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It's getting harder to trust any data coming from state officials as they move to censor or manipulate it so that they can make a better case for reopening too

It's getting harder to trust any data coming from state officials as they move to censor or manipulate it so that they can make a better case for reopening too soon. A lot of this tension can be seen as local governments attempt to implement their own coronavirus restrictions only for the state to override them like here in Texas. I'm assuming the plan is that when we inevitably get hit by a second wave they can just blame the businesses or the counties for not doing a good enough job or something. Considering how much of a joke the reopening guidelines have been and how little the state is willing to enforce them.

mcshicks 6y ago
While it's not quick I am wondering if the uncensored data would be available under freedom of information type laws.
- icelancer 6y ago
  We'll find out in a month or so in WA state. I've filed a request and plan on making it public.
chrisco255 6y ago
I'll tell you this, as an anecdote, my mother works in a hospital in central Florida, in The Villages, the largest retirement community in the state. She says it's never been so slow. They've had to cut shifts, and she's seen worse flu seasons than what they went through over the past 2 months. They were never at more than 50% capacity. And they never had more than a dozen Covid patients at any given time.
- whycombagator 6y ago
  Interesting, but perhaps that anecdote makes sense? It’s kind of middle of nowhere FL with a low population density. Everyone is retired and the closest major airports are Tampa and Orlando (I think) and I suspect visitors/tourism to The Villages are relatively low in number. Additionally, from what I last saw around 50% of confirmed cases were in South FL. Where there are major international airports, plentiful tourism, and greater population density.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    These retirees are generally well off financially. They frequently return home to their families out of state and travel a lot whether by cruise, RV, or air. They dine out constantly and meet in the town squares for dancing and social activities in large numbers. I still strongly suspect there's some x-factor for Covid that protects people from it's worst effects. That could be vitamin D levels or some other vaccine they already received. At any rate, this is why I argue each local community should deal with situation as it evolves. You can't pretend the virus is hitting everywhere equally at once and it makes no sense to shut businesses down when your local hospital is at less than 50% capacity.
    - cozzyd 6y ago
      Are they currently "dining out constantly and meeting in the town square for dancing"? I suspect they probably are aware of the high IFR in their demographic and acting accordingly.
- bosswipe 6y ago
  That's happening everywhere, people are staying away from hospitals.
- rurban 6y ago
  But this is the most critical area worldwide, much more important to protect than New York. As you said, it's the largest density of seniors. 50% is nothing if it breaks out there. Glad that they could avoid that so far.
pacala 6y ago
The major challenge is that we either hide for an indefinite amount of time, which destroys the wealth pipes, aka the economy, or we get hit by a second pandemic wave. There are NO good options. Cherry on top: everything is hyperpartisan, which leads to the destruction of public trust. In some alternate reality, Mr. Trump and Ms. Pelosi would hold a joint press conference and tell us the cold facts: There are NO good options. Many people are going to die, and there is nothing anyone can do to indefinitely prevent that. Let's at least hold our heads up with dignity.
- pjc50 6y ago
  Meanwhile on the other side of the world countries are reopening with a fraction of the deaths, because their measures actually worked.
  - TeMPOraL 6y ago
    Or, we're all cooking our books too. I mean, I am really trying hard to not be overly cynical, but I'm so thoroughly disappointed with everyone's reaction to COVID-19 - from the well-known failures of the US Federal Government, all the way to my little part of the planet and the Poland's mistreatment of healthcare (of which I've heard plenty from inside the healthcare system) and attempts to have elections this month anyway (ended up postponed at the last minute)... At this point I'm assuming all reported statistics everywhere are +/- 2 orders of magnitude, and I'll be keeping every protective measure I can until it's unambiguous that my region has dealt with the virus successfully, or until I'm forced to stop keeping those measures by fiat.
- vkou 6y ago
  Actually, you have a choice between three things. 1. Hide for an indefinite amount of time, devastating the economy. 2. Re-open, get hit by a second wave, also devastating the economy. (Economies don't do great in the middle of an uncontrolled pandemic.) 3. Do the hard work of getting public health efforts, employment law, and testing logistics to the point where you can re-open safely. Guess which option we're going with?
j4kp07 6y ago
"Flatten the curve" they said. "Don't open too soon" they said. Shutdowns don't save lives, they only delay infections. Anyone who denies that the goalpost has moved is lying to your face.
Consultant32452 6y ago
Here's the only data you need to know. Large numbers of people in every locality, from every walk of life, and from every political perspective are violating the lockdown orders. It's everywhere from the MAGA Texans to progressive NY beachgoers. So the state is losing control, but the state must maintain the illusion of control. If 10 people break the lockdown you arrest them. If 10k people break the lockdown, it's no longer a lockdown. So the state is just catching up to the reality on the streets, trying to pretend they are still in charge of the decision. And the state will twist themselves and the truth into a funny looking pretzel to do it.
- soco 6y ago
  Isn't that a kind of state failure?
- qqqwerty 6y ago
  No, the states are trying to open back up because they are not getting any help from the White House. Trump has been actively encouraging the protests and McConnell has shot down any financial support for the states. Unlike the federal government, the states can't print money, so what is the point of racking up huge deficits while the white house actively undermines your quarantine efforts? After all, Trump is going to be at the top of the ticket in November, so if you are a governor, why would you continue to enforce the politically difficult but necessary quarantine policies if Trump is going to be the one to get the credit if it succeeds. Might as well save the state finances and risk opening back up early. And if/when a second wave happens, Trumps political fortunes will likely be toast.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    Some of these states were bordering on insolvency before Covid ever began. There has been a state pension crisis brewing for years in states like Illinois. Meanwhile, you can't just print your way out of 36 million unemployed (and counting). Early estimates are that GDP will shrink by 43% in Q2 2020. Society will literally break down of this kind of economic situation continues for much longer. Economic suicide is not an option.
  - 6y ago

mcshicks 6y ago

While it's not quick I am wondering if the uncensored data would be available under freedom of information type laws.

icelancer 6y ago
We'll find out in a month or so in WA state. I've filed a request and plan on making it public.

chrisco255 6y ago

I'll tell you this, as an anecdote, my mother works in a hospital in central Florida, in The Villages, the largest retirement community in the state. She says it's never been so slow. They've had to cut shifts, and she's seen worse flu seasons than what they went through over the past 2 months. They were never at more than 50% capacity. And they never had more than a dozen Covid patients at any given time.

whycombagator 6y ago
Interesting, but perhaps that anecdote makes sense? It’s kind of middle of nowhere FL with a low population density. Everyone is retired and the closest major airports are Tampa and Orlando (I think) and I suspect visitors/tourism to The Villages are relatively low in number. Additionally, from what I last saw around 50% of confirmed cases were in South FL. Where there are major international airports, plentiful tourism, and greater population density.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  These retirees are generally well off financially. They frequently return home to their families out of state and travel a lot whether by cruise, RV, or air. They dine out constantly and meet in the town squares for dancing and social activities in large numbers. I still strongly suspect there's some x-factor for Covid that protects people from it's worst effects. That could be vitamin D levels or some other vaccine they already received. At any rate, this is why I argue each local community should deal with situation as it evolves. You can't pretend the virus is hitting everywhere equally at once and it makes no sense to shut businesses down when your local hospital is at less than 50% capacity.
  - cozzyd 6y ago
    Are they currently "dining out constantly and meeting in the town square for dancing"? I suspect they probably are aware of the high IFR in their demographic and acting accordingly.
bosswipe 6y ago
That's happening everywhere, people are staying away from hospitals.
rurban 6y ago
But this is the most critical area worldwide, much more important to protect than New York. As you said, it's the largest density of seniors. 50% is nothing if it breaks out there. Glad that they could avoid that so far.

pacala 6y ago

The major challenge is that we either hide for an indefinite amount of time, which destroys the wealth pipes, aka the economy, or we get hit by a second pandemic wave. There are NO good options. Cherry on top: everything is hyperpartisan, which leads to the destruction of public trust. In some alternate reality, Mr. Trump and Ms. Pelosi would hold a joint press conference and tell us the cold facts: There are NO good options. Many people are going to die, and there is nothing anyone can do to indefinitely prevent that. Let's at least hold our heads up with dignity.

pjc50 6y ago
Meanwhile on the other side of the world countries are reopening with a fraction of the deaths, because their measures actually worked.
- TeMPOraL 6y ago
  Or, we're all cooking our books too. I mean, I am really trying hard to not be overly cynical, but I'm so thoroughly disappointed with everyone's reaction to COVID-19 - from the well-known failures of the US Federal Government, all the way to my little part of the planet and the Poland's mistreatment of healthcare (of which I've heard plenty from inside the healthcare system) and attempts to have elections this month anyway (ended up postponed at the last minute)... At this point I'm assuming all reported statistics everywhere are +/- 2 orders of magnitude, and I'll be keeping every protective measure I can until it's unambiguous that my region has dealt with the virus successfully, or until I'm forced to stop keeping those measures by fiat.
vkou 6y ago
Actually, you have a choice between three things. 1. Hide for an indefinite amount of time, devastating the economy. 2. Re-open, get hit by a second wave, also devastating the economy. (Economies don't do great in the middle of an uncontrolled pandemic.) 3. Do the hard work of getting public health efforts, employment law, and testing logistics to the point where you can re-open safely. Guess which option we're going with?

j4kp07 6y ago

"Flatten the curve" they said. "Don't open too soon" they said. Shutdowns don't save lives, they only delay infections. Anyone who denies that the goalpost has moved is lying to your face.

Consultant32452 6y ago

Here's the only data you need to know. Large numbers of people in every locality, from every walk of life, and from every political perspective are violating the lockdown orders. It's everywhere from the MAGA Texans to progressive NY beachgoers. So the state is losing control, but the state must maintain the illusion of control. If 10 people break the lockdown you arrest them. If 10k people break the lockdown, it's no longer a lockdown. So the state is just catching up to the reality on the streets, trying to pretend they are still in charge of the decision. And the state will twist themselves and the truth into a funny looking pretzel to do it.

soco 6y ago
Isn't that a kind of state failure?
qqqwerty 6y ago
No, the states are trying to open back up because they are not getting any help from the White House. Trump has been actively encouraging the protests and McConnell has shot down any financial support for the states. Unlike the federal government, the states can't print money, so what is the point of racking up huge deficits while the white house actively undermines your quarantine efforts? After all, Trump is going to be at the top of the ticket in November, so if you are a governor, why would you continue to enforce the politically difficult but necessary quarantine policies if Trump is going to be the one to get the credit if it succeeds. Might as well save the state finances and risk opening back up early. And if/when a second wave happens, Trumps political fortunes will likely be toast.
- chrisco255 6y ago
  Some of these states were bordering on insolvency before Covid ever began. There has been a state pension crisis brewing for years in states like Illinois. Meanwhile, you can't just print your way out of 36 million unemployed (and counting). Early estimates are that GDP will shrink by 43% in Q2 2020. Society will literally break down of this kind of economic situation continues for much longer. Economic suicide is not an option.
- 6y ago