5 ms·

In some places, like Oakland and Tahoe, rent seems to be going up. But in San Francisco it is going down. Probably all as a result of people fleeing San Francis

by lacker 6y ago

In some places, like Oakland and Tahoe, rent seems to be going up. But in San Francisco it is going down. Probably all as a result of people fleeing San Francisco to nearby places with a cheaper rent per square foot.

notJim 6y ago
Are that many people really moving away? I understand the logic, but it's a major life decision, so I'm surprised if it's happening so rapidly in response to covid. I've heard of people leaving the city temporarily, but assumed many of them were maintaining their apartments. I would have guessed the lower rents were more about money drying up, and landlords being desperate to hang onto any tenant who can pay.
- bshipp 6y ago
  You're right; the immediate response is driven by cash flow. The situation im talking about is likely a year or more away as many commercial firms are in longterm leases. I'm just saying that its definitely on the horizon given the conversations I'm having, even if evidence at the moment is scant.
- peruvian 6y ago
  It’s June. I don’t know about SF but in NYC most leases expire in June or July. A lot of companies aren’t ending WFH till 2021 or fall. Plenty of young people are not renewing their lease and staying with their family outside the city or state. My building had has four tenants move out in the past week - one a family. They’ll probably be back and rent again but by then rents will have dropped.
- qchris 6y ago
  Anecdotally, I know two professionals in their late twenties who used to live in New York City, but moved home to be with their family during quarantine. Their leases are up in September, and neither one seem likely to renew, since their jobs can be done remotely and their offices are planning on maintaining the status quo for the forseeable future, past the point when many people usually sign leases. I don't have data that this is a larger trend, but I don't see anything particularly unique about those two individual' s situations that would make a similar approach untenable or unappealing to many other people.
  - gen220 6y ago
    We're in a similar situation in our household. Our jobs are remote until (at least) 2021/1/1. Our lease is up in December, instead of June/July (unfortunately for us!). In our case, instead of moving away, we'd be pouncing on the way-below-baseline price, high-quality rentals that have been popping up for the last couple months. The market's totally inverted. It used to be that if deals like these appeared, they'd be snapped up within 48 hours or less. Nowadays, they linger for days and even weeks in some cases. To clarify, I've been tracking 1-2BR apartments in the Clinton Hill-Brooklyn Heights-Park Slope-Carrol Gardens quadrangle. I've heard that other neighborhoods are popping in the other direction, but I don't follow them as avidly. This crisis is terrible in many ways, but it's also a perfect opportunity to find your long-term rental "forever-apartment", if your lease is up.
matwood 6y ago
Yeah, people want that space for a home office now.
jeffbee 6y ago
Mix shift. Oakland has just gone through a major wave of new construction. New apartments command higher rents. This does not necessarily imply a movement of people.
- rodgerd 6y ago
  > Oakland has just gone through a major wave of new construction. New apartments command higher rents. Funny, the religion in these parts is usually that building more apartments is the only way to drop rents.
  - mint2 6y ago
    All new construction in the bay is usually high priced luxury since that’s where developers make the most return. Thus new units aren’t cheaper. What I’ve heard is that’s either supposed to free up other older apartments or we’re supposed to wait 30 years for the new luxury apartments to become old and cheaper. I think we need rules about constructing diversified units, not exclusively luxury ones but proportional numbers of basic, medium and luxury.
    - mint2 6y ago
      How in the world did this one of my comments get a downvote.
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    New construction (supply) brings down prices overall but rental market reports only include inventory turning over right now, which is biased toward new, empty, and more expensive buildings. These two facts are not conflicting.

by lacker 6y ago

notJim 6y ago

Are that many people really moving away? I understand the logic, but it's a major life decision, so I'm surprised if it's happening so rapidly in response to covid. I've heard of people leaving the city temporarily, but assumed many of them were maintaining their apartments. I would have guessed the lower rents were more about money drying up, and landlords being desperate to hang onto any tenant who can pay.

bshipp 6y ago
You're right; the immediate response is driven by cash flow. The situation im talking about is likely a year or more away as many commercial firms are in longterm leases. I'm just saying that its definitely on the horizon given the conversations I'm having, even if evidence at the moment is scant.
peruvian 6y ago
It’s June. I don’t know about SF but in NYC most leases expire in June or July. A lot of companies aren’t ending WFH till 2021 or fall. Plenty of young people are not renewing their lease and staying with their family outside the city or state. My building had has four tenants move out in the past week - one a family. They’ll probably be back and rent again but by then rents will have dropped.
qchris 6y ago
Anecdotally, I know two professionals in their late twenties who used to live in New York City, but moved home to be with their family during quarantine. Their leases are up in September, and neither one seem likely to renew, since their jobs can be done remotely and their offices are planning on maintaining the status quo for the forseeable future, past the point when many people usually sign leases. I don't have data that this is a larger trend, but I don't see anything particularly unique about those two individual' s situations that would make a similar approach untenable or unappealing to many other people.
- gen220 6y ago
  We're in a similar situation in our household. Our jobs are remote until (at least) 2021/1/1. Our lease is up in December, instead of June/July (unfortunately for us!). In our case, instead of moving away, we'd be pouncing on the way-below-baseline price, high-quality rentals that have been popping up for the last couple months. The market's totally inverted. It used to be that if deals like these appeared, they'd be snapped up within 48 hours or less. Nowadays, they linger for days and even weeks in some cases. To clarify, I've been tracking 1-2BR apartments in the Clinton Hill-Brooklyn Heights-Park Slope-Carrol Gardens quadrangle. I've heard that other neighborhoods are popping in the other direction, but I don't follow them as avidly. This crisis is terrible in many ways, but it's also a perfect opportunity to find your long-term rental "forever-apartment", if your lease is up.

matwood 6y ago

Yeah, people want that space for a home office now.

jeffbee 6y ago

Mix shift. Oakland has just gone through a major wave of new construction. New apartments command higher rents. This does not necessarily imply a movement of people.

rodgerd 6y ago
> Oakland has just gone through a major wave of new construction. New apartments command higher rents. Funny, the religion in these parts is usually that building more apartments is the only way to drop rents.
- mint2 6y ago
  All new construction in the bay is usually high priced luxury since that’s where developers make the most return. Thus new units aren’t cheaper. What I’ve heard is that’s either supposed to free up other older apartments or we’re supposed to wait 30 years for the new luxury apartments to become old and cheaper. I think we need rules about constructing diversified units, not exclusively luxury ones but proportional numbers of basic, medium and luxury.
  - mint2 6y ago
    How in the world did this one of my comments get a downvote.
- jeffbee 6y ago
  New construction (supply) brings down prices overall but rental market reports only include inventory turning over right now, which is biased toward new, empty, and more expensive buildings. These two facts are not conflicting.