5 ms·

> We have a lot of hard problems to solve in the 21st century I've been on the hunt for an apolitical assessment of what humanity's greatest challenges are. An

by curo 6y ago

> We have a lot of hard problems to solve in the 21st century I've been on the hunt for an apolitical assessment of what humanity's greatest challenges are. Anyone know where this body of work might be? Copenhagen Consensus is an interesting one as a list of economists ranking cost-to-impact ratios. Something similar or adjacent? [1]: https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/ https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/

nicoburns 6y ago
> an apolitical assessment of what humanity's greatest challenges are No such thing exists. Such an assessment would be inherently political.
- curo 6y ago
  True, although I think we can all smell the difference between a work intended for discovery vs. one that begins from a preset position.
zhoujianfu 6y ago
Income Inequality (go UBI!) Climate Change (go Tesla?) Authoritarian Rule (go...Democracy?) Disease and Aging (go science!) Racism and Religion (go education!)
- tenpies 6y ago
  > Climate Change (go Tesla?) I am waiting for around the 2050s to see if/when the climate change movement goes against EVs in their current form. We're really just shifting all the polluting in time and place. Move it all to the front and back of the vehicle's lifespan, put a huge distance between the vehicle user and how the energy is produced, and we call it green because there's no smoke coming out of it. In practice the numbers seem to suggest the overall change in emissions is not better - at least not in the type of EVs that are popular now (e.g. Teslas). A much smaller vehicle, with much less batteries, perhaps.
  - scythe 6y ago
    >the overall change in emissions is not better This is false. The emissions associated with producing an EV are on the order of 15 tonnes CO2 equivalent, vs. 10 tonnes CO2 equivalent for a fuel combustion vehicle (FCV): http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.pdf http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.p... Meanwhile the emissions associated with gasoline vary but are at least 0.25 kg per mile (EPA average 0.4 kg/mile): https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=ZyDocument&Client=EPA&Index=2011+Thru+2015&Docs=&Query=&Time=&EndTime=&SearchMethod=1&TocRestrict=n&Toc=&TocEntry=&QField=&QFieldYear=&QFieldMonth=&QFieldDay=&IntQFieldOp=0&ExtQFieldOp=0&XmlQuery=&File=D%3A%5Czyfiles%5CIndex%20Data%5C11thru15%5CTxt%5C00000011%5CP100JPPH.txt&User=ANONYMOUS&Password=anonymous&SortMethod=h%7C-&MaximumDocuments=1&FuzzyDegree=0&ImageQuality=r75g8/r75g8/x150y150g16/i425&Display=hpfr&DefSeekPage=x&SearchBack=ZyActionL&Back=ZyActionS&BackDesc=Results%20page&MaximumPages=1&ZyEntry=1&SeekPage=x&ZyPURL https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=Z... Over the lifetime of the car -- at least 100000 miles -- that's 25 tonnes at a bare minimum. But EVs last longer than FCVs, so we should increase the range to at least 200000 miles and 50 tonnes CO2 equivalent (or 80 for a typical car), where EVs start to pull away substantially. Furthermore, the emissions associated with EV producing depend in part on fuel-derived electricity used in manufacturing, which can be reduced dramatically by switching to nonfuel electricity production. Overall, EVs represent a massive decrease in pollution. However, the most important things to solve are the problems we haven't solved: principally grid-level electricity storage that permits a higher fraction of electricity production from renewable sources. EVs, wind turbines and photovoltaics by contrast are technologies that are already applied in practice.
    - reitzensteinm 6y ago
      I am very sceptical of the claim that EVs will have a higher lifetime than ICEs. The latter reach end of life in the Western world due to a lack of desirability, not because of the maintenance burden. A 20 year old EV will still smell bad, have gunk you can't clean all over the surfaces, not communicate with your phone etc. Maybe it will be true, but I don't think you should count your chickens just yet, certainly not by a factor of 2.
rhn_mk1 6y ago
This seems to be the same area Effective Altruism is interested in. I recommend looking at 80000 hours as a starting point: https://80000hours.org/ https://80000hours.org/
- curo 6y ago
  Perfect, "Effective Altruism" is the keyword I'm looking for. I've heard of the 80000 people and will follow that thread. Thank you

by curo 6y ago

nicoburns 6y ago

> an apolitical assessment of what humanity's greatest challenges are No such thing exists. Such an assessment would be inherently political.

curo 6y ago
True, although I think we can all smell the difference between a work intended for discovery vs. one that begins from a preset position.

zhoujianfu 6y ago

Income Inequality (go UBI!) Climate Change (go Tesla?) Authoritarian Rule (go...Democracy?) Disease and Aging (go science!) Racism and Religion (go education!)

tenpies 6y ago
> Climate Change (go Tesla?) I am waiting for around the 2050s to see if/when the climate change movement goes against EVs in their current form. We're really just shifting all the polluting in time and place. Move it all to the front and back of the vehicle's lifespan, put a huge distance between the vehicle user and how the energy is produced, and we call it green because there's no smoke coming out of it. In practice the numbers seem to suggest the overall change in emissions is not better - at least not in the type of EVs that are popular now (e.g. Teslas). A much smaller vehicle, with much less batteries, perhaps.
- scythe 6y ago
  >the overall change in emissions is not better This is false. The emissions associated with producing an EV are on the order of 15 tonnes CO2 equivalent, vs. 10 tonnes CO2 equivalent for a fuel combustion vehicle (FCV): http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.pdf http://tasri.org/upLoad/down/month_1710/201710242243229582.p... Meanwhile the emissions associated with gasoline vary but are at least 0.25 kg per mile (EPA average 0.4 kg/mile): https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=ZyDocument&Client=EPA&Index=2011+Thru+2015&Docs=&Query=&Time=&EndTime=&SearchMethod=1&TocRestrict=n&Toc=&TocEntry=&QField=&QFieldYear=&QFieldMonth=&QFieldDay=&IntQFieldOp=0&ExtQFieldOp=0&XmlQuery=&File=D%3A%5Czyfiles%5CIndex%20Data%5C11thru15%5CTxt%5C00000011%5CP100JPPH.txt&User=ANONYMOUS&Password=anonymous&SortMethod=h%7C-&MaximumDocuments=1&FuzzyDegree=0&ImageQuality=r75g8/r75g8/x150y150g16/i425&Display=hpfr&DefSeekPage=x&SearchBack=ZyActionL&Back=ZyActionS&BackDesc=Results%20page&MaximumPages=1&ZyEntry=1&SeekPage=x&ZyPURL https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyNET.exe/P100JPPH.TXT?ZyActionD=Z... Over the lifetime of the car -- at least 100000 miles -- that's 25 tonnes at a bare minimum. But EVs last longer than FCVs, so we should increase the range to at least 200000 miles and 50 tonnes CO2 equivalent (or 80 for a typical car), where EVs start to pull away substantially. Furthermore, the emissions associated with EV producing depend in part on fuel-derived electricity used in manufacturing, which can be reduced dramatically by switching to nonfuel electricity production. Overall, EVs represent a massive decrease in pollution. However, the most important things to solve are the problems we haven't solved: principally grid-level electricity storage that permits a higher fraction of electricity production from renewable sources. EVs, wind turbines and photovoltaics by contrast are technologies that are already applied in practice.
  - reitzensteinm 6y ago
    I am very sceptical of the claim that EVs will have a higher lifetime than ICEs. The latter reach end of life in the Western world due to a lack of desirability, not because of the maintenance burden. A 20 year old EV will still smell bad, have gunk you can't clean all over the surfaces, not communicate with your phone etc. Maybe it will be true, but I don't think you should count your chickens just yet, certainly not by a factor of 2.

rhn_mk1 6y ago

This seems to be the same area Effective Altruism is interested in. I recommend looking at 80000 hours as a starting point: https://80000hours.org/ https://80000hours.org/

curo 6y ago
Perfect, "Effective Altruism" is the keyword I'm looking for. I've heard of the 80000 people and will follow that thread. Thank you