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> If humanity's greatest weakness really is our failure to understand the exponential function If this is in regards to dismissing coronavirus concerns, I don'
by raziel2p 6y ago
> If humanity's greatest weakness really is our failure to understand the exponential function
If this is in regards to dismissing coronavirus concerns, I don't think that was the problem - more a case of people assuming the exponential growth would be magically stopped earlier by some governmental force or whatever.
When the first case in the city I live in was announced, I remember thinking to myself, it's just one case, they're now quarantined and they've probably done proper contact tracing and the country is preventing people coming in from infected regions abroad. I was perfectly aware how quick exponential growth happens, but to some extent had faith that "the system" would prevent it from going out of hand.
- Rerarom 6y agoIndeed, this was also one of my hypotheses. The problem is that there was much more asymptomatic transmission that it was initially assumed. Even later, when the exponential got out of control, I expected the states to step in with much more drastic measures than the lockdowns we have witnessed. I thought there will be tanks on the streets, I thought one day we will wake up and see the military everywhere à la 1968 Prague.
- jupp0r 6y agoI think somebody - when making those plans - realized there isn’t a tank for every street - or even every town. edit: typo
- giardini 6y agoRearom said>"I thought there will be tanks on the streets, I thought one day we will wake up and see the military everywhere à la 1968 Prague."< Only in the states with Democratic governors!8-))
- DC-3 6y agoIt's quite a famous quote from some notable smart person who I don't remember. I think they were talking about population growth (perhaps ironically). My intention was not to make a sly point about reactions to coronavirus.
- JoeAltmaier 6y agoOh I never imagined it could be contained. It's not the 1950's where folks lived and died within 2 miles of the spot they were born. People travel promiscuously today. Even if only 1 in 100 did, it'd defeat 'containment'. And far more travel than that. Heck we are more careful with pets and cattle, than with people. Because, disease. People were somehow exempt because it's inconvenient to quarantine - takes time. And now we're reaping the result of this.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoIf you thought it was inevitable as soon as a single case appeared in your country, that just seems misinformed. SARS was contained.
- JoeAltmaier 6y agoNope. SARS burned out that summer. Became less virulent when conditions changed. A disease that was killing folks worldwide, cause zero deaths in the USA. Despite spreading across half the country.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoThere were many countries that saw single or double digit cases but no more. I don’t think that can reasonably be characterized as “burned out”.
- JoeAltmaier 6y agoWe (I?) was talking about the USA.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoThe US epidemic did get a bit bigger, into the low hundreds, but they were spread across half of the states. That still looks a lot more like containment than an outbreak which happened to die off.