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But we are 10 years into a bull cycle. Shouldn't we see a recession soon regardless of COVID?

• adventured 6y ago
  If you have the Fed artificially buffering the expansion & recession forces (as we have, with their zero rates forever, QE infinite), you could see a slow overall rate of growth stretched out over a long period of time instead of a sharp & brief recessionary contraction and sharp bounce back as typical in the past. Their never-ending stimulus may smooth out that expected event. In that scenario, the only thing likely to cause a meaningful recession is an (perhaps inevitable) epic asset bubble popping, from some very high price point that gets so high in a parabolic run that it's unsustainable even if pumped by 0% Fed rates (think Bitcoin crashing down from the rapid run toward $20k or the last quarters of the dotcom bubble run).
• anm89 6y ago
  It took me a long time to swallow this pill but these things are arbitrary when they are up against certain levels of intervention. Gravity is real and this bubble will crash and it will be catastrophic but they could inflate and reinflate this bubble for decades if the macro environment cooperates. You really can't time or predict this stuff.
• dcolkitt 6y ago
  There's not really any evidence that bull markets die of old age.[1] For example prior to 2020, Australia had 29 years of robust economic growth without a recession.[2] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/07/bull-runs-dont-die-of-age--this-one-can-continue-says-strategist.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/07/bull-runs-dont-die-of-age--t... [2] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/economy/australia-recession/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/economy/australia-recessi...