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Interesting they didn’t also include Blue Origin in the mix: https://www.blueorigin.com/ https://www.blueorigin.com/ In my opinion, we should see crewed sub-or

Interesting they didn’t also include Blue Origin in the mix: https://www.blueorigin.com/ https://www.blueorigin.com/ In my opinion, we should see crewed sub-orbital flights from them within the year, and possibly crewed orbital flights in the 4-8 year time frame... where those crewed orbital flights may have capacity to go all the way to the moon.

robszumski 6y ago
This might have been punishment for them being too secretive. The press can only talk about your plans if they have enough information.
- valuearb 6y ago
  The press can only talk about your accomplishments if you actually have some.
  - itsoktocry 6y ago
    >The press can only talk about your accomplishments if you actually have some. Why is it that Elon Musk fans claim to be about these overarching, prohumanity missions ("Accelerating the transition to renewable energy! Enabling people to live on other planets!"), but then spend half their time hating on competitors with common goals?
    - icelancer 6y ago
      Because along the way, Elon actually gets things done.
51Cards 6y ago
I keep wondering if Blue Origin has something up their sleeve. New Shepard has a great track record but only for sub-orbital hops so far and hasn't yet carried human passengers after 12 successful flights. The New Glen concept looks interesting but it has been in the works for a long time with nothing visible yet. They do also have a great engine in development with customers for it. Several years back Blue Origin used to friendly troll SpaceX on who was leading who but now it's not even talked about. I'll be curious to see how complete New Glen is when they roll it out as more competition, more better.
- valuearb 6y ago
  BO was founded before SpaceX, has spent far more than SpaceX and has accomplished squat. The BE-4 has been “sold” to customers but started development before Raptor, and is far behind it in technology and accomplishments. We won’t see a BE-4 flight before next year, if even that soon.
  - itsoktocry 6y ago
    >has accomplished squat Accomplished squat? They're building rockets and engines, mostly out of the public eye, with private money. How is that nothing? Because it isn't the exact path SpaceX is taking? BO wants to land on the moon by 2024. Let's see what happens.
    - 51Cards 6y ago
      I'm not a BO hater by any means but I find that timeline to be virtually impossible. On the most basic level the craft they would need to use hasn't even seen the light of day, let alone accomplished any orbital flights. Something like the moon is a very iterative process. You need orbital flight capabilities, second and perhaps third stage capabilities, life support, launch abort systems, landing and take off from the moon, EVA gear and provable safe earth re-entry... just to name the few key ones off the top of my head. All are huge challenges and you have to solve them step by step with multiple test at each level. The year 2024 is 4 years away. At BO's current test rate of 2-3 flights a year, and with a rocket that hasn't come out of the factory yet I can't possibly see how it could happen. I look forward to what they will accomplish but they have a very very long way to go. Edit: adding that BO did recently win a contract to develop a lander only for the Moon and this is much more feasable. But it would still be docking with NASA's Orion for the actual trip there and back.
    - adventured 6y ago
      > mostly out of the public eye, with private money. While I agree with the sentiment of your comment, BO is also developing with public money. It's true that their funding has largely been private, it's not exclusively so however. "Blue Origin will receive up to $500 million from the United States Air Force over the period 2019 - 2024 if they are a finalist in the Launch Services Agreement competition, of which they have received at least $181 million so far." "Blue Origin has also completed work for NASA on several small development contracts, receiving total funding of US$25.7 million by 2013" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin#Funding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin#Funding
valuearb 6y ago
BO has been testing New Shepherd for four years with little visible progress, hoping for crewed flights this year is audacious. It’s unclear whether New Shepherd will even be continued based on all the other projects on their plate, and the likely limited demand for their minimal joyrides. And calling them sub-orbital is being generous. Mercury suborbital flights flew much higher and faster, and actually covered hundreds of miles in a parabolic arc. By comparison New Shepherd is a toy, a very expensive trampoline.
- dwaltrip 6y ago
  New Shepherd crosses the Karman line. It travels into space. I don’t know why you are insinuating otherwise. Obviously, it is quite far from orbiting but it is a legitimate, albeit brief, trip to space. That being said, I agree with you that their progress has been pretty damn slow. They do 1-2 test flights per year... As for demand, doesn’t Virgin Galactic, who will offer something very similar, have a customer list with hundreds of people who have prepaid? Demand might be much higher than you are suggesting.
  - derekp7 6y ago
    To me, sub orbital is a "trip to space" in the same way as a non-stop flight from New York to LA is a "trip to Kansas" since you fly over it and other states in between. You aren't going "to" some place unless you can actually stay there for a period of time. But that is just my personal view. Another way of looking at it -- if the earth didn't have an atmosphere, would you be going "to space" by jumping on a trampoline? (ignoring the fact that we evolved to live in an atmosphere, of course).
    - dwaltrip 6y ago
      Well, space tourists are likely going more for the 100km view and the zero-g experience, which is present for a few minutes on a sub-orbital trip. Given that you can't get this experience anywhere else, a few minutes is better than nothing. The exiting of the atmosphere is part of the view [1], but it works in concert with the altitude. Trampolines, as far as I am aware, are incapable of propelling one to an altitude that provides such incredible views :) [1] https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1529.html https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1...
mzkply 6y ago
They're not building an orbital capsule...
deleted 6y ago
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robszumski 6y ago

This might have been punishment for them being too secretive. The press can only talk about your plans if they have enough information.

valuearb 6y ago
The press can only talk about your accomplishments if you actually have some.
- itsoktocry 6y ago
  >The press can only talk about your accomplishments if you actually have some. Why is it that Elon Musk fans claim to be about these overarching, prohumanity missions ("Accelerating the transition to renewable energy! Enabling people to live on other planets!"), but then spend half their time hating on competitors with common goals?
  - icelancer 6y ago
    Because along the way, Elon actually gets things done.

51Cards 6y ago

I keep wondering if Blue Origin has something up their sleeve. New Shepard has a great track record but only for sub-orbital hops so far and hasn't yet carried human passengers after 12 successful flights. The New Glen concept looks interesting but it has been in the works for a long time with nothing visible yet. They do also have a great engine in development with customers for it. Several years back Blue Origin used to friendly troll SpaceX on who was leading who but now it's not even talked about. I'll be curious to see how complete New Glen is when they roll it out as more competition, more better.

valuearb 6y ago
BO was founded before SpaceX, has spent far more than SpaceX and has accomplished squat. The BE-4 has been “sold” to customers but started development before Raptor, and is far behind it in technology and accomplishments. We won’t see a BE-4 flight before next year, if even that soon.
- itsoktocry 6y ago
  >has accomplished squat Accomplished squat? They're building rockets and engines, mostly out of the public eye, with private money. How is that nothing? Because it isn't the exact path SpaceX is taking? BO wants to land on the moon by 2024. Let's see what happens.
  - 51Cards 6y ago
    I'm not a BO hater by any means but I find that timeline to be virtually impossible. On the most basic level the craft they would need to use hasn't even seen the light of day, let alone accomplished any orbital flights. Something like the moon is a very iterative process. You need orbital flight capabilities, second and perhaps third stage capabilities, life support, launch abort systems, landing and take off from the moon, EVA gear and provable safe earth re-entry... just to name the few key ones off the top of my head. All are huge challenges and you have to solve them step by step with multiple test at each level. The year 2024 is 4 years away. At BO's current test rate of 2-3 flights a year, and with a rocket that hasn't come out of the factory yet I can't possibly see how it could happen. I look forward to what they will accomplish but they have a very very long way to go. Edit: adding that BO did recently win a contract to develop a lander only for the Moon and this is much more feasable. But it would still be docking with NASA's Orion for the actual trip there and back.
  - adventured 6y ago
    > mostly out of the public eye, with private money. While I agree with the sentiment of your comment, BO is also developing with public money. It's true that their funding has largely been private, it's not exclusively so however. "Blue Origin will receive up to $500 million from the United States Air Force over the period 2019 - 2024 if they are a finalist in the Launch Services Agreement competition, of which they have received at least $181 million so far." "Blue Origin has also completed work for NASA on several small development contracts, receiving total funding of US$25.7 million by 2013" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin#Funding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Origin#Funding

valuearb 6y ago

BO has been testing New Shepherd for four years with little visible progress, hoping for crewed flights this year is audacious. It’s unclear whether New Shepherd will even be continued based on all the other projects on their plate, and the likely limited demand for their minimal joyrides. And calling them sub-orbital is being generous. Mercury suborbital flights flew much higher and faster, and actually covered hundreds of miles in a parabolic arc. By comparison New Shepherd is a toy, a very expensive trampoline.

dwaltrip 6y ago
New Shepherd crosses the Karman line. It travels into space. I don’t know why you are insinuating otherwise. Obviously, it is quite far from orbiting but it is a legitimate, albeit brief, trip to space. That being said, I agree with you that their progress has been pretty damn slow. They do 1-2 test flights per year... As for demand, doesn’t Virgin Galactic, who will offer something very similar, have a customer list with hundreds of people who have prepaid? Demand might be much higher than you are suggesting.
- derekp7 6y ago
  To me, sub orbital is a "trip to space" in the same way as a non-stop flight from New York to LA is a "trip to Kansas" since you fly over it and other states in between. You aren't going "to" some place unless you can actually stay there for a period of time. But that is just my personal view. Another way of looking at it -- if the earth didn't have an atmosphere, would you be going "to space" by jumping on a trampoline? (ignoring the fact that we evolved to live in an atmosphere, of course).
  - dwaltrip 6y ago
    Well, space tourists are likely going more for the 100km view and the zero-g experience, which is present for a few minutes on a sub-orbital trip. Given that you can't get this experience anywhere else, a few minutes is better than nothing. The exiting of the atmosphere is part of the view [1], but it works in concert with the altitude. Trampolines, as far as I am aware, are incapable of propelling one to an altitude that provides such incredible views :) [1] https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1529.html https://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/imagegallery/image_feature_1...

mzkply 6y ago

They're not building an orbital capsule...

deleted 6y ago

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