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Can’t tell if serious or troll. Successful human spaceflight on reusable hardware > lower cost to orbit of personnel > increased economic activity in orbit > c

Can’t tell if serious or troll. Successful human spaceflight on reusable hardware > lower cost to orbit of personnel > increased economic activity in orbit > construction of manufacturing facilities > scale up of materials, capability, endurance and knowledge > ability to construct and launch Mars ships and supply a colony Or something like that.

Hamuko 6y ago
Lower cost to orbit, sure. Increased economic activity in orbit? Where does that part come from? It's not like we haven't sent people to the ISS before. And it's not like SpaceX hasn't managed to reuse hardware before. It's basically just a mix of those two things. Really the most significant things about this were that astronauts were launched to space from the US and it was a private company. And out of those, the first thing is really more symbolic than anything else. The ISS is about 400 km from the surface of the Earth. Mars is like what, 225 000 000 km?
- mercer 6y ago
  Well we're not gonna get to Mars with that attitude!
  - bamboozled 6y ago
    Mars is key ! We must get to Mars!!!
    - rtkwe 6y ago
      I'm not so sold on the planetary backup drum beat. If we can live on Mars we can live on an Earth affected by basically anything using the same tech. The only real bonus is there'd be less people there to support, which feels like running away and letting the planet burn.
  - monadic2 6y ago
    Seems like that’s exactly the attitude you need.
- yellowapple 6y ago
  > Lower cost to orbit, sure. Increased economic activity in orbit? Where does that part come from? Lower cost to orbit translates pretty directly to increased economic activity in orbit, since said economic activity is less expensive to do (and therefore more accessible to more people). But agreed. This ain't a huge achievement... yet. It's essential groundwork for that achievement, though.
toyg 6y ago
The problem of getting to Mars is bigger than “just do more spacey stuff in space” though. There are some massive physical limits, in terms of fuel efficiency, that make it really really hard to get there and come back. That’s the main challenge and I don’t think SpaceX moved us particularly closer on that point. I’m in my forties and I don’t expect to see us on Mars in my lifetime, except on some poetic suicide mission (nice sidestep of euthanasia laws: “I’m not dying, I’m going to Mars!”). We might make something a bit more useful out of the Moon, though, if we don’t screw up too much.
- gfodor 6y ago
  Why is coming back particularly challenging? Isn't it by definition easier because Mars is less massive than Earth? It seems like what you're talking about here is a different problem: getting enough resources and manpower to Mars to be able to bootstrap what's needed for return trips. But it seems like that is pretty inductive and just a matter of time once an economically sustainable one-way flow of people and goods opens up. (Knowledge, obviously, being instantly transferable already.) This will certainly be challenging and all but certain, and especially fragile to start, but it seems more in reach than ever before in my lifetime.
  - helldritch 6y ago
    It's also worth mentioning that coming back isn't necessarily a fixed requirement. I would happily live a shorter live on Mars - with the risk overhead of being stranded in the event of a catastrophic failure - for the chance to be one of the first Martian settlers. Foreign colonists in the Americas (ignoring any political aspect of this) faced disease, starvation and attacks from natives but still colonised America because of a dream they had.
    - pbhjpbhj 6y ago
      Wasn't it more that trying things in [the continent of] America seemed more likely to yield success than staying with what they had where failure was relatively certain. Like religious persecution at home was certain for the Pilgrim Fathers, but in all likelihood they could form colonies where they could freely practice their religion by risking it in North America. For others it was abject poverty at home, or try carving out a piece of frontier. Seems like colonising Mars is the other way around, we stand more chance of fulfilment on Earth and failure going to Mars? Some of us have an explorational spirit, a desire to be pioneers at all costs - isn't that why we want to go? Maybe it's toxoplasmosis.
dlgeek 6y ago
To add to this: Completing the demo mission unlocks a ton of funding through the commercial crew program, the profits of which SpaceX can reinvest in their other efforts.

Hamuko 6y ago

Lower cost to orbit, sure. Increased economic activity in orbit? Where does that part come from? It's not like we haven't sent people to the ISS before. And it's not like SpaceX hasn't managed to reuse hardware before. It's basically just a mix of those two things. Really the most significant things about this were that astronauts were launched to space from the US and it was a private company. And out of those, the first thing is really more symbolic than anything else. The ISS is about 400 km from the surface of the Earth. Mars is like what, 225 000 000 km?

mercer 6y ago
Well we're not gonna get to Mars with that attitude!
- bamboozled 6y ago
  Mars is key ! We must get to Mars!!!
  - rtkwe 6y ago
    I'm not so sold on the planetary backup drum beat. If we can live on Mars we can live on an Earth affected by basically anything using the same tech. The only real bonus is there'd be less people there to support, which feels like running away and letting the planet burn.
- monadic2 6y ago
  Seems like that’s exactly the attitude you need.
yellowapple 6y ago
> Lower cost to orbit, sure. Increased economic activity in orbit? Where does that part come from? Lower cost to orbit translates pretty directly to increased economic activity in orbit, since said economic activity is less expensive to do (and therefore more accessible to more people). But agreed. This ain't a huge achievement... yet. It's essential groundwork for that achievement, though.

toyg 6y ago

The problem of getting to Mars is bigger than “just do more spacey stuff in space” though. There are some massive physical limits, in terms of fuel efficiency, that make it really really hard to get there and come back. That’s the main challenge and I don’t think SpaceX moved us particularly closer on that point. I’m in my forties and I don’t expect to see us on Mars in my lifetime, except on some poetic suicide mission (nice sidestep of euthanasia laws: “I’m not dying, I’m going to Mars!”). We might make something a bit more useful out of the Moon, though, if we don’t screw up too much.

gfodor 6y ago
Why is coming back particularly challenging? Isn't it by definition easier because Mars is less massive than Earth? It seems like what you're talking about here is a different problem: getting enough resources and manpower to Mars to be able to bootstrap what's needed for return trips. But it seems like that is pretty inductive and just a matter of time once an economically sustainable one-way flow of people and goods opens up. (Knowledge, obviously, being instantly transferable already.) This will certainly be challenging and all but certain, and especially fragile to start, but it seems more in reach than ever before in my lifetime.
- helldritch 6y ago
  It's also worth mentioning that coming back isn't necessarily a fixed requirement. I would happily live a shorter live on Mars - with the risk overhead of being stranded in the event of a catastrophic failure - for the chance to be one of the first Martian settlers. Foreign colonists in the Americas (ignoring any political aspect of this) faced disease, starvation and attacks from natives but still colonised America because of a dream they had.
  - pbhjpbhj 6y ago
    Wasn't it more that trying things in [the continent of] America seemed more likely to yield success than staying with what they had where failure was relatively certain. Like religious persecution at home was certain for the Pilgrim Fathers, but in all likelihood they could form colonies where they could freely practice their religion by risking it in North America. For others it was abject poverty at home, or try carving out a piece of frontier. Seems like colonising Mars is the other way around, we stand more chance of fulfilment on Earth and failure going to Mars? Some of us have an explorational spirit, a desire to be pioneers at all costs - isn't that why we want to go? Maybe it's toxoplasmosis.

dlgeek 6y ago

To add to this: Completing the demo mission unlocks a ton of funding through the commercial crew program, the profits of which SpaceX can reinvest in their other efforts.