by isolating and disappearing huge minorities. Good? Absolutely not. Effective? Unfortunately. Even the "One Child" policy seems to have led to less strife than predicted. While there are some places that have 140 men for every 100 women, those are the official numbers. It appears that under the policy, huge swathes of people just didn't report daughters being born. There's a generation of women who simply don't exist. Based on the investment strategy (both nationally and corporately), China has gone all in on Africa for years. If I had to place a bet, they may effectively run/own Africa in a decade or two. If not in person, on paper.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
China has a pretty large mass immigration problem. Over 30% of the nation's workforce are migrant workers who are by law second-class citizens in the urban areas they migrate to, and this number is expected to significantly rise. It's my understanding that some smaller cities are making it easier to register your hukou there, but it remains a serious issue in all of the biggest and richest cities.
walterbell 6y ago
> It appears that under the policy, huge swathes of people just didn't report daughters being born. There's a generation of women who simply don't exist. How do they work/travel/pay without ID?
- asjw 6y ago