5 ms·

US workers seeking jobless aid near 40M

46 points by sahin-boydas 6y ago

toomuchtodo 6y ago
For context, this is roughy 25 percent of the US working age population (~157 million people [1]). BLS participation rate date can be found here [2], but will have some lag to it. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/29/facts-about-american-workers/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/29/facts-about... [2] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
- chewz 6y ago
  And working population of Nigeria is 111 milion. > The attackers have used detailed information about U.S. citizens, such as social security numbers that may have been obtained from cyber hacks of years past, to file claims on behalf of people who have not been laid off, officials said. The attack has exploited state unemployment systems at a time when they are straining to process a crush of claims from an employment crisis unmatched since the Great Depression. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/16/us/coronavirus-unemployment-fraud-secret-service-washington.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/16/us/coronavirus-unemployme...
  - Pfhreak 6y ago
    Comparing a fraud ring from Nigeria to the entire working population of Nigeria is not a good look.
- Izkata 6y ago
  For more context, the highest previously recorded was 24.9%, during the Great Depression.
Zenst 6y ago
Makes you wonder if all the trials of universal basic income would be viewed differently in light of current events as a model better suited to handle the bumps in life and with that, overall make things more stable.
- ThrowawayR2 6y ago
  A global economic collapse and mass unemployment is exactly when the funding models for UBI undergo a catastrophic meltdown. So, we need wonder no more.
  - voisin 6y ago
    This response makes no sense. We don’t cancel unemployment, social security, etc in these instances. UBI is meant to replace these programs and by giving everyone a guaranteed income even in bad times, it allows some certainty at the household level which reduces stress and keeps consumption higher to keep the economy from melting down into a depression.
    - ThrowawayR2 6y ago
      Unemployment is pre-funded through unemployment insurance taxes for the working years of the recipient. Social Security is pre-funded through SS taxes for the working years of the recipient. UBI is pre-funded by...? Nothing?
      - Zenst 6y ago
        Well, as UBI would moot unemployment payments and Social security payments, then I'm curious why you would feel that nothing would fund it.
        ChrisLomont 6y ago
        Those two don't even begin to cover anything near a UBI needs. Do a simple estimate of how you think UBI would work and cost, and be sure that it doesn't screw those already on SS, and post here. Every single place I've seen the math worked out it needs either massive tax increases, screws the needy already on some form of targeted assistance, or is woefully low. And I've never seen one that is "universal." All are merely ways to tax the working to fund the unworking.
satysin 6y ago
I'm not an economics nor employment expert so can someone who knows more about this explain to me what the projections are for the next 6 months? Are the majority of these people expected to find work again at the same (or better) pay? Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white collar jobs being lost as well? Obviously I see the stories about some tech companies letting people go but the numbers are tiny compared to the numbers discussed in articles like this. Just for clarification I am not American so I am asking as an outsider who is quite shocked when I see statements like "a quarter of the US working age population". Where I am, France, there have been some job losses however nothing close to the numbers I see in America. My gut reaction to such numbers is worrying, perhaps even terrifying, but I know very little about how things work in America so is this a case of the media playing with the numbers when in reality that number will drop back to normal levels soon or is this a true unemployment disaster for the long term?
- andreilys 6y ago
  Many industries which employed these workers will not recover for a very long time (if ever). It also introduces the need for companies to automate operations, as a way to hedge the risk of employees getting sick (or making customers feel safer interacting with robots). The other thing to consider is that during boom periods (like the previous one), headcount is filled, regardless of whether the position is needed. Often times one person can do the work of 6, but the department/company wants to appear like it’s growing so it will hire 6. Now that economic belt is tightening, we’ll see more bare bones skeleton crews. So between those three things I think it will be highly unlikely that we return to pre-covid unemployment levels for quite some time (if ever).
  - satysin 6y ago
    This is what I had assumed. With businesses closing some jobs are literally lost. Talking with friends and family I have realised most of us have changed how we plan to do things in the future. E.g. going out less will have a big impact on restaurants, cafes, cinemas, etc. If a lot of people feel the same as I/we do it will make recovery for such businesses harder. I see a lot of people talking about things "returning to normal" once the lockdown is lifted but I just can't see that happening. In my opinion this virus has fundamentally changed how many, many people will go about their lives for much longer than the lockdown. Perhaps I am wrong but it seems (most?) American politicians expect all of these jobs will magically return in a few weeks once states open up to how they were before?

46 points by sahin-boydas 6y ago

For context, this is roughy 25 percent of the US working age population (~157 million people [1]). BLS participation rate date can be found here [2], but will have some lag to it. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/29/facts-about-american-workers/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/29/facts-about... [2] https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

chewz 6y ago
And working population of Nigeria is 111 milion. > The attackers have used detailed information about U.S. citizens, such as social security numbers that may have been obtained from cyber hacks of years past, to file claims on behalf of people who have not been laid off, officials said. The attack has exploited state unemployment systems at a time when they are straining to process a crush of claims from an employment crisis unmatched since the Great Depression. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/16/us/coronavirus-unemployment-fraud-secret-service-washington.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/16/us/coronavirus-unemployme...
- Pfhreak 6y ago
  Comparing a fraud ring from Nigeria to the entire working population of Nigeria is not a good look.
Izkata 6y ago
For more context, the highest previously recorded was 24.9%, during the Great Depression.

Zenst 6y ago

Makes you wonder if all the trials of universal basic income would be viewed differently in light of current events as a model better suited to handle the bumps in life and with that, overall make things more stable.

ThrowawayR2 6y ago
A global economic collapse and mass unemployment is exactly when the funding models for UBI undergo a catastrophic meltdown. So, we need wonder no more.
- voisin 6y ago
  This response makes no sense. We don’t cancel unemployment, social security, etc in these instances. UBI is meant to replace these programs and by giving everyone a guaranteed income even in bad times, it allows some certainty at the household level which reduces stress and keeps consumption higher to keep the economy from melting down into a depression.
  - ThrowawayR2 6y ago
    Unemployment is pre-funded through unemployment insurance taxes for the working years of the recipient. Social Security is pre-funded through SS taxes for the working years of the recipient. UBI is pre-funded by...? Nothing?
    - Zenst 6y ago
      Well, as UBI would moot unemployment payments and Social security payments, then I'm curious why you would feel that nothing would fund it.
      - ChrisLomont 6y ago
        Those two don't even begin to cover anything near a UBI needs. Do a simple estimate of how you think UBI would work and cost, and be sure that it doesn't screw those already on SS, and post here. Every single place I've seen the math worked out it needs either massive tax increases, screws the needy already on some form of targeted assistance, or is woefully low. And I've never seen one that is "universal." All are merely ways to tax the working to fund the unworking.

satysin 6y ago

I'm not an economics nor employment expert so can someone who knows more about this explain to me what the projections are for the next 6 months? Are the majority of these people expected to find work again at the same (or better) pay? Are these lost jobs primarily "low skill" jobs? Or are there a lot of white collar jobs being lost as well? Obviously I see the stories about some tech companies letting people go but the numbers are tiny compared to the numbers discussed in articles like this. Just for clarification I am not American so I am asking as an outsider who is quite shocked when I see statements like "a quarter of the US working age population". Where I am, France, there have been some job losses however nothing close to the numbers I see in America. My gut reaction to such numbers is worrying, perhaps even terrifying, but I know very little about how things work in America so is this a case of the media playing with the numbers when in reality that number will drop back to normal levels soon or is this a true unemployment disaster for the long term?

andreilys 6y ago
Many industries which employed these workers will not recover for a very long time (if ever). It also introduces the need for companies to automate operations, as a way to hedge the risk of employees getting sick (or making customers feel safer interacting with robots). The other thing to consider is that during boom periods (like the previous one), headcount is filled, regardless of whether the position is needed. Often times one person can do the work of 6, but the department/company wants to appear like it’s growing so it will hire 6. Now that economic belt is tightening, we’ll see more bare bones skeleton crews. So between those three things I think it will be highly unlikely that we return to pre-covid unemployment levels for quite some time (if ever).
- satysin 6y ago
  This is what I had assumed. With businesses closing some jobs are literally lost. Talking with friends and family I have realised most of us have changed how we plan to do things in the future. E.g. going out less will have a big impact on restaurants, cafes, cinemas, etc. If a lot of people feel the same as I/we do it will make recovery for such businesses harder. I see a lot of people talking about things "returning to normal" once the lockdown is lifted but I just can't see that happening. In my opinion this virus has fundamentally changed how many, many people will go about their lives for much longer than the lockdown. Perhaps I am wrong but it seems (most?) American politicians expect all of these jobs will magically return in a few weeks once states open up to how they were before?