10 ms·
Why our economy may be headed for a decade of depression
- rcpt 6y agoStop it my SPY puts already expired worthless.
- ChainOfFools 6y agowallstreetbets in my HN? obligatory SPY 6/11 285c
- ausbah 6y agothe headline is very optimistic for what the article contains
- kube-system 6y ago> Because tomorrow, every piece of consumer electronics, even your lowly coffee machine or microwave or toaster, is going to have a 5G chip. That’s what the internet of things is about. If the Chinese can listen to you through your smartphone, they can listen to you through your toaster. Once we declare that 5G is going to allow China to listen to our communication, we will also have to ban all household electronics made in China. This is a ridiculous conclusion. Even if we make the generous assumption that people want internet connected toasters, we're likely not getting rid of WiFi. And even if we did ban hypothetical 5G toasters, manufacturers in China wouldn't shut down their factories, they would simply make different toasters. It is hard to take this article seriously as legitimate analysis after reading things like this.
- crankylinuxuser 6y agoYeah I ran across some scaremongers on Twitter 6 months ago who were going on about vaccines (??) And 5G. I had and still have no clue about that. As a real aside, networking everything does definitely have upsides and downsides. Upsides: seamless monitoring, remote control via api, integration across a house/car/phone, remote presence (never worry that door was open, or coffee pot is on, or garage door up). Downsides: DRM at every level, unupdated devices, non-service things are now shorehorned into a service model, you no longer own your possessions, hacking, pay for a plan per device? There's also spectrum discussions with 10-100x devices chattering. That's going to raise noise floors even higher. ----------------------- Relevant edit of where I see IoT going towards: “The door refused to open. It said, “Five cents, please.” He searched his pockets. No more coins; nothing. “I’ll pay you tomorrow,” he told the door. Again he tried the knob. Again it remained locked tight. “What I pay you,” he informed it, “is in the nature of a gratuity; I don’t have to pay you.” “I think otherwise,” the door said. “Look in the purchase contract you signed when you bought this conapt.” In his desk drawer he found the contract; since signing it he had found it necessary to refer to the document many times. Sure enough; payment to his door for opening and shutting constituted a mandatory fee. Not a tip. “You discover I’m right,” the door said. It sounded smug. From the drawer beside the sink Joe Chip got a stainless steel knife; with it he began systematically to unscrew the bolt assembly of his apt’s money-gulping door. “I’ll sue you,” the door said as the first screw fell out. Joe Chip said, “I’ve never been sued by a door. But I guess I can live through it.” --- Phllip K Dick, "Ubik".
- kube-system 6y agoNetworking things makes sense when remote interaction is useful. There is very little you can do with a toaster, microwave, or coffee machine while you are not physically present. You can't send toast, coffee, or leftovers over a network. The 'internet of things' isn't useful in and of itself. There has to first be a practical use-case that justifies it. I haven't had to worry about the coffee pot being on for decades. My $20 coffee pot has a positive temperature coefficient heating element, thermal fuse, and automatic shutoff.
- gregkerzhner 6y agoPlaying devil's advocate, but I can see how people would appreciate a network connected coffee maker. My wife likes to stay in bed and scroll through her newsfeeds in the morning. If she could start the coffee maker from her phone, it would probably get her out of bed a lot faster.
- kube-system 6y agoSome people like to use their Cuisinart Grind & Brew instead of an alarm clock. The grinder will wake you up at the programmed time, and if you get up, you are rewarded with freshly ground coffee.
- karatestomp 6y agoYou can get a pretty dumb coffee maker that has a delayed brew setting. You'd have to put the grounds and water in anyway, so the extra effort is pressing a couple buttons on the machine right after you do that, rather than a couple buttons on your phone in the morning.
- leetcrew 6y agothis solves the problem for most people, but coffee enthusiasts aren't going to like the idea of grinding the beans 8+ hours before brewing.
- nsl73 6y agoI can imagine a hundred products that can benefit from 5G, and I’m just one person. WiFi is great for high power products that stay within trusted networks, but not everything does stay within a trusted network. 5G can also offer a convince of being pre-configured out of the box to work.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- TeMPOraL 6y agoIt's funny, because I imagine what you consider "benefit" I'd consider a disaster. Wi-Fi at least usually connects to the network you control. Mobile connections hook up directly to the telecom provider, and if we're talking appliances and not smartphones, that means you have zero control over what the device is sending. It's not just a matter of surveillance, but also a matter of further enabling shitty, user-hostile business models, where the physical hardware is only a proxy for a service.
- Aperocky 6y agoThe article just want you to believe that 'The Chinese' would want to put a microphone with 5G into your toaster. So that they could listen to YOU through the said toaster, because whatever shit you said near the toaster is obviously very important to the Chinese. Is there a more moronic idea? If someone were to listen to you, wouldn't it be easier to say... do it through the phone?
- elindbe2 6y agoI don't know about you, but I have very sensitive conversations with my self--out loud--while making toast.
- mydongle 6y agoI too engage in classified discussions regarding geopolitics and military operations while making toast.
- johnchristopher 6y agoThe enemy would rather you to have conversations about private matters they can blackmail you with though (or any piece of information that would help them find out how to help you tip to their side).
- 8note 6y agoThey're going to find out you eat Dijon mustard, disqualifying you from running for president
- imesh 6y agoI don't. But I imagine I would if it was my job.
- thephyber 6y agoI dislike this kind of thinking in security -- it is a very 19th century. The reason we only think about state security in the context of "geopolitics and military operations" is because that's all we hear about and that's probably all that nation-states used to be able to resource. But with cloud + machine learning + sufficient sensors, the old assumptions about resource scarcity for security intelligence collection is flipped. It used to take a few "James Bond" agents, a few "Q" engineers, and a large support staff to work one case at a time. That scarcity calculus is completely different now. Instead of "1 civilian to every 300 police officers", new data collection feels more like "300 police officers to every 1 civilian". The only thing that stops any sufficiently large organization from collecting dossiers on every person on Earth is "complexity versus competence".
- tootie 6y agoI think some legitimate concerns are popping up with so many poorly-engineereed iot devices hitting the market. I think the fears are amplified due to simple lack of understanding. I'd propose we start certifying consumer electronics for data safety the same way we certify them for electrical safety. We should start recognizing some groups like UL or ETL for software.
- dehrmann 6y agoExcept security is more of a moving target, so I'd rather see 1-3 open-source embedded distros that commit to supporting hardware for 10 years with over-the-air updates. Fly-by-night device makers have made it clear they can't be trusted with this. I'd also like to see a standard for a IoT gateway so you can easily observe your IoT traffic. Finding a way to open this up would go a long way in building trust.
- thephyber 6y ago> I'd rather see 1-3 open-source embedded distros that commit to supporting hardware for 10 years with over-the-air updates I don't see this happening unless a large company boostraps the funding for a distro like this, similar to how Microsoft boostrapped an open source election machine standard. "Over the air updates" requires the ability to pay for the bandwidth. I do think there's an interesting synergy with your IoT gateway idea and Bit Torrent distribution of the Over the air updates.
- sp332 6y agoThe thing with wifi is that you increasingly need a password to join. If a device comes with its own 4G/5G internet connection, it doesn't need your permission to phone home anymore.
- phkahler 6y agoCarriers still need to let a device on their network to get paid.
- saltcured 6y agoCarriers offer bulk-pricing for manufacturers to prepay these SIMs so that they get service without any interaction of the end user. And the prices are so low for these telemetry/low bandwidth plans that it doesn't take too much potential monetization to offset the cost to the manufacturer. A big part of 5G is really enabling these multitudes of low-traffic devices to have low marginal cost on the network.
- rgbrenner 6y agoYou didnt mention the biggest flaw in the argument: 5g has nothing to do with microphones.. and saying that 5g == microphones kind of says a lot about the writer's understanding of tech. Adding a microphone to a toaster would also be easy to recognize if the device were torn down. Maybe people won't do that to every toaster, but if this were widespread, a few toasters from different brands would eventually be torn down, and finding a microphone repeatedly would raise alarm.... I doubt this would work for very long before Chinese goods faced restrictions.
- sandworm101 6y agoUnless all sorts of consumer goods start integrating a generic IOT controller, one with a 5g connection and a sensor package that includes a microphone. I could see use for this. A microphone is essentially a vibration sensor, a useful generic item in many connected home appliances. For toasters specifically, a microphone listening for a smoke alarm (code in most kitchens) would be very interesting. A toaster could hear when it was burning the toast turn itself off.
- TeMPOraL 6y agoPut 5G connection in a SoC, and then have vendors use it under the guise of the toaster needing a CPU for timers and making perfect toast with machine learning, whatnot. Using a microphone to listen to other devices is more of a hack that hobbyists would do to monitor some dumb devices in their custom home automation network. I'd be surprised to ever see it in an IoT device; I think it's too unreliable. (Not to mention, a toaster listening to a fire alarm is a bit absurdish as systems architecture. But then again, I've given up on expecting the market to deliver intelligent solutions to actual problems.)
- trekrich 6y agoi want less integration to the internet and online services, not more.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y agoI'm trying to decide where the line between sound economic advice and scaremongering sits. I think it may be around "You’re going to start having food riots soon enough." At least I hope that's scaremongering. Given that everyone is doing their best to return to normal, I feel like running out of unemployment may not be as big of an issue as stated.
- pm90 6y agoWait what? Unemployment payments are the only things that are preventing a full scale depression and hardship for millions. These people have lost their jobs, have no savings or assets, nothing. How are they going to get food? Pay rent? The quick action by Congress in boosting unemployment payments has been the only thing keeping the economy from going belly up. If that stops, we’re in for a lot of hurt.
- SketchySeaBeast 6y agoHe argues that that's going to happen in July. I just can't see the States letting that happening. Here in Canada they are continually expanding out benefits, and I think the States will have to follow that as well. I can't see the tap being just turned off.
- SantalBlush 6y agoRight, even our federal shutdowns eventually come to an end with both parties reaching a budget agreement. The consequences of neglecting this unemployment crisis would be worse than a prolonged shutdown.
- derg 6y agoThere are enough people completely divorced from reality in congress and in and around the presidency that it will potentially get incredibly hairy. I can absolutely see it getting to the absolute brink before they suddenly realize "oh shit this is bad" and pass an emergency "freedom payment" which again will be a one time thing and not be completely enough. My pessimism says we're also going to be dancing from one stimulus to another without addressing the long term
- vmchale 6y agoGiven who's in charge of the CDC + Senate I can't say I'm holding my breath.
- sremani 6y agoThink of all predictions as set of possible outcomes. Yes, there is a possible decade long depression outcome. Based on my reading its W recovery staggered growth, with US pulling back all its supply chains to North America and Export-Oriented economies holding the bag. These economic and global dislocations resulting in events we have not seen Post-WW2. In spite of all these, US/North America is where you would rather be than say, Europe, Africa or even Asia.
- stepbeek 6y ago> In spite of all these, US/North America is where you would rather be than say, Europe, Africa or even Asia. Why?
- magicsmoke 6y agoLower population density and land that's only been tapped for a few centuries instead of millennia. When the famines and natural disasters start, it's going to hit the old world a lot harder than the new.
- stepbeek 6y agoI thought the parent to my comment was more an assertion around economic woes, but I'll bite. I'm interpreting your response as an assertion around the USA doing better in the case of major climate shift. I don't perceive the US to be making significant effort towards more sustainable agriculture (compared to say the Netherlands) or keeping pace in proportion of energy generated from renewables or implementing meaningful social policy to address the disproportionate impact a climate crisis has on the poor. The US has a lot to recommend it, but I find your argument to be a bit lacking in convincing me it'll have and easier time in the coming decades.
- JamalW 6y agoAssumes those continents don’t develop tech to combat climate change or famine. Assumes those continents don’t colonize other continents.
- djsumdog 6y agoPredicting the future is inherently stupid. Trying to show what will happen in our complex world using models is the stuff of Science Fiction. Going back to the article and economics, if you follow David Graber (Debt The First 5,000 Years and Bullshit Jobs), he talks in his books about how every great civilization needs to have debt resets. Going back to the Babylonians, the Sumerians, and tons of others, there were always leaders or kings or emperors who would rise to power on the promise of debt relief. Israel had the year of Jubilee, where ever 50 years debts would be forgiven and slaves set free. Continue inflationary debt is never sustainable. At some point, the world bank will lose its influence, smaller autocratic States will pull out of the "debt" they "owe" to their "liberators" and larger States will no longer be able to extract resources without force, that they're going to have a harder time paying for. Debt reset needs to happen. Ever American student loan, loans with ballooning interest, medical debt, debt that's normally written off, debt that's never written off ... at some point we need less tracking and a bigger reset for each human being to start fresh.
- tonyedgecombe 6y agoStudent loan debt is interesting because it could swing an election. All it needs is a candidate offering to write it off and a large enough portion of the population that stands to gain. I'll be surprised if it doesn't happen in the next decade or two.
- lotsofpulp 6y agoI doubt it. Less than 15% of adults have student loan debt, and only a small portion of those are past due. Plus young people don’t vote. The only thing that might happen, is what has happened which is to delay payments or maybe interest, but politically, student loan borrowers are not a sympathetic group to other voters. https://www.investopedia.com/student-loan-debt-2019-statistics-and-outlook-4772007 https://www.investopedia.com/student-loan-debt-2019-statisti...
- sp332 6y agoPresidential elections have been pretty close lately. A candidate might increase their odds of winning substantially by swinging a fraction of a percent of actual voters.
- aeternum 6y agoSome interesting points but some of them are not internally consistent: Author claims that the stock market is up because people are sitting at home day-trading driving up prices. Then a few paragraphs later claims that cash is king and people are unlikely to spend. Author claims that 2009 Fed spending made sense because it was an aggregate demand issue. That was not very clear then as it was unclear that many of the mortgage-backed securities actually had a positive value. Coronavirus in comparison is much more clearly a demand issue (people are effectively being ordered not to go out and spend).
- mrlanderson 6y agosorry but lmao at people who think small daytrading drives these markets. The author has zero credibility. Never listen to this dangerous moron ever again. He doesn't deserve a conversation thread.
- 0x262d 6y agoImportant to understand with all the US-China stuff - working class people in both countries should mutually benefit from higher productivity, the open development and sharing of technology, from trade, etc. The only thing driving a rift and opening up a "cold war" is that US and Chinese capitalists can never get along because they are competing for the same pool of profits. Everyone else has pretty mutually beneficial material interests. So when you read about "the Chinese" (who in China?) listening to you through your toaster, there's really no reason to care or pay attention to that absurdly nationalist sentence, just as there's no reason for anyone in China specifically to listen, unless you're the owner of a significant portion of a technology company and are hiding that company's tech knowledge from the rest of the world in order to profit from it. And that's against all of the rest of our interests.
- chroem- 6y agoA lot of people in this country have lost their jobs due to outsourcing.
- 0x262d 6y agoTheir jobs were most often outsourced by US companies looking to get higher profits from cheaper labor. It would be a lot more effective to solve this by enforcing equivalent, high working standards across the world, rather than blaming Chinese people for desperately needing a job like everyone else. But then profits would be lower, oh no.
- sokoloff 6y agoNot only would profits be lower (disincentive for companies), Chinese [or other off-shore] employment prospects would be worse (disincentive for them to comply). Trade makes people better off in general, but it doesn't make every person better off.
- 0x262d 6y agoI don't understand, disincentive for who, to comply with what?
- contrapunter 6y agoCan anyone explain why banning credit/usury wouldn't help in the longer term?
- quacked 6y agoWhat, and force people reconcile with the real cost of owning material goods and receiving services? Sir, this is America.
- contrapunter 6y agoI've also heard private debt jubilee put forward as a solution. Don't know which (if either) is preferable.
- dehrmann 6y agoI'd take what Roubini says with a grain of salt. Economists have predicted 10 of the last 7 recessions, and a broken clock is right twice daily. In recent history, he was a bit late to the coronavirus party, not really being on-board until late February. Preppers were all over it in January.
- NotSammyHagar 6y agoPreppers also predicted 10 of the last 1 world debacles too, so that's not very predictive either (year 2000 crisis, nuclear war, etc). I'm no better myself. However, in 2008 there was a giant amount of poor mortgage debt, it was a real thing. We've had near 0% interest rates in much of the western world, more in europe, wasteful debt increases and tax cuts in the us that didn't go to long term useful infrastructure. And our economy hasn't been growing that much. China has a giant debt bomb, how will that work out?
- dehrmann 6y agoNever mind China's debt bomb. Their demographic bomb is bigger. It's going to look like Japan in 20 years. Between that, the possibility of parts splitting off, and the possibility of the fall of the Communist part, The "China will overtake the US" narrative is premature. If Xi can hold it together, maybe it will, but that's not a given.
- NotSammyHagar 6y agoI forgot about the age issue and also the too many males, too few females in China. The Communist part is looking pretty strong right now. I wonder, is there any reason to hope that China will eventually democratize? I see nothing like the demographic trends that is so clear. China has a lot of room to grow their economy and military before the demographic issues hit. Look at Japan, very powerful in both dimensions.
- StephenAmar 6y agoHe is making lots of wild predictions about technology and automation. 5G in toasters? Come on. Is 5G really such a ground breaking technology that will change everything? Automating car manufacturing? Tesla tried and it failed them - https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/13/17234296/tesla-model-3-robots-production-hell-elon-musk https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/13/17234296/tesla-model-3-ro... No way Hyundai can do it tomorrow. Replacing janitors with Roombas?? What the hell is he talking about. Lots of promises about AI, but so far, it has underdelivered.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago> Is 5G really such a ground breaking technology that will change everything? If it enables cheap enough connectivity - i.e. being able to place a 5G chip with a prepaid SIM card in a low-cost device - then absolutely, companies will jump at the opportunity to do everything from inventing bullshit "smart" "value-add" features, to selling surveillance to marketers.
- mirimir 6y agoIt sounds a lot like the jackpot, as William Gibson calls it in Peripheral and Agency.