5 ms·

Income Inequality (go UBI!) Climate Change (go Tesla?) Authoritarian Rule (go...Democracy?) Disease and Aging (go science!) Racism and Religion (go educ

Income Inequality (go UBI!) Climate Change (go Tesla?) Authoritarian Rule (go...Democracy?) Disease and Aging (go science!) Racism and Religion (go education!)

tenpies 6y ago
> Climate Change (go Tesla?) I am waiting for around the 2050s to see if/when the climate change movement goes against EVs in their current form. We're really just shifting all the polluting in time and place. Move it all to the front and back of the vehicle's lifespan, put a huge distance between the vehicle user and how the energy is produced, and we call it green because there's no smoke coming out of it. In practice the numbers seem to suggest the overall change in emissions is not better - at least not in the type of EVs that are popular now (e.g. Teslas). A much smaller vehicle, with much less batteries, perhaps.
- scythe 6y ago
  >the overall change in emissions is not better This is false. The emissions associated with producing an EV are on the order of 15 tonnes CO2 equivalent, vs. 10 tonnes CO2 equivalent for a fuel combustion vehicle (FCV): http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.pdf http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.p... Meanwhile the emissions associated with gasoline vary but are at least 0.25 kg per mile (EPA average 0.4 kg/mile): https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=ZyDocument&Client=EPA&Index=2011+Thru+2015&Docs=&Query=&Time=&EndTime=&SearchMethod=1&TocRestrict=n&Toc=&TocEntry=&QField=&QFieldYear=&QFieldMonth=&QFieldDay=&IntQFieldOp=0&ExtQFieldOp=0&XmlQuery=&File=D%3A%5Czyfiles%5CIndex%20Data%5C11thru15%5CTxt%5C00000011%5CP100JPPH.txt&User=ANONYMOUS&Password=anonymous&SortMethod=h%7C-&MaximumDocuments=1&FuzzyDegree=0&ImageQuality=r75g8/r75g8/x150y150g16/i425&Display=hpfr&DefSeekPage=x&SearchBack=ZyActionL&Back=ZyActionS&BackDesc=Results%20page&MaximumPages=1&ZyEntry=1&SeekPage=x&ZyPURL https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=Z... Over the lifetime of the car -- at least 100000 miles -- that's 25 tonnes at a bare minimum. But EVs last longer than FCVs, so we should increase the range to at least 200000 miles and 50 tonnes CO2 equivalent (or 80 for a typical car), where EVs start to pull away substantially. Furthermore, the emissions associated with EV producing depend in part on fuel-derived electricity used in manufacturing, which can be reduced dramatically by switching to nonfuel electricity production. Overall, EVs represent a massive decrease in pollution. However, the most important things to solve are the problems we haven't solved: principally grid-level electricity storage that permits a higher fraction of electricity production from renewable sources. EVs, wind turbines and photovoltaics by contrast are technologies that are already applied in practice.
  - reitzensteinm 6y ago
    I am very sceptical of the claim that EVs will have a higher lifetime than ICEs. The latter reach end of life in the Western world due to a lack of desirability, not because of the maintenance burden. A 20 year old EV will still smell bad, have gunk you can't clean all over the surfaces, not communicate with your phone etc. Maybe it will be true, but I don't think you should count your chickens just yet, certainly not by a factor of 2.
    - jccooper 6y ago
      People sell cars because they don't like them. But they crush cars because they become too expensive to fix. If your smelly 20 year old EV is still rolling someone will buy it for a couple hundred bucks and drive it until it fails. How the claims of superior maintainability for EVs vs ICs turns out, well, we'll see. There's an awful lot on an IC car that can go wrong that will send a well-used one to the junkyard, since repairs are so expensive. But there's also a lot that are kept on the road by driveway mechanics that have more time than money... and the EV future will be less friendly to that. I can do valve guides in my driveway, but I'm not replacing battery cells.
      - Ccecil 6y ago
        It just takes a new type of mechanic. I personally would have no complaints about swapping batteries, fixing electronics or upgrading/updating accessories but I also come from a different level of training. To me it appears as easy to remove an entire EV motor as it is to change a rear differential (electrical safeties aside). Mechanics for decades have been complaining that "you can't fix these new computerized cars" when mechanically they are very similar to what has been produced for half a century, sensors and electronics just allow you (when properly working) to set and adjust on the fly...making engines more efficient and smoother running. The "new mechanic" will be required to know most (if not all) of the same things as those of the past but will also be required to have an understanding of electronics repair and safety. I suspect due to things like microprocessor kits, robotics and such being more popular at a younger age that this will be a non issue. Sure...the current batch of mechanics may have issues but the next generation will (could?) consider it common knowledge. I am sure in history someone complained that these automobiles can't be fixed as easy as replacing a horse. That is the issue with new tech...if you only know old...it seems like black box magic.
- esotericn 6y ago
  It already has if you're looking in the right places. It's a bit like 'reduce, reuse, recycle'. Not having a car (possibly renting one occasionally, the inconvenience meaning that you use it less) is the best option. After that is probably a family using an EV (e.g. with >2 occupancy). After that is a single person using an EV to do loads of daft journeys (e.g. what sounds from over the pond like a typical 50+ mile daily round trip for work). I had an EV for a while and sold it because I realised that it's ultimately just an excuse, like smoking "light" cigarettes. It still relies on a piss-take infrastructure of sprawl everywhere. But we should definitely encourage them over ICE's.

Income Inequality (go UBI!) Climate Change (go Tesla?) Authoritarian Rule (go...Democracy?) Disease and Aging (go science!) Racism and Religion (go education!)

tenpies 6y ago

> Climate Change (go Tesla?) I am waiting for around the 2050s to see if/when the climate change movement goes against EVs in their current form. We're really just shifting all the polluting in time and place. Move it all to the front and back of the vehicle's lifespan, put a huge distance between the vehicle user and how the energy is produced, and we call it green because there's no smoke coming out of it. In practice the numbers seem to suggest the overall change in emissions is not better - at least not in the type of EVs that are popular now (e.g. Teslas). A much smaller vehicle, with much less batteries, perhaps.

scythe 6y ago
>the overall change in emissions is not better This is false. The emissions associated with producing an EV are on the order of 15 tonnes CO2 equivalent, vs. 10 tonnes CO2 equivalent for a fuel combustion vehicle (FCV): http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.pdf http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.p... Meanwhile the emissions associated with gasoline vary but are at least 0.25 kg per mile (EPA average 0.4 kg/mile): https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=ZyDocument&Client=EPA&Index=2011+Thru+2015&Docs=&Query=&Time=&EndTime=&SearchMethod=1&TocRestrict=n&Toc=&TocEntry=&QField=&QFieldYear=&QFieldMonth=&QFieldDay=&IntQFieldOp=0&ExtQFieldOp=0&XmlQuery=&File=D%3A%5Czyfiles%5CIndex%20Data%5C11thru15%5CTxt%5C00000011%5CP100JPPH.txt&User=ANONYMOUS&Password=anonymous&SortMethod=h%7C-&MaximumDocuments=1&FuzzyDegree=0&ImageQuality=r75g8/r75g8/x150y150g16/i425&Display=hpfr&DefSeekPage=x&SearchBack=ZyActionL&Back=ZyActionS&BackDesc=Results%20page&MaximumPages=1&ZyEntry=1&SeekPage=x&ZyPURL https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=Z... Over the lifetime of the car -- at least 100000 miles -- that's 25 tonnes at a bare minimum. But EVs last longer than FCVs, so we should increase the range to at least 200000 miles and 50 tonnes CO2 equivalent (or 80 for a typical car), where EVs start to pull away substantially. Furthermore, the emissions associated with EV producing depend in part on fuel-derived electricity used in manufacturing, which can be reduced dramatically by switching to nonfuel electricity production. Overall, EVs represent a massive decrease in pollution. However, the most important things to solve are the problems we haven't solved: principally grid-level electricity storage that permits a higher fraction of electricity production from renewable sources. EVs, wind turbines and photovoltaics by contrast are technologies that are already applied in practice.
- reitzensteinm 6y ago
  I am very sceptical of the claim that EVs will have a higher lifetime than ICEs. The latter reach end of life in the Western world due to a lack of desirability, not because of the maintenance burden. A 20 year old EV will still smell bad, have gunk you can't clean all over the surfaces, not communicate with your phone etc. Maybe it will be true, but I don't think you should count your chickens just yet, certainly not by a factor of 2.
  - jccooper 6y ago
    People sell cars because they don't like them. But they crush cars because they become too expensive to fix. If your smelly 20 year old EV is still rolling someone will buy it for a couple hundred bucks and drive it until it fails. How the claims of superior maintainability for EVs vs ICs turns out, well, we'll see. There's an awful lot on an IC car that can go wrong that will send a well-used one to the junkyard, since repairs are so expensive. But there's also a lot that are kept on the road by driveway mechanics that have more time than money... and the EV future will be less friendly to that. I can do valve guides in my driveway, but I'm not replacing battery cells.
    - Ccecil 6y ago
      It just takes a new type of mechanic. I personally would have no complaints about swapping batteries, fixing electronics or upgrading/updating accessories but I also come from a different level of training. To me it appears as easy to remove an entire EV motor as it is to change a rear differential (electrical safeties aside). Mechanics for decades have been complaining that "you can't fix these new computerized cars" when mechanically they are very similar to what has been produced for half a century, sensors and electronics just allow you (when properly working) to set and adjust on the fly...making engines more efficient and smoother running. The "new mechanic" will be required to know most (if not all) of the same things as those of the past but will also be required to have an understanding of electronics repair and safety. I suspect due to things like microprocessor kits, robotics and such being more popular at a younger age that this will be a non issue. Sure...the current batch of mechanics may have issues but the next generation will (could?) consider it common knowledge. I am sure in history someone complained that these automobiles can't be fixed as easy as replacing a horse. That is the issue with new tech...if you only know old...it seems like black box magic.
esotericn 6y ago
It already has if you're looking in the right places. It's a bit like 'reduce, reuse, recycle'. Not having a car (possibly renting one occasionally, the inconvenience meaning that you use it less) is the best option. After that is probably a family using an EV (e.g. with >2 occupancy). After that is a single person using an EV to do loads of daft journeys (e.g. what sounds from over the pond like a typical 50+ mile daily round trip for work). I had an EV for a while and sold it because I realised that it's ultimately just an excuse, like smoking "light" cigarettes. It still relies on a piss-take infrastructure of sprawl everywhere. But we should definitely encourage them over ICE's.