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No, that's the first option - it will eventually infect the whole world no matter how much you improve outcomes or slow it down. Unmitigated R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is
by missosoup 6y ago
No, that's the first option - it will eventually infect the whole world no matter how much you improve outcomes or slow it down. Unmitigated R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is extremely high, we can't keep it contained with spreaders all over the globe creating micro clusters every day. I didn't say it'll kill the whole world, just infect.
Many countries have already brought their case rates down to almost 0, and every single one that attempted to resume economic activity saw the case rates spike again, with many now re-introducing distancing measures again. This genie is not going back into the bottle.
The first option is actually potentially more viable on a reasonable timeline than vaccination, especially if we manage to find some kind of effective therapeutics which reduce the ICU and mortality rates.
There is however a potential issue, which is based on SARS data, immunity in recovered individuals only lasts 1-2 years. So unless there's a concerted effort to eradicate via immunisation, there's a measurable risk that SARS-CoV-2 will become a seasonal repeating wave like Influenza.
- lbeltrame 6y agoI have no hard data (and I don't think anyone has, at this point), but eradication is IMO going to be tricky even if we have a very potent vaccine, at least looking at how much it took for chicken pox.
- missosoup 6y agoOh absolutely. Eradicating this thing via vaccination any time in the next 24 months will take a completely unprecedented feat of worldwide collaboration. But I'm optimistic, the current situation has everyone focused on the issue. Except Trump trying to get some special deals for early access or whatever the fuck it is that he's doing.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoAny country that physically manufactures vaccine doses isn't going to allow many exports until they have a sufficient domestic supply. That's not just a Trump thing.
- lbeltrame 6y agoThat's precisely why many vaccine producers are seeking partnership and starting manufacturing at risk. As an example, Moderna teamed up with Lonza (and also got a big grant from BARDA). Oxford / Vaccitech has deals with Astra Zeneca, Merck, and a few other manufacturers.