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There's several arguments to be made in favor of fewer restrictions. This article makes the worst ones... - The projections were wrong - The fatality rate is

There's several arguments to be made in favor of fewer restrictions. This article makes the worst ones... - The projections were wrong - The fatality rate is lower than feared - Other diseases kill people too - This isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu - Lockdowns can harm people too The only good argument I've heard against lockdowns is that we have mounting evidence that less onerous restrictions are sufficient to keep the transmission rate low. This article doesn't touch on that at all.

glofish 6y ago
the most important summary of the paper, that you conveniently forget is that the measures taken will cause more damage and greater loss of life than what they save
- JoeAltmaier 6y ago
  Please limit the personal attacks. And as we all well know, a diseases' damage can grow geometrically. That's the whole issue. Which can also be 'conveniently forgot'
  - toomuchtodo 6y ago
    Assuming a US centric view, roughly 25% of the workforce is currently unemployed [1] (based on unemployment claims data). There is data suggesting ~37k deaths for every 1% increase in the unemployment rate [2], without considering deaths due to forced isolation (suicides and such). Based on the above math, that puts a proposed death toll from the economic response at ~777k citizens (25% minus the preCOVID 4% unemployment rate). Current death toll from COVID specifically is ~100k citizens. So we shifted the deaths from high risk individuals to economically disadvantaged individuals. The thesis that we overreacted ("the measures taken will cause more damage and greater loss of life than what they save") holds water. People were going to die regardless, and its easy to say we did the right thing when it's not you sitting at home waiting for a broken state unemployment system to provide you the benefits you're entitled to. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23271769 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23271769 [2] https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explaining-the-link-between-unemployment-deaths-amid-coronavirus/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explaining-the-link-between-un...
    - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
      Ignoring the time periods of course, and using annual figures instead of pro-rated? The lockdown is a temporary measure until we get a handle on things. Everybody on the internet who can divide one number by another, starts broadcasting bad math and claims to know the whole story. Its getting exhausting. We reacted, perhaps too strongly. But we had geometric growth and high morbidity as the only knows at the time. Now we know more. If we can get past the blame-throwing and hand-wringing, we can start monitoring and carefully restoring normal public behavior.
      - toomuchtodo 6y ago
        Economic advisers [1] [2] [3] have specifically said it will take years to recover the jobs lost over 3 months. It took 10 years from the 2008 GFC to arrive close to 3-4% unemployment. While unemployment is higher, more people will die from that economic situation. Are we going to go to Medicare For All and robust benefits systems to support citizens until those jobs come back so they don't die from lack of income and healthcare? Of course not, this is America. But at least we saved some lives /s [1] https://www.marketplace.org/2020/05/08/how-many-jobs-will-come-back-after-the-covid-19-pandemic-ends/ https://www.marketplace.org/2020/05/08/how-many-jobs-will-co... [2] https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/covid-19-is-also-a-reallocation-shock/ https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/covid-19-is-also-a-re... [3] https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly-coronavirus-special-edition/2020/05/07/when-are-the-jobs-coming-back-489151 https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly-corona...
        JoeAltmaier 6y ago
        And somebody has a crystal ball to predict unemployment won't rebound after lockdown? But yeah, keep on dividing those numbers by other numbers...
        jtbayly 6y ago
        If we keep throwing money at people who refuse to come back to work, then yeah, unemployment will remain high.
anthony_doan 6y ago
- This isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu That's an arbitrary high bar to set and compare. We don't have hindsight nor the test compacity to compare it to historic pandemics. People are going to write thesis about covid19 for decades to come.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
Uhuhreally 6y ago
- The projections were wrong + some of the projections were correct - The fatality rate is lower than feared + higher in some countries - Other diseases kill people too + like smallpox and ebola - This isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu + it's only just started - Lockdowns can harm people too + less than killing and permanently injuring people
- jtbayly 6y ago
  “ + less than killing and permanently injuring people” False. That is one of the effects of lockdown. We need to try compare the level, but people are being injured and dying because of the lockdown.
- jakeogh 6y ago
  "some of the projections were correct" Are you referring to Ioannidis? If not, can you link to them? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
LanceH 6y ago
Opening up does not need an argument. The only argument which needs to be satisfied is what restrictions should be in place. They don't need to justify anything to reopen. The pro-lockdown crowd needs to continually justify every restriction. So the reopen crowd is a bit up in arms right now because they keep hearing contradictory statements coming out. It's not as deadly as thought. Masks work (they didn't use to, right?). It's not transmitted as easily by surfaces as previously stated. With so many things being drawn back there is an expectation that restrictions should be drawn back as well. That said, I get groceries twice as week and that's it, but I'm lucky to have a remote job and no real worries about my finances.

glofish 6y ago

the most important summary of the paper, that you conveniently forget is that the measures taken will cause more damage and greater loss of life than what they save

JoeAltmaier 6y ago
Please limit the personal attacks. And as we all well know, a diseases' damage can grow geometrically. That's the whole issue. Which can also be 'conveniently forgot'
- toomuchtodo 6y ago
  Assuming a US centric view, roughly 25% of the workforce is currently unemployed [1] (based on unemployment claims data). There is data suggesting ~37k deaths for every 1% increase in the unemployment rate [2], without considering deaths due to forced isolation (suicides and such). Based on the above math, that puts a proposed death toll from the economic response at ~777k citizens (25% minus the preCOVID 4% unemployment rate). Current death toll from COVID specifically is ~100k citizens. So we shifted the deaths from high risk individuals to economically disadvantaged individuals. The thesis that we overreacted ("the measures taken will cause more damage and greater loss of life than what they save") holds water. People were going to die regardless, and its easy to say we did the right thing when it's not you sitting at home waiting for a broken state unemployment system to provide you the benefits you're entitled to. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23271769 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23271769 [2] https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explaining-the-link-between-unemployment-deaths-amid-coronavirus/ https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/explaining-the-link-between-un...
  - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
    Ignoring the time periods of course, and using annual figures instead of pro-rated? The lockdown is a temporary measure until we get a handle on things. Everybody on the internet who can divide one number by another, starts broadcasting bad math and claims to know the whole story. Its getting exhausting. We reacted, perhaps too strongly. But we had geometric growth and high morbidity as the only knows at the time. Now we know more. If we can get past the blame-throwing and hand-wringing, we can start monitoring and carefully restoring normal public behavior.
    - toomuchtodo 6y ago
      Economic advisers [1] [2] [3] have specifically said it will take years to recover the jobs lost over 3 months. It took 10 years from the 2008 GFC to arrive close to 3-4% unemployment. While unemployment is higher, more people will die from that economic situation. Are we going to go to Medicare For All and robust benefits systems to support citizens until those jobs come back so they don't die from lack of income and healthcare? Of course not, this is America. But at least we saved some lives /s [1] https://www.marketplace.org/2020/05/08/how-many-jobs-will-come-back-after-the-covid-19-pandemic-ends/ https://www.marketplace.org/2020/05/08/how-many-jobs-will-co... [2] https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/covid-19-is-also-a-reallocation-shock/ https://bfi.uchicago.edu/working-paper/covid-19-is-also-a-re... [3] https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly-coronavirus-special-edition/2020/05/07/when-are-the-jobs-coming-back-489151 https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly-corona...
      - JoeAltmaier 6y ago
        And somebody has a crystal ball to predict unemployment won't rebound after lockdown? But yeah, keep on dividing those numbers by other numbers...
        jtbayly 6y ago
        If we keep throwing money at people who refuse to come back to work, then yeah, unemployment will remain high.

anthony_doan 6y ago

- This isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu That's an arbitrary high bar to set and compare. We don't have hindsight nor the test compacity to compare it to historic pandemics. People are going to write thesis about covid19 for decades to come.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

Uhuhreally 6y ago

- The projections were wrong + some of the projections were correct - The fatality rate is lower than feared + higher in some countries - Other diseases kill people too + like smallpox and ebola - This isn't as bad as the Spanish Flu + it's only just started - Lockdowns can harm people too + less than killing and permanently injuring people

jtbayly 6y ago
“ + less than killing and permanently injuring people” False. That is one of the effects of lockdown. We need to try compare the level, but people are being injured and dying because of the lockdown.
jakeogh 6y ago
"some of the projections were correct" Are you referring to Ioannidis? If not, can you link to them? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23115056

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

LanceH 6y ago

Opening up does not need an argument. The only argument which needs to be satisfied is what restrictions should be in place. They don't need to justify anything to reopen. The pro-lockdown crowd needs to continually justify every restriction. So the reopen crowd is a bit up in arms right now because they keep hearing contradictory statements coming out. It's not as deadly as thought. Masks work (they didn't use to, right?). It's not transmitted as easily by surfaces as previously stated. With so many things being drawn back there is an expectation that restrictions should be drawn back as well. That said, I get groceries twice as week and that's it, but I'm lucky to have a remote job and no real worries about my finances.