3 ms·
Global natural herd immunity could suppress the disease cases to next to nothing. The problem is there's a very high price to pay before we get there.
by wyuenho 6y ago
Global natural herd immunity could suppress the disease cases to next to nothing. The problem is there's a very high price to pay before we get there.
- adventured 6y agoIt's highly likely a vaccine is the only thing that will work. The virus would need to spread a lot faster globally than it has so far to accomplish that mass herd immunity before the people hit in the first months lose immunity and become susceptible again. At the rate it's going, the virus will still be raging in numerous parts of the world toward the last quarter of the year, just in time for influenza season to start up again in the northern hemisphere. It's the scenario where you persistently have cases in many parts of the world that are able to reinfect locations that have built up herd immunity previously (and then lost that immunity), so the virus just keeps going around the planet and you can't fully get rid of it. Whack-a-mole style. Perhaps very long-lasting travel lock-downs could isolate that risk somewhat, however I'm skeptical about that working effectively as the world is still super connected in terms of supply chains and transiting goods (and the people that move them), mixed with the nature of this virus (specifically how easy it is to spread).
- whatshisface 6y agoThe parent said "like other SARS variant," they were not talking about herd immunity. MERS and SARS-1 did not get anywhere near herd immunity, they were simply too slow-spreading to catch on. (I'm not sure if MERS can spread human-to-human at all, and SARS-1 was relatively slow.)