4 ms·

It’s probably waaaaaaaay lower than 1 in 200. Early 20s with no existing conditions is probably closer to 1 in 10,000 once all the asymptotic people are added t

• umanwizard 6y ago
  Right, but they could pass it to other people, so the overall population death rate, about 1 in 200, is the relevant number. Still not enough to completely stop civilization over, IMO. Not to mention the fact that we don’t even really know whether the restrictions are actually stopping infections, or just delaying them by a few months.
  • cwhiz 6y ago
    If you are in a higher risk bracket you should take extra cautions. Not dissimilar at all to people who have nut allergies. Social distancing and shelter in place is the nuclear option when we didn’t know what we were dealing with.
• adventured 6y ago
  In the US the mortality rate is 1 in 1,000 for people that catch Covid and are 24 and under. Your 1 in 10k figure is probably in the right universe. I suspect it's 2x or 3x that however. I'd be surprised if the US hasn't had 20 or 30 million cases by now. This virus is more infectious than influenza and it has now had a lot of time to make its way through the population. If you throw in the no serious pre-existing conditions factor, it might be 1 in 100,000.
  • cwhiz 6y ago
    If we take the antibody test results at face value, NYC alone has already had 2+ million cases. The state of NY may have already had 8+ million. Even if there is a significant margin of error in those tests, and there may well be, the actual denominator is many times larger than the official numbers. I’d guess that the actual number is even higher than 20-30 million but that’s as reasonable a guess as any.