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I'm not an economics nor employment expert so can someone who knows more about this explain to me what the projections are for the next 6 months? Are the major

I'm not an economics nor employment expert so can someone who knows more about this explain to me what the projections are for the next 6 months? Are the majority of these people expected to find work again at the same (or better) pay? Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white collar jobs being lost as well? Obviously I see the stories about some tech companies letting people go but the numbers are tiny compared to the numbers discussed in articles like this. Just for clarification I am not American so I am asking as an outsider who is quite shocked when I see statements like "a quarter of the US working age population". Where I am, France, there have been some job losses however nothing close to the numbers I see in America. My gut reaction to such numbers is worrying, perhaps even terrifying, but I know very little about how things work in America so is this a case of the media playing with the numbers when in reality that number will drop back to normal levels soon or is this a true unemployment disaster for the long term?

andreilys 6y ago
Many industries which employed these workers will not recover for a very long time (if ever). It also introduces the need for companies to automate operations, as a way to hedge the risk of employees getting sick (or making customers feel safer interacting with robots). The other thing to consider is that during boom periods (like the previous one), headcount is filled, regardless of whether the position is needed. Often times one person can do the work of 6, but the department/company wants to appear like it’s growing so it will hire 6. Now that economic belt is tightening, we’ll see more bare bones skeleton crews. So between those three things I think it will be highly unlikely that we return to pre-covid unemployment levels for quite some time (if ever).
- satysin 6y ago
  This is what I had assumed. With businesses closing some jobs are literally lost. Talking with friends and family I have realised most of us have changed how we plan to do things in the future. E.g. going out less will have a big impact on restaurants, cafes, cinemas, etc. If a lot of people feel the same as I/we do it will make recovery for such businesses harder. I see a lot of people talking about things "returning to normal" once the lockdown is lifted but I just can't see that happening. In my opinion this virus has fundamentally changed how many, many people will go about their lives for much longer than the lockdown. Perhaps I am wrong but it seems (most?) American politicians expect all of these jobs will magically return in a few weeks once states open up to how they were before?
- Theodores 6y ago
  David Graeber wrote about bullshit jobs - including those you describe. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs We have all been in offices where there are bullshit jobs. If these jobs go then it will be a while before they come back. These jobs are a bit like the junk that collects on your computer, filling up space and doing nothing. All of it was important once. But then you move to a new computer, install your software and project files to get on with work never needing the detritus again.
  - satysin 6y ago
    I had not heard of this book but just grabbed it on Kindle and read the Preface and holy shit yes. So many bullshit jobs. The first thing to pop into my head is a conversation with my wife a few weeks ago about a couple of people she works with. They are "directors" in the company but my wife has always commented that their jobs are literally pointless. They "champion" things but never actually get involved other than to be updated on what is happening. Basically they spent their time flying around the world for meetings but in terms of real output they never actually had anything to show. They always claimed to be "so busy it is crazy!" but never seemed to produce any quantifiable results. It seemed the positions existed because it is just expected at a big video game company would have a lot of super talented people at director level. Why I don't know, I guess because at some point they were actually useful? Since working from home and being unable to travel for these super important meetings a few of these people are losing their minds as they have nothing to do and surprise! everything else is going along just fine. The teams all communicate as needed. Deliveries have still been made on time, etc. Sure there has been some impacts with contractors and suppliers being shut but nothing internal has been impacted. My wife is secretly hoping these positions evaporate as they have no demonstrable benefit to the business. For almost 3 months these people have done literally nothing and nobody has noticed.
generalpass 6y ago
It is an unmitigated disaster. Prior to the lockdowns, there were ~120 million people in the workforce. One-third has been knocked out, so the current workforce is 80 million, thus 50% of the current workforce has applied for unemployment. The last week's numbers indicate that just over 2% of the workforce was lost, which is the lowest percentage yet, but only a little lower than the previous week's. It is only so many more weeks we have left to have a percentage that can leave the workforce. There have never been millions of people losing their jobs in a week, now it is every week. There are regular stories about restaurants opening, but when I read them I can see clearly the restaurants are unlikely to be able to survive profitably under the new rules. I'm not sure what the rules look like for other employers. Are manufacturers going to be required to retool their entire production line to meet these requirements? This is more likely to lead the manufacturer to at least temporarily shut down, if not permanently. How are apparel stores supposed to make money? And wedding gown makers? Is no one to try on clothes before purchase any more? These businesses will likely remain closed until the full ramifications of the new legislation are made clear. I'm sure there are many examples of these things everywhere, so likely what will happen is businesses will just open and ignore the rules, and with such rampant rule-breaking either entire city staff are converted to rule enforcement, or the rules are selectively enforced (e.g., cronies shut down competitors), though even that won't work out because employees will sue employers out of business. Employees let-go due to lockdowns are making some nice free money, and incentivizing them to go back to work before their free money dries up is incredibly difficult. It's not a clear equation, but the employee is looking at incremental earnings, meaning that going to work for 40 hours may not be worth an extra $150 in take home, so either the employer has to offer more or wait until someone comes in to work. There is also the still undiscussed issue of the rolling regional lockdowns that Fauci and others described earlier in all of this. I suspect most people, including business owners, did not catch these stories and it seems like they've been a bit memory-holed, but if they do enact such policies, then I suspect there will be a domino effect where other businesses choose to close before they are further in arrears. There are also secondary effects coming in the form of incredible government budget deficits. The likely policy response will be more debt and increased taxes, but this typically makes business growth more sluggish.
- satysin 6y ago
mrep 6y ago
> Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white collar jobs being lost as well? The government posts stats [0]. For the more blue/white collar work: Education, training and library occupations is at 14.0%, Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations is at 18.6% hit which is not surprising as all sports are pretty much cancelled currently. The service industry was really hit though at 27.1%. Food preparation and serving related occupations is at 41%, Personal care and service occupations is at 39% for example. [0]: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea30.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea30.htm
ardy42 6y ago
> Are the majority of these people expected to find work again at the same (or better) pay? > Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white collar jobs being lost as well? Many Jobs May Vanish Forever as Layoffs Mount: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/economy/coronavirus-unemployment-claims.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/economy/coronavi... > The economy that does come back is likely to look quite different from the one that closed. If social distancing rules become the new normal, causing thinner crowds in restaurants, theaters and stores, at sports arenas, and on airplanes, then fewer workers will be required. > Large companies already expect more of their workers to continue to work remotely and say they plan to reduce their real estate footprint, which will reduce the foot traffic that feeds nearby restaurants, shops, nail salons and other businesses. > Concerns about working in close quarters and too much social interaction could also accelerate the trend toward automation, some economists say. > New jobs are being created, mostly at low wages — for delivery drivers, warehouse workers and cleaners. But many more jobs will vanish.

andreilys 6y ago

Many industries which employed these workers will not recover for a very long time (if ever). It also introduces the need for companies to automate operations, as a way to hedge the risk of employees getting sick (or making customers feel safer interacting with robots). The other thing to consider is that during boom periods (like the previous one), headcount is filled, regardless of whether the position is needed. Often times one person can do the work of 6, but the department/company wants to appear like it’s growing so it will hire 6. Now that economic belt is tightening, we’ll see more bare bones skeleton crews. So between those three things I think it will be highly unlikely that we return to pre-covid unemployment levels for quite some time (if ever).

satysin 6y ago
This is what I had assumed. With businesses closing some jobs are literally lost. Talking with friends and family I have realised most of us have changed how we plan to do things in the future. E.g. going out less will have a big impact on restaurants, cafes, cinemas, etc. If a lot of people feel the same as I/we do it will make recovery for such businesses harder. I see a lot of people talking about things "returning to normal" once the lockdown is lifted but I just can't see that happening. In my opinion this virus has fundamentally changed how many, many people will go about their lives for much longer than the lockdown. Perhaps I am wrong but it seems (most?) American politicians expect all of these jobs will magically return in a few weeks once states open up to how they were before?
Theodores 6y ago
David Graeber wrote about bullshit jobs - including those you describe. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs We have all been in offices where there are bullshit jobs. If these jobs go then it will be a while before they come back. These jobs are a bit like the junk that collects on your computer, filling up space and doing nothing. All of it was important once. But then you move to a new computer, install your software and project files to get on with work never needing the detritus again.
- satysin 6y ago
  I had not heard of this book but just grabbed it on Kindle and read the Preface and holy shit yes. So many bullshit jobs. The first thing to pop into my head is a conversation with my wife a few weeks ago about a couple of people she works with. They are "directors" in the company but my wife has always commented that their jobs are literally pointless. They "champion" things but never actually get involved other than to be updated on what is happening. Basically they spent their time flying around the world for meetings but in terms of real output they never actually had anything to show. They always claimed to be "so busy it is crazy!" but never seemed to produce any quantifiable results. It seemed the positions existed because it is just expected at a big video game company would have a lot of super talented people at director level. Why I don't know, I guess because at some point they were actually useful? Since working from home and being unable to travel for these super important meetings a few of these people are losing their minds as they have nothing to do and surprise! everything else is going along just fine. The teams all communicate as needed. Deliveries have still been made on time, etc. Sure there has been some impacts with contractors and suppliers being shut but nothing internal has been impacted. My wife is secretly hoping these positions evaporate as they have no demonstrable benefit to the business. For almost 3 months these people have done literally nothing and nobody has noticed.

generalpass 6y ago

It is an unmitigated disaster. Prior to the lockdowns, there were ~120 million people in the workforce. One-third has been knocked out, so the current workforce is 80 million, thus 50% of the current workforce has applied for unemployment. The last week's numbers indicate that just over 2% of the workforce was lost, which is the lowest percentage yet, but only a little lower than the previous week's. It is only so many more weeks we have left to have a percentage that can leave the workforce. There have never been millions of people losing their jobs in a week, now it is every week. There are regular stories about restaurants opening, but when I read them I can see clearly the restaurants are unlikely to be able to survive profitably under the new rules. I'm not sure what the rules look like for other employers. Are manufacturers going to be required to retool their entire production line to meet these requirements? This is more likely to lead the manufacturer to at least temporarily shut down, if not permanently. How are apparel stores supposed to make money? And wedding gown makers? Is no one to try on clothes before purchase any more? These businesses will likely remain closed until the full ramifications of the new legislation are made clear. I'm sure there are many examples of these things everywhere, so likely what will happen is businesses will just open and ignore the rules, and with such rampant rule-breaking either entire city staff are converted to rule enforcement, or the rules are selectively enforced (e.g., cronies shut down competitors), though even that won't work out because employees will sue employers out of business. Employees let-go due to lockdowns are making some nice free money, and incentivizing them to go back to work before their free money dries up is incredibly difficult. It's not a clear equation, but the employee is looking at incremental earnings, meaning that going to work for 40 hours may not be worth an extra $150 in take home, so either the employer has to offer more or wait until someone comes in to work. There is also the still undiscussed issue of the rolling regional lockdowns that Fauci and others described earlier in all of this. I suspect most people, including business owners, did not catch these stories and it seems like they've been a bit memory-holed, but if they do enact such policies, then I suspect there will be a domino effect where other businesses choose to close before they are further in arrears. There are also secondary effects coming in the form of incredible government budget deficits. The likely policy response will be more debt and increased taxes, but this typically makes business growth more sluggish.

satysin 6y ago

mrep 6y ago

> Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white collar jobs being lost as well? The government posts stats [0]. For the more blue/white collar work: Education, training and library occupations is at 14.0%, Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations is at 18.6% hit which is not surprising as all sports are pretty much cancelled currently. The service industry was really hit though at 27.1%. Food preparation and serving related occupations is at 41%, Personal care and service occupations is at 39% for example. [0]: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea30.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea30.htm

ardy42 6y ago

> Are the majority of these people expected to find work again at the same (or better) pay? > Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white collar jobs being lost as well? Many Jobs May Vanish Forever as Layoffs Mount: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/economy/coronavirus-unemployment-claims.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/business/economy/coronavi... > The economy that does come back is likely to look quite different from the one that closed. If social distancing rules become the new normal, causing thinner crowds in restaurants, theaters and stores, at sports arenas, and on airplanes, then fewer workers will be required. > Large companies already expect more of their workers to continue to work remotely and say they plan to reduce their real estate footprint, which will reduce the foot traffic that feeds nearby restaurants, shops, nail salons and other businesses. > Concerns about working in close quarters and too much social interaction could also accelerate the trend toward automation, some economists say. > New jobs are being created, mostly at low wages — for delivery drivers, warehouse workers and cleaners. But many more jobs will vanish.