4 ms·

Wait what? Unemployment payments are the only things that are preventing a full scale depression and hardship for millions. These people have lost their jobs, h

by pm90 6y ago

Wait what? Unemployment payments are the only things that are preventing a full scale depression and hardship for millions. These people have lost their jobs, have no savings or assets, nothing. How are they going to get food? Pay rent? The quick action by Congress in boosting unemployment payments has been the only thing keeping the economy from going belly up. If that stops, we’re in for a lot of hurt.

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.
- SantalBlush 6y ago
  Right, even our federal shutdowns eventually come to an end with both parties reaching a budget agreement. The consequences of neglecting this unemployment crisis would be worse than a prolonged shutdown.
- derg 6y ago
  There are enough people completely divorced from reality in congress and in and around the presidency that it will potentially get incredibly hairy. I can absolutely see it getting to the absolute brink before they suddenly realize "oh shit this is bad" and pass an emergency "freedom payment" which again will be a one time thing and not be completely enough. My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term
  - kube-system 6y ago
    The federal stimulus never was nor was intended to be a long term solution to anything. Social safety nets in the US are mostly handled at the state level, and that doesn't look like it's showing any signs of changing.
    - derg 6y ago
      what happens when the states run out of money though, that is ultimately the problem. how long are the states going to be able to keep up without federal intervention?
  - rootusrootus 6y ago
    > absolute brink I would agree, but in an election year maybe they won't play it that way. The party in power has more incentive to keep voters mollified than they do in preserving their ideological purity. > we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term 100% agree. This is the classical American response, we have mastered the art of kicking the can down the road.
- sp332 6y ago
  You're thinking of a government that has rational people in charge. We have an extended family running one branch and a party holding on to power by its fingernails in the Senate. Look at the latest developments in the Inspector General purge. Trump is firing his 5th (6th? I lost count) IG, and illegally installing the replacement before the last one has been officially processed out. The new one is still an employee of the department, which not only compromises the whole idea, but exposes whistleblower complaints to management. The Senate hasn't even called a hearing about it. I don't mean to argue over any details, just pointing out that our federal government has had an axe taken to it for the last few years and it might not be able to do very obvious things right now.
  - true_religion 6y ago
    Right but will the States actually let this happen? If there are food riots, it’s the locals who suffer. Will Florida really wait for the federal government when Jacksonville is full of rioters, or will they setup food banks far in advance of that situation? I predict the later. Especially since States can do debt financing for their operations.
    - sp332 6y ago
      Maybe. But states can also call out the National Guard. Florida's police departments have been heavily militarized, even more so since the Orlando nightclub shooting in 2016. And that means that people will expect to be met with real force, so they will wait until they're in some serious deprivation before large riots even start.
  - SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
    You're totally right - the state of Denmark is thoroughly rotten, but even under this administration the debt ceiling crises were able to be resolved. The government shut down for a good long while, but it resumed function. Maybe it's past the point of no return, but sanity does seem to shine through at the last second when it must.
- NotSammyHagar 6y ago
  They are having this argument in congress right now. Republicans want to shrink unemployment because its bad for people, they don't want to give money to states because (that only helps blue states, red state budget deficits are different?), they want to shrink the size of unemployment because its higher than minimum wage in some places.
lumost 6y ago
I do not want to downplay the severity of such an outcome, but it is worth recalling that this type of event ( and worse ) has occurred to multiple developed nations within recent memory. Ultimately the economy will recover and normalize, even if the availability of certain items is limited for a period of time. The fall of the soviet union saw unemployment at 40% and widespread food rationing/limitations. I don't believe there is historic precedent for unemployment growing beyond 20-25% without widespread economic and societal restructuring, the great depression in the US saw the change from a government spending .3% of the economy to >30%.
- pm90 6y ago
  Past recovery is not a guarantee for future. I am very surprised at how much faith people seem to have in the stability of advanced economies. What we face today is not simply an economic recession; it’s a pandemic which is actively preventing people from engaging in the system, and the reality is that we might face more such natural disasters in the future. We have seen civilizations get undone quite dramatically in the past; it’s not guaranteed that it won’t happen again. In the case of the US: the economy was hollowed out by the 08 recession and Republicans prevented economic stimulus packages that would help in speedy recovery from passing. All the gains of the past 10 years were wiped out in a few months. At some point you have to ask how much pain people are willing to accept before casting aside a system which does not work.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    Nobody in history is immune from disaster. The world goes on. One can remember to be humble, that us humans are but a small part of nature and subject to her whims. There is no perfect system to avoid catastrophe. Not yours, not mine. Humanity progresses. It will continue to do so. Sometimes the best way to fix something is to riot in the streets. I hope it doesn't come to that, but often it does. Every couple hundred years or so a fraction of humanity dies due to disaster and/or strife, and we collectively continue to thrive and improve. This has been the pattern for all of recorded history. Why do you think it will be any different now?

by pm90 6y ago

SketchySeaBeast 6y ago

He argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.

SantalBlush 6y ago
Right, even our federal shutdowns eventually come to an end with both parties reaching a budget agreement. The consequences of neglecting this unemployment crisis would be worse than a prolonged shutdown.
derg 6y ago
There are enough people completely divorced from reality in congress and in and around the presidency that it will potentially get incredibly hairy. I can absolutely see it getting to the absolute brink before they suddenly realize "oh shit this is bad" and pass an emergency "freedom payment" which again will be a one time thing and not be completely enough. My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term
- kube-system 6y ago
  The federal stimulus never was nor was intended to be a long term solution to anything. Social safety nets in the US are mostly handled at the state level, and that doesn't look like it's showing any signs of changing.
  - derg 6y ago
    what happens when the states run out of money though, that is ultimately the problem. how long are the states going to be able to keep up without federal intervention?
- rootusrootus 6y ago
  > absolute brink I would agree, but in an election year maybe they won't play it that way. The party in power has more incentive to keep voters mollified than they do in preserving their ideological purity. > we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term 100% agree. This is the classical American response, we have mastered the art of kicking the can down the road.
sp332 6y ago
You're thinking of a government that has rational people in charge. We have an extended family running one branch and a party holding on to power by its fingernails in the Senate. Look at the latest developments in the Inspector General purge. Trump is firing his 5th (6th? I lost count) IG, and illegally installing the replacement before the last one has been officially processed out. The new one is still an employee of the department, which not only compromises the whole idea, but exposes whistleblower complaints to management. The Senate hasn't even called a hearing about it. I don't mean to argue over any details, just pointing out that our federal government has had an axe taken to it for the last few years and it might not be able to do very obvious things right now.
- true_religion 6y ago
  Right but will the States actually let this happen? If there are food riots, it’s the locals who suffer. Will Florida really wait for the federal government when Jacksonville is full of rioters, or will they setup food banks far in advance of that situation? I predict the later. Especially since States can do debt financing for their operations.
  - sp332 6y ago
    Maybe. But states can also call out the National Guard. Florida's police departments have been heavily militarized, even more so since the Orlando nightclub shooting in 2016. And that means that people will expect to be met with real force, so they will wait until they're in some serious deprivation before large riots even start.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y ago
  You're totally right - the state of Denmark is thoroughly rotten, but even under this administration the debt ceiling crises were able to be resolved. The government shut down for a good long while, but it resumed function. Maybe it's past the point of no return, but sanity does seem to shine through at the last second when it must.
NotSammyHagar 6y ago
They are having this argument in congress right now. Republicans want to shrink unemployment because its bad for people, they don't want to give money to states because (that only helps blue states, red state budget deficits are different?), they want to shrink the size of unemployment because its higher than minimum wage in some places.

lumost 6y ago

I do not want to downplay the severity of such an outcome, but it is worth recalling that this type of event ( and worse ) has occurred to multiple developed nations within recent memory. Ultimately the economy will recover and normalize, even if the availability of certain items is limited for a period of time. The fall of the soviet union saw unemployment at 40% and widespread food rationing/limitations. I don't believe there is historic precedent for unemployment growing beyond 20-25% without widespread economic and societal restructuring, the great depression in the US saw the change from a government spending .3% of the economy to >30%.

pm90 6y ago
Past recovery is not a guarantee for future. I am very surprised at how much faith people seem to have in the stability of advanced economies. What we face today is not simply an economic recession; it’s a pandemic which is actively preventing people from engaging in the system, and the reality is that we might face more such natural disasters in the future. We have seen civilizations get undone quite dramatically in the past; it’s not guaranteed that it won’t happen again. In the case of the US: the economy was hollowed out by the 08 recession and Republicans prevented economic stimulus packages that would help in speedy recovery from passing. All the gains of the past 10 years were wiped out in a few months. At some point you have to ask how much pain people are willing to accept before casting aside a system which does not work.
- mikem170 6y ago
  Nobody in history is immune from disaster. The world goes on. One can remember to be humble, that us humans are but a small part of nature and subject to her whims. There is no perfect system to avoid catastrophe. Not yours, not mine. Humanity progresses. It will continue to do so. Sometimes the best way to fix something is to riot in the streets. I hope it doesn't come to that, but often it does. Every couple hundred years or so a fraction of humanity dies due to disaster and/or strife, and we collectively continue to thrive and improve. This has been the pattern for all of recorded history. Why do you think it will be any different now?