13 ms·

That's not foolish. Modern lithography technology (and in general high-end semiconductor production) is complicated enough that neither US nor China may catch u

by rfoo 6y ago

That's not foolish. Modern lithography technology (and in general high-end semiconductor production) is complicated enough that neither US nor China may catch up in reasonable time, if they are targeting a domestic supply chain. That said, the caveat here is the "neither US nor China" part, why would ASML, a Dutch company, align itself with US?

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
What I mean by "foolish" is that in the long run (a decade), it will not work, and the entire policy of trying to stunt China's economic development will lead to conflict sooner or later. ASML didn't have a choice in the matter. The US government pressured the Dutch government to withdraw the export license. That's at the diplomatic level, way above the heads of company executives. The Netherlands is part of NATO and is more closely aligned with the US than with China. But the Netherlands could at some point decide that it just wants to do business with everyone.
- mytailorisrich 6y ago
  The US are trying to delay the inevitable but they might instead precipitate it, and that is costing them at the same time. The second issue here is Europe's continued weakness. If ASML controls EUV lithography then Europe should be much more assertive.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    My impression is that the European Union is too politically fractured to mount any consistent policy. Just one example: the French government has made noises about doing something to counter the United States' extraterritorial application its sanctions regime. US sanctions against Iran effectively apply to European companies, even if they have basically nothing to do with the US. The US can unilaterally force the EU to stop doing business with Iran. The French see that as a violation of their sovereignty. The problem is, if France proposes to do anything about it, Germany will object, because Germany fears that the US will retaliate against the German automotive industry. Imagine if the US could only take action when 50 states all agreed. There's no powerful central government in Europe that can decide to temporarily sacrifice some interests in order to achieve something more important - establishing independence of action from the US on sanctions policy.
    - yorwba 6y ago
      > The problem is, if France proposes to do anything about it, Germany will object, because Germany fears that the US will retaliate against the German automotive industry. I was under the impression that Germany is generally on board with the idea of using the INSTEX special-purpose vehicle to trade with Iran despite US sanctions. Of course the first (and only?) transaction was only completed this year, so the mechanism doesn't look too successful so far: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/instex-transaction/2329744 https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/instex-tran...
      - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        INSTEX has done virtually nothing to weaken the sanctions regime. The EU would have to take much stronger measures if it was really serious about preventing the US from imposing its sanctions regime on European companies. I'm not an expert, so I can only guess at what sort of measures Europe would have to take, but I imagine they would involve reciprocal retaliation for any measures the US takes to punish European companies.
  - dragandj 6y ago
    I am not sure Europe's best interest is to help China replace USA as the world's bully. Compared to future China, even USSR might be remembered with fond memories of that bully who harassed everyone for a time, but is in his hart just a depressed and neglected boy who needed a compassionate touch.
    - mytailorisrich 6y ago
      Europe should stand on its own and do what is in its best interests, not the US's, not China's. I don't think that the US's aggressive stance is in Europe's interests to follow. Standing your ground, sure, but this confrontation seems counterproductive in the long term and, again, is simply trying to delay the inevitable, IMO.
      - dragandj 6y ago
        Doesn't Europe already do what is in its best interest? Is Europe's best interest to be world's most powerful bully (which it is not at least since WW2), or to provide good life conditions for its population (which it arguably does), or even something else?
        quonn 6y ago
        It will have to be powerful. Otherwise others will impose their wishes (as Russia is doing with countries, as the US doing with companies and as China is trying to do with public opinion or statements of facts in European media as well as statements by parliaments).
      - flyinglizard 6y ago
        The relationship between US and EU is very one sided and it’s not the Americans who are the benefactors. EU gets unlimited access to the worlds best consumer market, secure trade everywhere, military bases on their territory, deterrence against the Soviets - they’re so dependent on the US they don’t keep more than token militaries. Why do you think the EU wants to throw all of this good away?
- 082349872349872 6y ago
  JFK had some thoughts on ways to resolve conflict: https://nationalcenter.org/KennedyInaugural.html https://nationalcenter.org/KennedyInaugural.html but I guess not everyone was on board with "where the strong are just and the weak secure and the peace preserved". (Διογένης, I like your "bottleneck" much better than Brookings' word choice)
markvdb 6y ago
The US have a long track record of using soft power and extraterritorial law to punish foreign states and companies, including supposed allies. The two most interesting cases where high profile European companies were targeted had something to do with US sanctions against Cuba and Iran. Examples abound. Look at what happened to BNP Paribas. This is how it looks in a press release: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bnp-paribas-settlement-sentencing-idUSKBN0NM41K20150501 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bnp-paribas-settlement-se...
- nyolfen 6y ago
  if a country does not do this, it is only because they lack the strength
- exclusiv 6y ago
  Can you explain this from the article: "Georges Dirani, BNP’s general counsel, told the judge that the bank accepted “full responsibility for its conduct" "There’s no question the organization will not tolerate the kind of behavior we have seen in this case,” Dirani said." Am I missing something or did you just submit a terrible example for your allegation?
  - markvdb 6y ago
    I suspect you're missing somethingindeed. Of course, BNP's general counsel sounded submissive. His company entered a plea deal in the US. The issue at stake is how extraterritorial the US legislation is. Should the US government be able to determine that an EU company cannot do anything anywhere anytime involving US dollars if it has Iranian clients for example?
    - exclusiv 6y ago
      I reviewed more and I don't appear to be missing anything. Yes to your question. "BNP Paribas has been present in the United States since the late 1800s and currently has over 16,000 employees in North America." [1] From the article: "The sentencing followed BNP Paribas’ guilty plea in July to conspiring from 2004 to 2012 to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the Trading with the Enemy Act." You violate Acts and you want to operate in the US, you get sentenced. If they want to play ball, they need to follow the laws. "Authorities said that BNP essentially functioned as the “central bank for the government of Sudan,” concealing its tracks and failing to cooperate when first contacted by law enforcement." You had written - "The US have a long track record of using soft power and extraterritorial law to punish foreign states and companies, including supposed allies" Again, you submitted a terrible example. [1] https://usa.bnpparibas/en/bnp-paribas/bnp-paribas-us/ https://usa.bnpparibas/en/bnp-paribas/bnp-paribas-us/
amelius 6y ago
> Modern lithography technology (and in general high-end semiconductor production) is complicated enough that neither US nor China may catch up in reasonable time I suppose that much of the tech is already in the scientific literature, and the "only" problem left is putting the pieces together.
- Olreich 6y ago
  Intel can’t do it. The leader of chip fans for near half a century failed to deliver on this generation of lithography. That’s the level of difficulty we’re talking about.
  - amelius 6y ago
    Intel is stuck in fierce competition. They don't have the money that China has. I suppose that Apple or Google would be able to pull it off though.
    - BobbyJo 6y ago
      Neither of those two companies have any of the needed expertise. If all you have is money, it will take you decades to catch up.
    - flyinglizard 6y ago
      Neither have any fab operations, what makes you think they could make a dent? Mind you don’t have to just make chips. You can’t make inferior chips and brand them a certain way. You need to be an actual market leader at the cutting edge of fab technology, otherwise Apple devices will not be competitive.
- ktta 6y ago
  There is a reason TSMC is the only fab working on <='7nm' class lithography. It is hard. It also requires massive amounts of capital expenditure. And that's the case when the critical equipment is bought from a different company that's again, in a league of its own. So even if the 'only' problem is putting the pieces together, that doesn't mean it is even possible. Look at it another way-- same thing can be said about Nuclear Fusion :D
the-dude 6y ago
> why would ASML, a Dutch company, align itself with US? Are you kidding me? Why do you think we ( the Dutch ) are in Iraq and Afghanistan? If the US asks, we ask : how high?
- NicoJuicy 6y ago
  The sentiment is changing somewhat though. The US used to be a leader in the Western world. Currently: not so much. The value of the US with shared 'western' values is greatly declining, since they are retreating from almost every partnership.
  - avmich 6y ago
    This effect wasn't visible during previous White House administration and perhaps will be reversed within the next one. Current isolationist politics, with explicit mantra "America first" looks more like an aberration rather than a long term reality.
    - close04 6y ago
      Trust is easier lost than gained. In international diplomacy "losing trust" simply means you get a wake-up call: what happens next time the White House decides to squeeze their allies? With populism on the rise the next president might go for the jugular for next to nothing because that's what voters with no understanding of international diplomacy and politics want and expect. Right now the US "pays" for the support of other western countries by footing the bill for everything military. When this is outweighed by the abuse of soft power it may just start pushing allies towards other soft power projecting countries.
      - avmich 6y ago
        > Trust is easier lost than gained. Completely agree. America has a lot to do to gain it back; it's a long process. "Squeezing allies" sounds interesting. Maybe they shouldn't be "squeezed" in the first place, so it's good that they can't? On the other hand, if, for example, Europe sees the benefits in countering some specific China expansion issue, USA won't need to ask too much for a concerted response. And frankly, Western alliance has no alternative today; maybe only going alone - or as a European Union, but USA (and Canada to a degree) are still the best partners. That doesn't mean, of course, that USA doesn't make bad mistakes lately.
rapsey 6y ago
> why would ASML, a Dutch company, align itself with US? Netherlands is a founding NATO member. It boggles my mind how this is even a question to anyone.
- temac 6y ago
  Not really a strong criteria: so is France but we are kind of tired of US bullshit.
  - rapsey 6y ago
    Tired of US or not France is firmly in the western world.
    - temac 6y ago
      But that's so vague that so what? Tons of high profile people have been talking about how it is not tolerable that the US is unilaterally forcing embargoes using the $US and tech as a weapon. Development of alternatives take time, but this has already started. The goal is not to replace the US with China. Not only things are not reducible to a single dimension, but even if they were, it does not make the need to enforce our own sovereignty disappear.
      - 082349872349872 6y ago
        Et que nos champions songeaient à se défendre / Arrive un troisième Larron / Qui saisit Maître Aliboron ?
  - rumanator 6y ago
    > so is France but France has always been kind of contrarian. For example, they are NATO members but unbelievably they were also selling Russia a couple of Mistral landing platform docks.
  - ardit33 6y ago
    No one in NATO trusts France (especially former communist countries). France left once, and came back. They used to pander to communist regime during the Cold War. During the NATO bombing during the Yugoslavian dissolution, a French General was caught giving out the bombing plans to the enemy. No wonder nobody likes their foreign policy, and Macron is puzzled why the other EU countries don’t follow France in creating a Common EU military force. The other countries know when push comes to shove, the US is a reliable partner, while France is not.
markus_zhang 6y ago
Because if you don't align itself with US there is going to be extended trouble from all angles.
devy 6y ago
Because ASML uses lots of technologies and IPs originated from the U.S., consequently is subject to export control & entity list restrictions. Semiconductor industries has been growing into a very tightly coupled and globalized eco-systems these days. No one country can own or domesticate the entire ecosystem or supply chains, albeit companies headquarters in the U.S. still own a significant portion of the technologies and intellectual properties.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  This tight global integration is why US sanctions policy is so disruptive. The US is asserting the right to tell European, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese companies who they can do business with, based on those companies' connection to the US economy. Use of American-designed software, interactions with a US bank, engagement in dollar-denominated transactions, etc. can all put a company under American jurisdiction. It will be interesting to see if European countries begin to try to push back against this policy. Imposition of American sanctions against Iran on European companies have already caused a good deal of consternation in Europe. But so far, the EU has been too fractured to do anything serious about it.
  - HenryBemis 6y ago
    "We" give them the right, USA cannot stop a bank transacting with X or X company in Iran, Cuba, etc. but since USA owns the USD they can block these banks from using/clearing USD which is a lethal blow for a bank. But if USA gets on the wrong side of this and countries start phasing out $ and start favouring € (this is a 50 year process btw) then USA will have an empty threat in its hands. And I do know that there many connecting points/sanctions that can be imposed, not just the currency.
  - thejynxed 6y ago
    It's supposed to cause consternation because even the UN has declared Iran a state sponsor of terrorism for the last fifty years and nobody in the EU should even be considering doing business with them.
jmknoll 6y ago
Because the US and the Netherlands are long-term strategic allies and partners in NATO, share a broadly similar vision of a world governed by international institutions and the rule of law (if the current US decline into authoritarianism can be reversed), and largely share a common culture and history? The Netherlands has benefited greatly from 400 years of the dominance of western civilization, and I assume they would want to see that continue?
- Udik 6y ago
  Much more simply, because the US is a rich customer and military giant with a population of 330 million, and has the means to hurt the Netherlands, a country of only 17 million people. This is not moral suasion, this is pure and simple bullying.
  - fastball 6y ago
    Pretty sure China has a handful more than 330 million people.
    - Udik 6y ago
      Sure, but the Netherlands is not as interdependent with China as it is with the US. The point is that the US is not convincing the Netherlands that blocking China is a smart move (because it isn't), it's forcing it with threats.
  - HenryBemis 6y ago
    USA can bully many countries, but NL is part of the EU so sit back, shut up, and play nice. To make this even more political, UK is (finally) leaving the EU, and as they have been USA's little bitch/snitch for the past few decades that makes many Europeans happy. EU is not the enemy of USA. If anything we are trying to create a peaceful union based on collaboration and respect. And we want to form a unified culture of respect and peace with freedom and progress. And on the EU side we are making it happen slow and steady. "You Americans" go and clean up the shitshows you have caused in your backyard and then come talk to us. And with that said, I have really enjoyed every of my visits to the USA, vast majority of the people are friendly and open hearted. It is the stupid politics and the lobbying politicians I can't stand. I strongly believe that once USA stops the race to "global domination" (that MAGA stuff) and starts on global unification we will succeed to have a better life all over the planet. And even those who disagree with our way of life will sooner or later join us or wither and die (and I don't mean we bomb them).
skrebbel 6y ago
Yes it is foolish. I know quite some people at ASML and I worked a bit in lithography in the past. Yes, it's extremely hard to make a machine that can compete with ASML's. But given enough smart people, I'm convinced that it's totally possible. Making a machine that can compete with what ASML could do, say, 20 years ago is a matter of 10 people and 2 years (I did some contracting at a company that did just that). If you start there and then just keep adding the right kind of talent, then I bet in 10-15 years you can get impressively close. Don't underestimate the enormous amount of technical and engineering debt ASML has accumulated through decades of mad deadline pushing. Nobody has time to invest in eg automated tests or anything that lets you guard code quality because all the good engineers are needed on the critical path to make the next deadline, and there's always a next deadline and it's always 3 months sooner than in any way reasonable. This is how they became a world monopoly, effectively. It's been a good strategy. They ship so early that the machines they sell simply don't work yet, so they put two engineers inside the box with it who (together with 50 more engineers back home) make the thing actually work while the customer sets it up in their fab. As a result, their codebase is a steaming pile of shit. Copy & paste galore. An example: the code is so bad that you can't just fix bugs. If you find an off-by-one error in the code and you want to fix it, you first write a "risk assessment document" where you describe what the bug does and whether any code could potentially rely on the presence of the bug. Then multiple layers of risk assessment officers assess whether you get a go. Then, if you get a go, you can go and fix your off-by-one error in similar-but-not-the-same C files across 7 product families. To be honest I don't know if the same holds for ASMLs mechanical engineering, physics, electro etc departments, but their software dept (a large percentage of their entire R&D) is easily 10x less productive than similarly sized and skilled software teams elsewhere. It's really mind boggling. I'm convinced that a good startup with a good mindset, plus sufficiently good funding, can totally build a competitor. China just has to fund 20 litho startups so that 19 can mess it up and 1 makes it big.
- andy_ppp 6y ago
  I think you should write out that YC application... oh and just start believing you’re the one who’s actually going to do it because you are ;-)

by rfoo 6y ago

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago

What I mean by "foolish" is that in the long run (a decade), it will not work, and the entire policy of trying to stunt China's economic development will lead to conflict sooner or later. ASML didn't have a choice in the matter. The US government pressured the Dutch government to withdraw the export license. That's at the diplomatic level, way above the heads of company executives. The Netherlands is part of NATO and is more closely aligned with the US than with China. But the Netherlands could at some point decide that it just wants to do business with everyone.

mytailorisrich 6y ago
The US are trying to delay the inevitable but they might instead precipitate it, and that is costing them at the same time. The second issue here is Europe's continued weakness. If ASML controls EUV lithography then Europe should be much more assertive.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  My impression is that the European Union is too politically fractured to mount any consistent policy. Just one example: the French government has made noises about doing something to counter the United States' extraterritorial application its sanctions regime. US sanctions against Iran effectively apply to European companies, even if they have basically nothing to do with the US. The US can unilaterally force the EU to stop doing business with Iran. The French see that as a violation of their sovereignty. The problem is, if France proposes to do anything about it, Germany will object, because Germany fears that the US will retaliate against the German automotive industry. Imagine if the US could only take action when 50 states all agreed. There's no powerful central government in Europe that can decide to temporarily sacrifice some interests in order to achieve something more important - establishing independence of action from the US on sanctions policy.
  - yorwba 6y ago
    > The problem is, if France proposes to do anything about it, Germany will object, because Germany fears that the US will retaliate against the German automotive industry. I was under the impression that Germany is generally on board with the idea of using the INSTEX special-purpose vehicle to trade with Iran despite US sanctions. Of course the first (and only?) transaction was only completed this year, so the mechanism doesn't look too successful so far: https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/instex-transaction/2329744 https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/instex-tran...
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      INSTEX has done virtually nothing to weaken the sanctions regime. The EU would have to take much stronger measures if it was really serious about preventing the US from imposing its sanctions regime on European companies. I'm not an expert, so I can only guess at what sort of measures Europe would have to take, but I imagine they would involve reciprocal retaliation for any measures the US takes to punish European companies.
- dragandj 6y ago
  I am not sure Europe's best interest is to help China replace USA as the world's bully. Compared to future China, even USSR might be remembered with fond memories of that bully who harassed everyone for a time, but is in his hart just a depressed and neglected boy who needed a compassionate touch.
  - mytailorisrich 6y ago
    Europe should stand on its own and do what is in its best interests, not the US's, not China's. I don't think that the US's aggressive stance is in Europe's interests to follow. Standing your ground, sure, but this confrontation seems counterproductive in the long term and, again, is simply trying to delay the inevitable, IMO.
    - dragandj 6y ago
      Doesn't Europe already do what is in its best interest? Is Europe's best interest to be world's most powerful bully (which it is not at least since WW2), or to provide good life conditions for its population (which it arguably does), or even something else?
      - quonn 6y ago
        It will have to be powerful. Otherwise others will impose their wishes (as Russia is doing with countries, as the US doing with companies and as China is trying to do with public opinion or statements of facts in European media as well as statements by parliaments).
    - flyinglizard 6y ago
      The relationship between US and EU is very one sided and it’s not the Americans who are the benefactors. EU gets unlimited access to the worlds best consumer market, secure trade everywhere, military bases on their territory, deterrence against the Soviets - they’re so dependent on the US they don’t keep more than token militaries. Why do you think the EU wants to throw all of this good away?
082349872349872 6y ago
JFK had some thoughts on ways to resolve conflict: https://nationalcenter.org/KennedyInaugural.html https://nationalcenter.org/KennedyInaugural.html but I guess not everyone was on board with "where the strong are just and the weak secure and the peace preserved". (Διογένης, I like your "bottleneck" much better than Brookings' word choice)

markvdb 6y ago

The US have a long track record of using soft power and extraterritorial law to punish foreign states and companies, including supposed allies. The two most interesting cases where high profile European companies were targeted had something to do with US sanctions against Cuba and Iran. Examples abound. Look at what happened to BNP Paribas. This is how it looks in a press release: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bnp-paribas-settlement-sentencing-idUSKBN0NM41K20150501 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bnp-paribas-settlement-se...

nyolfen 6y ago
if a country does not do this, it is only because they lack the strength
exclusiv 6y ago
Can you explain this from the article: "Georges Dirani, BNP’s general counsel, told the judge that the bank accepted “full responsibility for its conduct" "There’s no question the organization will not tolerate the kind of behavior we have seen in this case,” Dirani said." Am I missing something or did you just submit a terrible example for your allegation?
- markvdb 6y ago
  I suspect you're missing somethingindeed. Of course, BNP's general counsel sounded submissive. His company entered a plea deal in the US. The issue at stake is how extraterritorial the US legislation is. Should the US government be able to determine that an EU company cannot do anything anywhere anytime involving US dollars if it has Iranian clients for example?
  - exclusiv 6y ago
    I reviewed more and I don't appear to be missing anything. Yes to your question. "BNP Paribas has been present in the United States since the late 1800s and currently has over 16,000 employees in North America." [1] From the article: "The sentencing followed BNP Paribas’ guilty plea in July to conspiring from 2004 to 2012 to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the Trading with the Enemy Act." You violate Acts and you want to operate in the US, you get sentenced. If they want to play ball, they need to follow the laws. "Authorities said that BNP essentially functioned as the “central bank for the government of Sudan,” concealing its tracks and failing to cooperate when first contacted by law enforcement." You had written - "The US have a long track record of using soft power and extraterritorial law to punish foreign states and companies, including supposed allies" Again, you submitted a terrible example. [1] https://usa.bnpparibas/en/bnp-paribas/bnp-paribas-us/ https://usa.bnpparibas/en/bnp-paribas/bnp-paribas-us/

amelius 6y ago

> Modern lithography technology (and in general high-end semiconductor production) is complicated enough that neither US nor China may catch up in reasonable time I suppose that much of the tech is already in the scientific literature, and the "only" problem left is putting the pieces together.

Olreich 6y ago
Intel can’t do it. The leader of chip fans for near half a century failed to deliver on this generation of lithography. That’s the level of difficulty we’re talking about.
- amelius 6y ago
  Intel is stuck in fierce competition. They don't have the money that China has. I suppose that Apple or Google would be able to pull it off though.
  - BobbyJo 6y ago
    Neither of those two companies have any of the needed expertise. If all you have is money, it will take you decades to catch up.
  - flyinglizard 6y ago
    Neither have any fab operations, what makes you think they could make a dent? Mind you don’t have to just make chips. You can’t make inferior chips and brand them a certain way. You need to be an actual market leader at the cutting edge of fab technology, otherwise Apple devices will not be competitive.
ktta 6y ago
There is a reason TSMC is the only fab working on <='7nm' class lithography. It is hard. It also requires massive amounts of capital expenditure. And that's the case when the critical equipment is bought from a different company that's again, in a league of its own. So even if the 'only' problem is putting the pieces together, that doesn't mean it is even possible. Look at it another way-- same thing can be said about Nuclear Fusion :D

the-dude 6y ago

> why would ASML, a Dutch company, align itself with US? Are you kidding me? Why do you think we ( the Dutch ) are in Iraq and Afghanistan? If the US asks, we ask : how high?

NicoJuicy 6y ago
The sentiment is changing somewhat though. The US used to be a leader in the Western world. Currently: not so much. The value of the US with shared 'western' values is greatly declining, since they are retreating from almost every partnership.
- avmich 6y ago
  This effect wasn't visible during previous White House administration and perhaps will be reversed within the next one. Current isolationist politics, with explicit mantra "America first" looks more like an aberration rather than a long term reality.
  - close04 6y ago
    Trust is easier lost than gained. In international diplomacy "losing trust" simply means you get a wake-up call: what happens next time the White House decides to squeeze their allies? With populism on the rise the next president might go for the jugular for next to nothing because that's what voters with no understanding of international diplomacy and politics want and expect. Right now the US "pays" for the support of other western countries by footing the bill for everything military. When this is outweighed by the abuse of soft power it may just start pushing allies towards other soft power projecting countries.
    - avmich 6y ago
      > Trust is easier lost than gained. Completely agree. America has a lot to do to gain it back; it's a long process. "Squeezing allies" sounds interesting. Maybe they shouldn't be "squeezed" in the first place, so it's good that they can't? On the other hand, if, for example, Europe sees the benefits in countering some specific China expansion issue, USA won't need to ask too much for a concerted response. And frankly, Western alliance has no alternative today; maybe only going alone - or as a European Union, but USA (and Canada to a degree) are still the best partners. That doesn't mean, of course, that USA doesn't make bad mistakes lately.

rapsey 6y ago

> why would ASML, a Dutch company, align itself with US? Netherlands is a founding NATO member. It boggles my mind how this is even a question to anyone.

temac 6y ago
Not really a strong criteria: so is France but we are kind of tired of US bullshit.
- rapsey 6y ago
  Tired of US or not France is firmly in the western world.
  - temac 6y ago
    But that's so vague that so what? Tons of high profile people have been talking about how it is not tolerable that the US is unilaterally forcing embargoes using the $US and tech as a weapon. Development of alternatives take time, but this has already started. The goal is not to replace the US with China. Not only things are not reducible to a single dimension, but even if they were, it does not make the need to enforce our own sovereignty disappear.
    - 082349872349872 6y ago
      Et que nos champions songeaient à se défendre / Arrive un troisième Larron / Qui saisit Maître Aliboron ?
- rumanator 6y ago
  > so is France but France has always been kind of contrarian. For example, they are NATO members but unbelievably they were also selling Russia a couple of Mistral landing platform docks.
- ardit33 6y ago
  No one in NATO trusts France (especially former communist countries). France left once, and came back. They used to pander to communist regime during the Cold War. During the NATO bombing during the Yugoslavian dissolution, a French General was caught giving out the bombing plans to the enemy. No wonder nobody likes their foreign policy, and Macron is puzzled why the other EU countries don’t follow France in creating a Common EU military force. The other countries know when push comes to shove, the US is a reliable partner, while France is not.

markus_zhang 6y ago

Because if you don't align itself with US there is going to be extended trouble from all angles.

devy 6y ago

Because ASML uses lots of technologies and IPs originated from the U.S., consequently is subject to export control & entity list restrictions. Semiconductor industries has been growing into a very tightly coupled and globalized eco-systems these days. No one country can own or domesticate the entire ecosystem or supply chains, albeit companies headquarters in the U.S. still own a significant portion of the technologies and intellectual properties.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
This tight global integration is why US sanctions policy is so disruptive. The US is asserting the right to tell European, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese companies who they can do business with, based on those companies' connection to the US economy. Use of American-designed software, interactions with a US bank, engagement in dollar-denominated transactions, etc. can all put a company under American jurisdiction. It will be interesting to see if European countries begin to try to push back against this policy. Imposition of American sanctions against Iran on European companies have already caused a good deal of consternation in Europe. But so far, the EU has been too fractured to do anything serious about it.
- HenryBemis 6y ago
  "We" give them the right, USA cannot stop a bank transacting with X or X company in Iran, Cuba, etc. but since USA owns the USD they can block these banks from using/clearing USD which is a lethal blow for a bank. But if USA gets on the wrong side of this and countries start phasing out $ and start favouring € (this is a 50 year process btw) then USA will have an empty threat in its hands. And I do know that there many connecting points/sanctions that can be imposed, not just the currency.
- thejynxed 6y ago
  It's supposed to cause consternation because even the UN has declared Iran a state sponsor of terrorism for the last fifty years and nobody in the EU should even be considering doing business with them.

jmknoll 6y ago

Because the US and the Netherlands are long-term strategic allies and partners in NATO, share a broadly similar vision of a world governed by international institutions and the rule of law (if the current US decline into authoritarianism can be reversed), and largely share a common culture and history? The Netherlands has benefited greatly from 400 years of the dominance of western civilization, and I assume they would want to see that continue?

Udik 6y ago
Much more simply, because the US is a rich customer and military giant with a population of 330 million, and has the means to hurt the Netherlands, a country of only 17 million people. This is not moral suasion, this is pure and simple bullying.
- fastball 6y ago
  Pretty sure China has a handful more than 330 million people.
  - Udik 6y ago
    Sure, but the Netherlands is not as interdependent with China as it is with the US. The point is that the US is not convincing the Netherlands that blocking China is a smart move (because it isn't), it's forcing it with threats.
- HenryBemis 6y ago
  USA can bully many countries, but NL is part of the EU so sit back, shut up, and play nice. To make this even more political, UK is (finally) leaving the EU, and as they have been USA's little bitch/snitch for the past few decades that makes many Europeans happy. EU is not the enemy of USA. If anything we are trying to create a peaceful union based on collaboration and respect. And we want to form a unified culture of respect and peace with freedom and progress. And on the EU side we are making it happen slow and steady. "You Americans" go and clean up the shitshows you have caused in your backyard and then come talk to us. And with that said, I have really enjoyed every of my visits to the USA, vast majority of the people are friendly and open hearted. It is the stupid politics and the lobbying politicians I can't stand. I strongly believe that once USA stops the race to "global domination" (that MAGA stuff) and starts on global unification we will succeed to have a better life all over the planet. And even those who disagree with our way of life will sooner or later join us or wither and die (and I don't mean we bomb them).

skrebbel 6y ago

Yes it is foolish. I know quite some people at ASML and I worked a bit in lithography in the past. Yes, it's extremely hard to make a machine that can compete with ASML's. But given enough smart people, I'm convinced that it's totally possible. Making a machine that can compete with what ASML could do, say, 20 years ago is a matter of 10 people and 2 years (I did some contracting at a company that did just that). If you start there and then just keep adding the right kind of talent, then I bet in 10-15 years you can get impressively close. Don't underestimate the enormous amount of technical and engineering debt ASML has accumulated through decades of mad deadline pushing. Nobody has time to invest in eg automated tests or anything that lets you guard code quality because all the good engineers are needed on the critical path to make the next deadline, and there's always a next deadline and it's always 3 months sooner than in any way reasonable. This is how they became a world monopoly, effectively. It's been a good strategy. They ship so early that the machines they sell simply don't work yet, so they put two engineers inside the box with it who (together with 50 more engineers back home) make the thing actually work while the customer sets it up in their fab. As a result, their codebase is a steaming pile of shit. Copy & paste galore. An example: the code is so bad that you can't just fix bugs. If you find an off-by-one error in the code and you want to fix it, you first write a "risk assessment document" where you describe what the bug does and whether any code could potentially rely on the presence of the bug. Then multiple layers of risk assessment officers assess whether you get a go. Then, if you get a go, you can go and fix your off-by-one error in similar-but-not-the-same C files across 7 product families. To be honest I don't know if the same holds for ASMLs mechanical engineering, physics, electro etc departments, but their software dept (a large percentage of their entire R&D) is easily 10x less productive than similarly sized and skilled software teams elsewhere. It's really mind boggling. I'm convinced that a good startup with a good mindset, plus sufficiently good funding, can totally build a competitor. China just has to fund 20 litho startups so that 19 can mess it up and 1 makes it big.

andy_ppp 6y ago
I think you should write out that YC application... oh and just start believing you’re the one who’s actually going to do it because you are ;-)