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In the real world, people across the country will be piling in to pubs to socialise (actually socialise, not just 'chat at 2 metres away from a person they alre

In the real world, people across the country will be piling in to pubs to socialise (actually socialise, not just 'chat at 2 metres away from a person they already know') and a blind eye will be turned. People will go out, get smashed, snog, dance, hug, etc. If you force them out onto the street they'll do that. Maybe we'll even have a resurgence of good old pub violence. Most pubs can't even support this nonsense - a business with 10% of its' normal capacity is a dead business, there's no point in even opening the doors. I'll accept that the Government _might_ attempt a re-closure after the above happens, but I find that unlikely.

lkrubner 6y ago
"In the real world" This is denial masquerading as cynical realism. Covid-19 cases in the UK continue to increase at 1% or 2% a day. This is much better than the double digit growth of March and early April, but it is still bad. At 2% a day cases double every 5 weeks. Would anyone apply this reasoning to any other disease? Can you imagine anyone saying "We have AIDS under control, cases are only doubling once every 5 weeks." You might say that on the best days, the increase has only been 1%. That's fantastic. As soon as people start going back to the pubs, the rate of spread will again accelerate to something more than 1% a day. Classic psychological denial is clearly operating in force. A textbook case might be the man with pain in his chest and numbness in his left arm but instead of thinking it's a heart attack he keeps thinking "It's nothing, just stress." Denial is in force when things are so grim that people do not feel comfortable facing how grim they are. Some people don't see reality until they are forced to. Some people only have a lucid moment when they are in the ambulance on the way to the hospital. Some people never have a lucid moment, they simply die. In reality, the struggle against Covid-19 will take at least another year and might take two or more years. Things are going to be very bad for a long time. But no doubt, some people won't see that clearly till they've personally known some people who've died. The biggest worldwide increase for this illness was 2 days ago: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52748894 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52748894
- deleted 6y ago
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- esotericn 6y ago
  Personally, I think that that the mindset that you're causing deaths by going outside is an act of denial (on the part of those who believe they can avoid it). It's far more sane (in the sense of being compatible with remaining of sound mind), and realistic, to assume that if you interact with society in the next year or so you _will_ get the virus, and that you're risking your own life by going outside. To think otherwise is not only incorrect, it's socially poisonous. It's placing the burden of your own wellbeing onto every man, woman and child in the country, pitting us against each other in a cruel game, which at least on a statistical level is likely to have the same result regardless. > Can you imagine anyone saying "We have AIDS under control, cases are only doubling once every 5 weeks." HIV/AIDS is a disease that, prior to the invention of modern medication, had essentially a 100% fatality rate. By contrast, at even a 1% fatality rate (way higher than the actual rate when both asymptomatic individuals and the skew to the elderly are taken into account), a 1 year lockdown represents a greater fraction of most individuals' lives. If you're happy staying inside forever, more power to you. My vulnerable family members will be doing exactly that, regardless of Government advice, and it's very difficult for me to deal with the fact that I won't be able to see them as a result. I only hope that your asinine plan doesn't result in half of the population either going insane or revolting because you're stealing a significant portion of their youth.
  - xyzzy_plugh 6y ago
    > I only hope that your asinine plan doesn't result in half of the population either going insane or revolting because you're stealing a significant portion of their youth. There was a polio outbreak in the early 1950s here. A few hundred people died, thousands crippled. My grandmother recalls that the fairs were closed and she couldn't see her friends. A footnote in history. No one wen insane or revolted. The only significant portion of anyone's youth that was stolen was the impact of polio on its victims. In 100 years, the only footnote for 2020 will be all the deaths and suffering that this caused. No one will care that you were sad because you couldn't see your friends or go do sports. > My vulnerable family members will be doing exactly that, regardless of Government advice, and it's very difficult for me to deal with the fact that I won't be able to see them as a result. It would be easier if you also stayed inside -- then we could eradicate this virus and you could see them again. If only everyone were able to realize that.

lkrubner 6y ago

"In the real world" This is denial masquerading as cynical realism. Covid-19 cases in the UK continue to increase at 1% or 2% a day. This is much better than the double digit growth of March and early April, but it is still bad. At 2% a day cases double every 5 weeks. Would anyone apply this reasoning to any other disease? Can you imagine anyone saying "We have AIDS under control, cases are only doubling once every 5 weeks." You might say that on the best days, the increase has only been 1%. That's fantastic. As soon as people start going back to the pubs, the rate of spread will again accelerate to something more than 1% a day. Classic psychological denial is clearly operating in force. A textbook case might be the man with pain in his chest and numbness in his left arm but instead of thinking it's a heart attack he keeps thinking "It's nothing, just stress." Denial is in force when things are so grim that people do not feel comfortable facing how grim they are. Some people don't see reality until they are forced to. Some people only have a lucid moment when they are in the ambulance on the way to the hospital. Some people never have a lucid moment, they simply die. In reality, the struggle against Covid-19 will take at least another year and might take two or more years. Things are going to be very bad for a long time. But no doubt, some people won't see that clearly till they've personally known some people who've died. The biggest worldwide increase for this illness was 2 days ago: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52748894 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52748894

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
esotericn 6y ago
Personally, I think that that the mindset that you're causing deaths by going outside is an act of denial (on the part of those who believe they can avoid it). It's far more sane (in the sense of being compatible with remaining of sound mind), and realistic, to assume that if you interact with society in the next year or so you _will_ get the virus, and that you're risking your own life by going outside. To think otherwise is not only incorrect, it's socially poisonous. It's placing the burden of your own wellbeing onto every man, woman and child in the country, pitting us against each other in a cruel game, which at least on a statistical level is likely to have the same result regardless. > Can you imagine anyone saying "We have AIDS under control, cases are only doubling once every 5 weeks." HIV/AIDS is a disease that, prior to the invention of modern medication, had essentially a 100% fatality rate. By contrast, at even a 1% fatality rate (way higher than the actual rate when both asymptomatic individuals and the skew to the elderly are taken into account), a 1 year lockdown represents a greater fraction of most individuals' lives. If you're happy staying inside forever, more power to you. My vulnerable family members will be doing exactly that, regardless of Government advice, and it's very difficult for me to deal with the fact that I won't be able to see them as a result. I only hope that your asinine plan doesn't result in half of the population either going insane or revolting because you're stealing a significant portion of their youth.
- xyzzy_plugh 6y ago
  > I only hope that your asinine plan doesn't result in half of the population either going insane or revolting because you're stealing a significant portion of their youth. There was a polio outbreak in the early 1950s here. A few hundred people died, thousands crippled. My grandmother recalls that the fairs were closed and she couldn't see her friends. A footnote in history. No one wen insane or revolted. The only significant portion of anyone's youth that was stolen was the impact of polio on its victims. In 100 years, the only footnote for 2020 will be all the deaths and suffering that this caused. No one will care that you were sad because you couldn't see your friends or go do sports. > My vulnerable family members will be doing exactly that, regardless of Government advice, and it's very difficult for me to deal with the fact that I won't be able to see them as a result. It would be easier if you also stayed inside -- then we could eradicate this virus and you could see them again. If only everyone were able to realize that.