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What would be the diplomatic consequences of this? I'm assuming China would be very unhappy with any country making this offer to Hong Kongers, but perhaps I'm

What would be the diplomatic consequences of this? I'm assuming China would be very unhappy with any country making this offer to Hong Kongers, but perhaps I'm wrong and they'd prefer for dissidents to leave.

adventured 6y ago
Minimal real diplomatic consequences, other than China issuing some loud statements that they're furious at the US meddling in their internal affairs. It might amount to 100k-300k people as a max range. It's an excellent opportunity for China to demonstrate the superiority of their system, as they so frequently claim. We'll play a little game. Open immigration into China for US citizens. Open immigration into the US for Chinese citizens. Let's see who gets the most immigration (it'd be lopsided 1,000 to 1 with millions of immigrants flowing into the US; we did it with Cuba from ~1960-1980, there's no reason we can't do it for people wanting to flee China; if the next Democrat President is smart, they'll implement a variation of this to create a more aggressive and persistent brain drain on China).
- Simulacra 6y ago
  The last thing we need is another Nixon moment of opening America to China. This has not proven to be in our best favor, aside from the multiple Chinese viruses that have floated our way; trade imbalance, current manipulation, gross human rights violations, IP theft, hacking, subversion of elections, oh gosh the list goes on. America must close the door on China.
billme 6y ago
Here’s a recent, though very limited, example of Germany giving asylum for Hong Kong independence activists in 2019 - with China’s public response at the time: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-germany-hongkong/china-calls-on-germany-to-correct-mistakes-over-asylum-for-hong-kong-independence-activists-idUSKCN1SV0DW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-germany-hongkong/ch...
mamborambo 6y ago
Somehow I don't think China care much about the people, so long as they can lay their hands on the wealth. The way they trample over the HK system, most of the elites and international connections will evaporate in a matter of months, and all they will have by the end of the year would be the crumbs of society.
dirtyid 6y ago
China is trying control overseas diaspora. Especially dissident voices. Exporting anti-state voices outside Chinese reach has long term consequences. A lot of anti-China sentiment is driven by previously persecuted groups that can be easily instrumentalized by western powers. Western Uighur, Tibet, HK, FLG advocacy groups have been very active for the last 30 years, and now their issues are magnified when aligned with western state interests for propaganda purposes. China doesn't want another generation of dissidents influencing with countries abroad. My guess is, HK nationals with linked anti-state activities will likely be denied ability to leave the country. If relations between China and West get particularly acrimonious, this will include foreign HKer with foreign passports who reside in HK under their HK citizenship - i.e. they get treated as Chinese nationals foremost since they never renounced their HK/Chinese citizenship. Many HKers with goldenticket passports who thought they could protest (read: foreign influence on Chinese affairs) consequence free may be in for a surprise. The entire situation can get off the rails. I think what China is most likely to do is Integrate HK into greater Bayarea, squeeze protesters into margins of society and out of HK by blacklisting them from local opportunities, disperse 4/7 million rebellious voices until it's drowned out by 66/70 million pro-CCP voices. Basically what Social Credit was designed to do: expel non-productive people or those that burden Chinese development out of privileged areas and visibility. Indoctrinate new generation to comport to CCP values, replaced displaced dissenters with mainlanders. HK becomes just another tamed Chinese city.

adventured 6y ago

Minimal real diplomatic consequences, other than China issuing some loud statements that they're furious at the US meddling in their internal affairs. It might amount to 100k-300k people as a max range. It's an excellent opportunity for China to demonstrate the superiority of their system, as they so frequently claim. We'll play a little game. Open immigration into China for US citizens. Open immigration into the US for Chinese citizens. Let's see who gets the most immigration (it'd be lopsided 1,000 to 1 with millions of immigrants flowing into the US; we did it with Cuba from ~1960-1980, there's no reason we can't do it for people wanting to flee China; if the next Democrat President is smart, they'll implement a variation of this to create a more aggressive and persistent brain drain on China).

Simulacra 6y ago
The last thing we need is another Nixon moment of opening America to China. This has not proven to be in our best favor, aside from the multiple Chinese viruses that have floated our way; trade imbalance, current manipulation, gross human rights violations, IP theft, hacking, subversion of elections, oh gosh the list goes on. America must close the door on China.

billme 6y ago

Here’s a recent, though very limited, example of Germany giving asylum for Hong Kong independence activists in 2019 - with China’s public response at the time: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-germany-hongkong/china-calls-on-germany-to-correct-mistakes-over-asylum-for-hong-kong-independence-activists-idUSKCN1SV0DW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-germany-hongkong/ch...

mamborambo 6y ago

Somehow I don't think China care much about the people, so long as they can lay their hands on the wealth. The way they trample over the HK system, most of the elites and international connections will evaporate in a matter of months, and all they will have by the end of the year would be the crumbs of society.

dirtyid 6y ago

China is trying control overseas diaspora. Especially dissident voices. Exporting anti-state voices outside Chinese reach has long term consequences. A lot of anti-China sentiment is driven by previously persecuted groups that can be easily instrumentalized by western powers. Western Uighur, Tibet, HK, FLG advocacy groups have been very active for the last 30 years, and now their issues are magnified when aligned with western state interests for propaganda purposes. China doesn't want another generation of dissidents influencing with countries abroad. My guess is, HK nationals with linked anti-state activities will likely be denied ability to leave the country. If relations between China and West get particularly acrimonious, this will include foreign HKer with foreign passports who reside in HK under their HK citizenship - i.e. they get treated as Chinese nationals foremost since they never renounced their HK/Chinese citizenship. Many HKers with goldenticket passports who thought they could protest (read: foreign influence on Chinese affairs) consequence free may be in for a surprise. The entire situation can get off the rails. I think what China is most likely to do is Integrate HK into greater Bayarea, squeeze protesters into margins of society and out of HK by blacklisting them from local opportunities, disperse 4/7 million rebellious voices until it's drowned out by 66/70 million pro-CCP voices. Basically what Social Credit was designed to do: expel non-productive people or those that burden Chinese development out of privileged areas and visibility. Indoctrinate new generation to comport to CCP values, replaced displaced dissenters with mainlanders. HK becomes just another tamed Chinese city.