4 ms·

I'm pretty sure the CDC is just wrong about this, and the true IFR is about 1.0%. The CDC page in question doesn't have much of any information about their meth

I'm pretty sure the CDC is just wrong about this, and the true IFR is about 1.0%. The CDC page in question doesn't have much of any information about their methodology, and the claimed 0.3% is not consistent with what other research has found. Given the CDC's extremely poor track record, I don't think it's right to assign this estimate much weight.

pnako 6y ago
I'm pretty sure you are just wrong about this, and the true IFR is about 17.282%. "Believe Science(R). Wait, no, not this one!"
boomboomsubban 6y ago
The CDC is basically testing different methods of creating models based on the available research. They note that these results >Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19 Nothing wrong with their results, just some grunt work that other researchers may use. It isn't worth this media reaction though.
nradov 6y ago
What is your basis for being pretty sure about that?
ericb 6y ago
Could this channel be politically influenced, or do we think this is direct from scientists? I have no idea how to evaluate this possibility.
- boomboomsubban 6y ago
  This is not trying to evaluate the actual fatality rate, they're generating scenarios for use with mathematic models elsewhere in the federal government.
svaha1728 6y ago
Agree. New York fatalities are already at .3% of the population (estimating population at 8.39 million and deaths at 23k). Antibody estimates are that only ~20% were infected.
- odkamkfn 6y ago
  Are infections spread out across a representative sample of the population? Is the population of New York (in terms of genetic makeup, behavior, underlying conditions etc) match that of the rest of the world? I realize that this site is filled with autists who believe they can solve everything with a clean, simple model (the less lines of code the better, right?), but reality is a fucking mess. All models are not even wrong.
- elcritch 6y ago
  NY really appears to be an outlier for the US. An IFR of roughly 1.4% does appear more inline with that for older sicker populations. There may also be other factors such as a more deadly viral strain, older population vs the rest of the US, genetic makeup of the population being more prone to covid-19, or differences in healthcare access and or application. It really seems the fatality rate for covid-19 is bi-modal. Recognizing that seems critical to putting resources into finding the underlying reasons to respond with correct solutions for any given area.

pnako 6y ago

I'm pretty sure you are just wrong about this, and the true IFR is about 17.282%. "Believe Science(R). Wait, no, not this one!"

boomboomsubban 6y ago

The CDC is basically testing different methods of creating models based on the available research. They note that these results >Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19 Nothing wrong with their results, just some grunt work that other researchers may use. It isn't worth this media reaction though.

nradov 6y ago

What is your basis for being pretty sure about that?

ericb 6y ago

Could this channel be politically influenced, or do we think this is direct from scientists? I have no idea how to evaluate this possibility.

boomboomsubban 6y ago
This is not trying to evaluate the actual fatality rate, they're generating scenarios for use with mathematic models elsewhere in the federal government.

svaha1728 6y ago

Agree. New York fatalities are already at .3% of the population (estimating population at 8.39 million and deaths at 23k). Antibody estimates are that only ~20% were infected.

odkamkfn 6y ago
Are infections spread out across a representative sample of the population? Is the population of New York (in terms of genetic makeup, behavior, underlying conditions etc) match that of the rest of the world? I realize that this site is filled with autists who believe they can solve everything with a clean, simple model (the less lines of code the better, right?), but reality is a fucking mess. All models are not even wrong.
elcritch 6y ago
NY really appears to be an outlier for the US. An IFR of roughly 1.4% does appear more inline with that for older sicker populations. There may also be other factors such as a more deadly viral strain, older population vs the rest of the US, genetic makeup of the population being more prone to covid-19, or differences in healthcare access and or application. It really seems the fatality rate for covid-19 is bi-modal. Recognizing that seems critical to putting resources into finding the underlying reasons to respond with correct solutions for any given area.