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According to Worldometers data [1], Brazil is currently trending, on a global level, 1st in new cases, 1st in new deaths, 2nd in overall deaths and, within a fe

According to Worldometers data [1], Brazil is currently trending, on a global level, 1st in new cases, 1st in new deaths, 2nd in overall deaths and, within a few days from now, 2nd in total deaths. Real estimates are said to be up to 6x official numbers. I really wish the Youtube videos [2] by Atila Iamarino, a PhD in Virology, were available in English. I couldn't recommend him enough. He's done 21 talks on the situation in Brazil and elsewhere, and often mentions how the official data lies. 1 - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 2 - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSTlOTcyUmzvhQi6F8lFi5w/videos https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSTlOTcyUmzvhQi6F8lFi5w/vid...

Findeton 6y ago
BTW Spain is using the same tactics to basically say there are no new deaths. But there are.
- hadrien01 6y ago
  Do you have a source?
  - Findeton 6y ago
    https://www.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-cd26-41dd-9642-616708b43673 https://www.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-cd26-41dd-9642-616708b43...
    - genezeta 6y ago
      While I do not doubt for a minute that there has been and there is a lot of number fudging (both intentional and not), that link is 1.5 months old. I point it out just to mean that the data is not current and as such can hardly reflect the current situation. This [1] seems to have more current data about excess deaths. [1] https://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional https://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard....
      - kgwgk 6y ago
        > that link is 1.5 months old. Maybe the link has changed since you wrote your comment, but: "Flawed data casts cloud over Spain’s lockdown strategy "Erratic numbers create uncertainties for policymakers and the public "Daniel Dombey in Madrid and John Burn-Murdoch in London JUNE 4 2020"
        genezeta 6y ago
        Yeah, that's not what the link previously pointed to, I guess. It was a report from mid-April.
    - ptato 6y ago
      paywall?
      - raphlinus 6y ago
        This Twitter thread is probably one of the best sources: (from John Burn-Murdoch, who does excellent data visualization work for the Financial Times) https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433 The paywall is also easily crossed by, for example, archive.is
  - saiya-jin 6y ago
    Not source per se but some common sense - worst hit european country, having 1 death yesterday, 1 day before. worldometers doesn't show daily data further back, but its either really exceptional coincidence, or not true.
    - ratww 6y ago
      > worldometers doesn't show daily data further back If you click the country name you can see a graph that displays the amount of deaths per day.
- personlurking 6y ago
  Spain's "baile de cifras" (numbers dance) made me lift an eyebrow over this past week. Lots of recalculations and zero deaths.
  - pvaldes 6y ago
    After following the evolution for a few weeks and seeing a lot of strange movements, I'm probably one of the few people that thinks that the "one step behind" Spanish Kaeshi Waza was smart and beautifully executed. To be fair, France, in a way, deserved it.
    - orwin 6y ago
      Could you detail your post? I'm afraid i'm not informed enough to understand the words after "one of the few people".
      - pvaldes 6y ago
        At this moment is just a plausible hypothetical explanation. Is not the only possible, but explains the pattern, and has a lot of sense.
sizeofchar 6y ago
Wasn’t this the guy who said there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths In Brazil by now?
onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago
What is the difference in overall deaths and total deaths???
- ambicapter 6y ago
  I assume its (all-cause) overall deaths vs (coronavirus-related) total deaths (since they've started counting coronavirus-related deaths)
- personlurking 6y ago
  My mistake! Thanks for catching the error
andrenth 6y ago
For context, Átila Iamarino predicted one million Coronavirus deaths. He became a YouTube celebrity after his alarmist (and completely wrong) predictions. Citing total number of cases in Brazil is disingenuous in my opinion because the country has one of the largest populations in the world. In terms of deaths/million people, Brazil is currently 20th on the list. Nothing to be proud of, but should provide some perspective.
- LorenPechtel 6y ago
  One million deaths from the virus in Brazil is only .5% of the population. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
- piva00 6y ago
  Given that Brazil has run just a bit less than 1 million tests so far with 675k cases (and counting) testing positive you can be sure that every number is underreported (with death counts probably being the most accurate as it's the hardest to fudge around). Apart from that the Health Ministry is hiding the numbers for acute respiratory syndrome deaths (which could be seasonally-adjusted and an inference to CoViD-19 deaths be made). He might be an alarmist but models all around the world are wrong and being updated constantly to keep on track with reality, you can't say that to dismiss all the information he's shared because of a missed prediction/projection. > Citing total number of cases in Brazil is disingenuous in my opinion because the country has one of the largest populations in the world. Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers, the growth of total numbers is explosive. Total population doesn't matter as it's barely the upper bound limit of total number of cases a given region might get, how the numbers are accruing towards this total is the most important information and the only way to keep track of that is by keeping track of the total cases. It doesn't matter that Brazil has a low ratio of deaths/million if the cases are still growing exponentially as deaths will always lag behind. Brazil's curve is accelerating, numbers are severely underreported, I heard the same kind of talking points in early March around death rates, etc. and the situation has steadily got worse by the day. Trying to paint a better picture by selecting a ratio-based metric doesn't seem to be the way to analyse Brazil's current situation, it's worsening and measures against the spread are being haphazardly removed or fought against by the Federal Government, it's a brewing disaster.
rmbyrro 6y ago
Atila Iamarino says the China Communist Party is the best example for the entire world to follow.

Findeton 6y ago

BTW Spain is using the same tactics to basically say there are no new deaths. But there are.

hadrien01 6y ago
Do you have a source?
- Findeton 6y ago
  https://www.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-cd26-41dd-9642-616708b43673 https://www.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-cd26-41dd-9642-616708b43...
  - genezeta 6y ago
    While I do not doubt for a minute that there has been and there is a lot of number fudging (both intentional and not), that link is 1.5 months old. I point it out just to mean that the data is not current and as such can hardly reflect the current situation. This [1] seems to have more current data about excess deaths. [1] https://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard.html#nacional https://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/dashboard/momo_dashboard....
    - kgwgk 6y ago
      > that link is 1.5 months old. Maybe the link has changed since you wrote your comment, but: "Flawed data casts cloud over Spain’s lockdown strategy "Erratic numbers create uncertainties for policymakers and the public "Daniel Dombey in Madrid and John Burn-Murdoch in London JUNE 4 2020"
      - genezeta 6y ago
        Yeah, that's not what the link previously pointed to, I guess. It was a report from mid-April.
  - ptato 6y ago
    paywall?
    - raphlinus 6y ago
      This Twitter thread is probably one of the best sources: (from John Burn-Murdoch, who does excellent data visualization work for the Financial Times) https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433 https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1268450736398098433 The paywall is also easily crossed by, for example, archive.is
- saiya-jin 6y ago
  Not source per se but some common sense - worst hit european country, having 1 death yesterday, 1 day before. worldometers doesn't show daily data further back, but its either really exceptional coincidence, or not true.
  - ratww 6y ago
    > worldometers doesn't show daily data further back If you click the country name you can see a graph that displays the amount of deaths per day.
personlurking 6y ago
Spain's "baile de cifras" (numbers dance) made me lift an eyebrow over this past week. Lots of recalculations and zero deaths.
- pvaldes 6y ago
  After following the evolution for a few weeks and seeing a lot of strange movements, I'm probably one of the few people that thinks that the "one step behind" Spanish Kaeshi Waza was smart and beautifully executed. To be fair, France, in a way, deserved it.
  - orwin 6y ago
    Could you detail your post? I'm afraid i'm not informed enough to understand the words after "one of the few people".
    - pvaldes 6y ago
      At this moment is just a plausible hypothetical explanation. Is not the only possible, but explains the pattern, and has a lot of sense.

sizeofchar 6y ago

Wasn’t this the guy who said there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths In Brazil by now?

onlyrealcuzzo 6y ago

What is the difference in overall deaths and total deaths???

ambicapter 6y ago
I assume its (all-cause) overall deaths vs (coronavirus-related) total deaths (since they've started counting coronavirus-related deaths)
personlurking 6y ago
My mistake! Thanks for catching the error

andrenth 6y ago

For context, Átila Iamarino predicted one million Coronavirus deaths. He became a YouTube celebrity after his alarmist (and completely wrong) predictions. Citing total number of cases in Brazil is disingenuous in my opinion because the country has one of the largest populations in the world. In terms of deaths/million people, Brazil is currently 20th on the list. Nothing to be proud of, but should provide some perspective.

LorenPechtel 6y ago
One million deaths from the virus in Brazil is only .5% of the population. That wouldn't surprise me at all.
piva00 6y ago
Given that Brazil has run just a bit less than 1 million tests so far with 675k cases (and counting) testing positive you can be sure that every number is underreported (with death counts probably being the most accurate as it's the hardest to fudge around). Apart from that the Health Ministry is hiding the numbers for acute respiratory syndrome deaths (which could be seasonally-adjusted and an inference to CoViD-19 deaths be made). He might be an alarmist but models all around the world are wrong and being updated constantly to keep on track with reality, you can't say that to dismiss all the information he's shared because of a missed prediction/projection. > Citing total number of cases in Brazil is disingenuous in my opinion because the country has one of the largest populations in the world. Nothing that involves exponential growth should disregard total numbers, the growth of total numbers is explosive. Total population doesn't matter as it's barely the upper bound limit of total number of cases a given region might get, how the numbers are accruing towards this total is the most important information and the only way to keep track of that is by keeping track of the total cases. It doesn't matter that Brazil has a low ratio of deaths/million if the cases are still growing exponentially as deaths will always lag behind. Brazil's curve is accelerating, numbers are severely underreported, I heard the same kind of talking points in early March around death rates, etc. and the situation has steadily got worse by the day. Trying to paint a better picture by selecting a ratio-based metric doesn't seem to be the way to analyse Brazil's current situation, it's worsening and measures against the spread are being haphazardly removed or fought against by the Federal Government, it's a brewing disaster.

rmbyrro 6y ago

Atila Iamarino says the China Communist Party is the best example for the entire world to follow.